TalcottWx

My bad. I was looking at a 6z panel of the 10z run.

Just looked at the latest run of the HRRR (6z). Really snowy or is it just me? I'm estimating .4/.5 of all snow QPF near BDL.

R/S line is starting to progress SE nicely now, to our W.

Suggests many of us see 2-4" of snow from this. Then after 12z, approaching positively tilted trough amplifies, with height falls across SNE. This will provide column cooling from top down, and rain-snow line will begin to collapse NW to SE, reaching a BDL-ORH-LWM around 16z/11am, then into BOS-PVD around 18z/1pm. As mid level trough evolves into a closed circulation this afternoon, impressive comma-head forms, with all guidance indicating moderate to heavy qpf across the region this afternoon from west to east. Good model agreement that comma-head precip moves across northern CT and northern MA, including Boston. Some uncertainty how far south heavier qpf will track, possibly clipping northern RI to just south of Boston. This matches up nicely with previous configuration of winter headlines, with warnings continuing for northern MA, where high terrain and colder surface temps will promote accumulating snow more quickly. Winter weather advisories continue southward into northern CT, northern RI and northeast MA, including the city of Boston. Lower amounts here as it will take sometime for snow to accumulate on paved surfaces. Snow amounts unchanged from previous forecast, storm total approximately 4-8" across northern MA in the winter storm warning, and 2-4" in the advisory, I-90 corridor southward into northern CT/northern RI and northeast MA, including Boston. Hi res guid in good agreement on a 2 to 4 hour window of moderate to heavy snow as the comma-head moves across the region. Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour (some pixels of up to 2" per hour) is possible during this time, as modest omega becomes collocated within the DGZ. As the surface low moves offshore this afternoon, winds shift from NNE to NNW, and this will help surface temps cool, along with moderate to heavy snow providing diabatic cooling via melting, lowering ground temps, and snow accumulating on paved surfaces. Thus, expecting the late day commute to be impacted with moderate to heavy snow at times, across much of the region, mainly along and northwest of I-95.

Hopefully a nice closing shot on the backside of this thing is ultimately a sign that we have turned the page toward actual snow in SNE.

Looks like it slides ESE. Berks and Litchfield first of course. NAM says we switch further SE around 14-16z/9-11AM. Quite the flip in Eastern MA. It's 5c at 925MB at 9 PM last night over Logan. Per the NAM, 925mb will drop to -3F by 1 P.M.

r/s line has made it's furthest punch north and west I believe. Starting to see some signs that the mix line is beginning to consolidate for a march to the SE.

This needs to be watched very closely today given the timing. Could be a real mess on the roads.

Not in love with this transition west of CT river. We will flip, but looks better over to Kevin.

This wasn't issued until early this morning: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 CTZ002-232145- /O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230123T2200Z/ Hartford CT- Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks 337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Rain changing to snow late this morning and continuing into the afternoon, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, highest totals across northwest Hartford county, in the hilly terrain. * WHERE...Hartford County. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Am I too far west? I'm like 8-10 miles NW of Hartford ish

34/32 rain

Rain snow mix.

33/32 now. R/s line actually appears to be collapsing a bit.

34/32 rain

Light snow, 38/31

If we don't get snow out of this, the winter blows.

Stay patient

Nightmare outcome here.

I'm cultured. Going on the record in this one and saying 1-3" forecast needs to come up we will bust high.

Wow. Peter was deleted. What does he do for a living?

Take them up I think.

3-6" please