TalcottWx

Pretty skeptical right now of big snows far west into New England. Never really bought in to this full blizzard idea that seems to be in favor right now. Tip did a good job of explaining why. These last two euro and gfs runs are certainly solid examples. Just a moderate type of snowfall.

I really hope I'm wrong, but to say this is a slam dunk, would be misleading. 

Yeah, GFS is a foot plus for eastern MA or around a foot

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fiance is sleeping....so I'm up until 3am west coast time because she won't let me do the first call tmw. lol

Hahaha. I work at 10am again. Grr

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs nukes.

Worked overnight until 2 am. Which immediately became 3am. I had finally shut the TV off now, I see this... And I'm off go weatherbell. Damn it. 

Definite west trend on euro ensemble mean. Individual members have most low centers clustered west of the mean. 

Translation: this is coming.

Euro is definitely west. This thing is a lock for eastern sne in my opinion.

The mid level tracks are a dream. I don't need to see much else or the qpf.

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Have you been outside the past 2 days?

Talking long term

Jesus. Keep checking wxbell every day to find nice weather. Few and far between.

I have like 2-300 pictures on my phone. Not sure why my USB won't work with the desktop. Need to make a folder and share it...

Not surprised, seems stalled storms are a rarity in this era...........always bet on storms moving out earlier than forecasted.

Radar will begin to take on a more n to s orientation soon as we head onward

Might walk to the top of Dorchester Heights. If anyone knows the hood, itll be pretty got damn windy up there.

Euro still stalls...it keeps snows in E MA all day tomorrow.

Does it stall still just further east?

How long does the snow continue on the euro though?

cloud tops near nj cooling rapidly

We'll know what the deal is in the next six hours. plus a new euro at 1am. but better off than anything just watching radar and sat at this point.

Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much.

Your right on the PHL/NJ side without a doubt. Just want to clarify.. I was specifically talking about NYC and the surrounding areas near it.

I will say that NWP is pretty terrible at choosing surface low locations. I would focus more on upper level features (which admittedly is more difficult since we have so much real time MSLP data).

 

Wouldn't pick a spot far from there looking at WV.

I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swings.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=hfd

Heavy snow backing into NYC.

Sbos,  how is this grievously wrong?  It may have slightly underdone the strength of the one band over western LI but the edge of where it'd be is kind of well defined.  It's also picking up on the expanding area of moisture I think every well..coming up from the south.

 

What am I missing that you are so clearly seeing?

 

 

It's way wrong with the precip near NYC. Look at how light it is. There is a deform band on the city's doorstep as we speak.

How is this euro too far west or grievously wrong?

I just did a little comparison. The Red L is the location of our storm at 6z on the 12z euro run. There Blue L is the actual current 4z location of the storm. 

How the hell is the euro wrong yet? 12z is when NYC gets the goods on the 12z euro, and the current storm track isn't far off!

Euro is not far off with it's low placement right now FWIW.

RGEM looks too far east already to me.

Yeah, it is too far east. So is the GFS. I mean the GFS is laughable. NAM precip shield looks off to me too. It had nothing heavy near me until 6z, it's 4z and my vis is down to like 100 yds lol.

Easy to say when you're in one of the perfect spots for this. Many on here were under 24-36" and are in danger of getting the rug pulled out under them. lol

This thing is still east of the Delmarva and it's getting written off. All I'm saying. It's heading due north right now. Not northeast.