-
Posts
28,610 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by TalcottWx
-
-
Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets.
This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely.
I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches.
I knew something was up once the nws map's came out and they didn't match up. 24-36"? Jesus I can't believe they had that still.
-
The Ukie is almost more of a CCB deal. Not all bandy like the american models
It's nothing like the other models. Toss.
-
Does this not feel real to anyone? I'm sort of in disbelief of this whole thing about to hit honestly. Hasn't sunk in. Maybe the euro coming in big tonight would do it.
-
Nobody wanted to post the UKMET............
It doesn't look to have a great handle. Big dumpage SE MA and S Shore but no mid level love? Doesn't make sense to me given other modeling.
-
QPF queens getting the shaft in a different way than normal tonight. Mid levels were screaming east, east, east... Funny how it's responded in the QPF time as we head closer to the storm. Upton must have been spending too much time rip and reading qpf.
-
That seals it.
30" for you.
Pete Bouchard and Mike Wankum running a station would be fun.
-
I've been in the 24" spot in every map except Wankum's that I've seen tonight.
I wonder if he's going to post a NAVGEM output for us at 0z on twitter
-
Channel 4 Holy Balls
-
Yeah Jay that's the channel 7. Harvey had BOS in 24+ and a lot of 18-24.
Nah that FOX25
-
*****FOX25 Not WCVB/Harvey*****
-
Wankum on wind watch
Harv used the RGEM/NAM/RPM.
ASOUT
-
Mid levels are WAY better than 24 hours ago. GFS and NAM really don't even get the dryslot into eastern mass
-
As cweat said it has the similar track to rgem and nam at 0z so we'll wait on the euro. Not about track but moreso how it approaches SNE
-
but do you remember 2013????RGEM is a very viable model
Wagons east.
ASOUT
-
lol...the deadly NAM/RPM combo.
Add the RGEM into the list east of Euro, also GFS.
But hey...
-
That shows 30-36 here but I'm not getting that apparently
You said 36-48" in you're last post. Which you aren't getting- still. Get your facts straight and stop taking everything personally.
30-36" somewhere? Maybe. But if favors ORH county.
-
Looking at that RPM, can anyone guess where the ML forcing is when the storm stalls/slows down before heading east? lol.
-
God I hope it doesn't play out like that lol
20-24" tickling your fanny? I would wrap that up in a heartbeat. I'd also take 16-20" too.
-
Looks exactly like the NAM... HMMMMMMMMMM
-
yea exactly why I said the Euro may bump east a bit but c'mon man
The Euro is probably sore from consistent dry humping. For good reason
-
Hires nam is 20+ all of eastern mass/RI east of ORH... Spot 30's in the corridor we all mentioned south of BOS to Canal just off the coast.
-
don't you remember 2013?
Yes Bae
-
It's not about the NAM, its the fact every model other than the euro has gone east since 12z euro ran.
-
I'll take 36-48 inches based on the nam. Let's go....
You don't get anything close to that
Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler
in New England
Posted
The cape might be a crazy spot for this one...