Golf757075

I just spoke to my friend. He had to cut me short because rain was flooding his driveway in Albany lol. He indicated that mid January at the earliest for a colder pattern here. He said the convection is going strong in phase 6 and he thinks it should shift east over time, but no guarantee and we get colder and he said January is pretty cold in phase 8 on average. We shall see

I have a friend who teaches meterology for a college. Very smart guy. He is supposed to call me in a few hours. I have alot of questions for him lol. I will let you know what he tells me.

I watched dan satterfield, who was the chief met out of Huntsville AL on YouTube clips for that winter storm. It was wild. I lived in Hernando ms at the time and we barely got it where I was. We still managed quarter inch ice on the roads!

Then feb 1-2 1996 was a heck of a winter storm in my area. Very cold after that

Model chaos at its best lol. We do it every winter

Carver, I wished the aleutian ridge would retrograde or shift east and morph into a Alaskan ridge lol. Interesting statement. A guy who is a friend of mine on Facebook, which he does a weather page. He mentioned that the farmers almanac shows a winter storm first week in January for mid south/ tennessee valley. That would be interesting because we had one last January around same time. I think unless the nao goes west based, it will benefit east of us, but we shall see. Another case of if the nao will be able to morph from east to west based.

We haven't had a clipper in my area in a long time. Many years.

Here in jackson we haven't seen any snow or ice yet. I hated thar we had too much nw flow, but that's how it is sometimes. Hoping mother nature will throw a little winter weather sometime in the next few months

Carver, I believe if the nao can become west based, we will be in better shape. Hoping we don't squander most of January on warmer than normal. Still need a pattern reshuffle to have a chance later imo

Carver, that's good news if true! Op runs and ensembles will show a colder outcome if it's legit. If not, it won't imo.

I think a true pattern change will take place when the mjo starts to move. Takes a while to get out of warm patterns if they become established imo

Carver, no doubt we need a pattern reset. I hope that will be enough. It has been colder than normal this month, which i hope we can continue that to some extent in January. Typically niñas favor my area, but not every time

Maybe it will lead to a bigger SSW eventually this winter. That would be nice. It will take alot to beat mid Feb 2021. A week of winter storms

There was a big SSW event that led to the big cold January through early March in December. Very similar to December 2021 when it was real warm and then flipped colder but not as cold as 1984-85.

When the RMM charts show between phase 8 and cod, does that make sense to you based on convection or is there something else going on?

A -nao with a -ao would be ideal for us. I don't mind a pattern reset, as long as we can get back to cold thereafter.

Pattern where you have to be patient and hope we get what we need to get to shake things up a little down the line

Each winter is different than other winters in some ways. That's the reality of it. The trough has been too far east for my area to see anything other than glancing blows of cold air. We definitely need a pattern reshuffle I believe.

Carver, you can see LC is trying to be optimistic in his weather america newsletter in the extended range. I hope he is correct.

Its an interesting pattern with a few conflicting signals imo. I wouldn't mind a pattern that produces clippers, which my area hasn't seen in a long time. A few inches is better than no inches lol

Looks good Carver. I personally would rather have the Pacific on our side instead of the Atlantic. We have gotten shots of cold air, but no precipitation in my area. Each winter is different though. If it's front loaded, then we need to pull a rabbit out of the hat pretty soon lol

Just a pattern that sets up a better overlap of cold and precipitation. Thankfully it's still mid December

I hope it gets resolved soon. Apparently things aren't in sync where we want them to be with kelvin waves/ rosby waves etc. Larry Cosgrove is good, but he sometimes hypes things too much. He has much experience doing weather for a long time. He called for a warm December and cold mid January through March. I hope he is correct.

I agree to our nw over Alaska and nw Canada it has been cold. Need and want a mechanism to bring it more south and west.

Imo, no doubt climate change related. When you would see a winter forecast from noaa back in the 90s or 2000s, it would show more blue further south and east. Now, not so much lol. Where we are on the map, it will be difficult no matter what due to our geographical location.