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TalcottWx

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    January 2024 -- Discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

    The latest collective optimism from reading a few subforms is that Feb 10 on will rock (maybe hopefully probably ) 

    I do not think anyone has a clue that correlates to good predictability going out to mid February relating to sensible weather (because it’s insanely complex)

    I see reason for some optimism but that is all I would say at this point , bc you can usually find that in most patterns and not that many end up producing well for SE SNE , higher probability more for general SNE (especially if active ) and especially CNE , I think most tend to produce pack for elevated NNE as long as they are active (regarding feb 10 to march 10 period )and that is just the Climo 

    Feb 12th 2024... Shea's bday.

    WINDEX threat 1/14

    in New England

    Posted

    On 1/13/2024 at 7:54 AM, ORH_wxman said:

    Figured I would start a different thread for this because it has continued to improve on model guidance over the past 24-36 hours. Sunday afternoon is starting to look pretty prime for some squalls. 
     

    If we go over our old school WINDEX checklist, we look for below ingredients:

    1. Low level moisture

    2. steep lapse rates

    3. strong LI spike (source of lift)

    4. Cyclonic PVA (really this just enhances #3, but it can make an event higher end)

    All 4 of these ingredients are present in a pretty big way on Sunday.
     

    We have LL moisture in the 65-90% range which is excellent. 

    We have extremely steep lapse rates (TTs near 60!) and saturation up to around 600mb

    Have a huge LI spike of 16-18 in 12 hours and to assist that we have strong PVA with that nice shortwave. 
     

    Below is the 06z NAM for tomorrow afternoon…you can see where I circled the potent vortmax (there’s our strong PVA) and then you even have a sfc response from with that clear kink in the isobars (marked on the right)…that helps veer those winds to more southerly component ahead of the front which is what we like to see because it helps pool moisture…same thing we look for in warm season Tstorm/severe threats. 

    These types of setups are where you can pick up a quick 1-2”…perhaps even an isolated higher amount if you get into some good squalls…in addition, we’re going to have rapidly falling temps from the mid 30s down into the lower 20s within a few hours, so we’ll need to watch for flash freeze on roads in some areas. 


     

     

    IMG_0082.jpeg

    I want to be different and tell you this is a BAD, BAD thread. BAD BOY! 

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