TalcottWx

it's the same thing every storm, people so impatient.. look at the radar!  lol

b**ch and whine whether its cold and dry or a blizzard. I think I need a break. It's no fun

RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

Over by lunch time? No freakin way

Some need to take deep breaths and relax.

From WPC : 990 MB...29.23 INCHES...WAS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK AND MOVING NORTHWARD

Euro is nearly spot on with the 7h from 12z run... It's getting ready to pop off the delmarva now.

I'm not going to say anything about NYC because a few posters assured us their heavy snow looked great .

 

I just mean I think the Euro/Euro ens idea of a widespread regional crushing with a massive jack in Se MA..might actually be the way to think here.

I'm with you. And I think NYC crushes later

My goodness.  I would not want to be a forecaster in Brookhaven or Albany..........starting to wonder if precip shield ever gets to them

Euro looks fine to me. Look at 5h and 7h on mesoanalysis. Once that closes off they will do very well. It also looks to be as if Eastern Mass is going to get absolutely shellacked judging by downstream radar.

I think the Euro will verify.  Look at it backing into the NYC area now.

Yeah, euro and nam look best now. I think the HVN feb 13' type of band is going to be in the eastern half of SNE this time around.

Well when I do it I pretty much just look at the early hours. Anything past 6hr...meh.

Exactly

Euro had the LP tracking NE a few more ticks before N/NNW when it had the late capture. 

22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows.

There is literally no point yet. RPM looks clueless. Honestly, euro looks pretty good so far with its 12z run.

I really like that band south of SNE for a Prov to Bos corridor

I also wouldn't even look at the HRRR or RAP for a few hours. Think of how unreliable they are at the end of their runs traditionally.

I wouldn't worry about NYC and western sne. It doesn't get fronto band apocalypse until mid levels close off. A little hairy and worrisome till it happens but... patience. Might be some cliff hanging weenies until then in NYC forum.

That's a reach lol.  Interesting either way

It's weak but of similar size and location... I know it's a reach but

No it did not.

There is a sliver of QPF nearby NYC at hour 12

Jay, do you SPC  page for that. Also do you have an idea when the euro closed off 7H and 5H on it's 12z run....this is data I have been trying to find and can't.  This is what I would like to watch

Tues 0z @ 7h

Tues 12z @ 5h

No model had that band in LI.

Euro did

mid levels aren't anywhere near closing off yet western peeps.

Wow, the GFS doesn't even look close. Not hard to tell who has a better handle right now.. Look at radar and sat.

That's a new one.  Big storms always bring out some interesting models haha.

New on wxbell. It's actually been decent

Euro/NAM look better to me right now comparing radar/qpf fields to verification imho. Rgem party looks off.

2.5km HRDPS Canadien model had the BOS/PVD/LI corridor jackpotting with a secondary jackpot on the cape at 12z. East like rgem.

Tim Kelly is driving around posting pictures of his favorite snow spots on twitter lol

Jay you've made your point clear..you think this area of Ct is going to get dry slotted while areas east and west don't. You're entitled to your thoughts. If the NAM had any support ok..but when the serf's jumped east..that should probably tell us something. But again..we don't know..and probably ..it's time to put down the models anyway and just watch what unfolds

I don't think that at all necessarily I'm being honest too. But it seems undeniable NYC will get involved in the burial, no?