We can't control the weather, which i understand, but it would be nice to see some rain and a colder pattern eventually this winter. Models are very chaotic currently
I think it's the mjo in the null phase with no true coherent signal imo. Its an interesting pattern with an east based niña and pdo weakening. Getting close to waiving the white flag on winter already unfortunately. Not sure what's going on other than speculation
Carver, ultimately we will see if the aifs ensembles are really that good compared to everything else. I still believe too many models to content with lol
Also, this Niña is now east based with the colder anomalies off of south america/Peru region. Typically when that occurs, we will see colder later than earlier in winter. 21-22 is a small example. Doesn't guarantee that, but have seen it before
Happy new year! If the cold pattern or colder pattern keeps getting delayed, it may not happen mid January. Always a concern. Typically when we have a legit pattern coming, it actually moves up in time. We shall see
Carver, typically I get excited when John homenuk posts because he knows his stuff and i haven't seen him post in a while. His screen name was earthlight back at eastern weather forum and americanwx. Im just ready for some action lol.
I think we actually get more icestorms from niñas because we get a -epo and the se ridge comes into play, stalling the fronts. I would take an icestorm over nothing lol
I hope we will get at least a 2 week window of opportunities for snow and ice. We definitely live in a interesting part of the USA when it comes to winter weather. I would take an -epo and take my chances lol