TalcottWx

Well, it's tricky to explain effectively. Essentially we use ensembles because we don't understand the uncertainty of our chaotic atmosphere. Taking into account this uncertainty, the model runs several times with slightly perturbed conditions in order to create the individual members in order to best account for all possibilities. That's how we get the ensemble mean. The ensemble control forecast is the ensemble member run from the unperturbed, coarse-resolution initial conditions. Essentially the control run is useless in conclusion

Next metfan will be posting individual member runs of the ensemble. It'll be like AccuWeather in 2007 here

Really? Posting the control of the ensembles? Good lord

Yes - agree with that. Makes a ton of sense. Our average Temps will rise. But a 1040 hp nosing in from our north will always drag cold air down in front of an approaching noreastern. Temp increases won't change our patterns. But they may intensify the boundaries. I'm no scientific genius but that's the way I look at it anyway. Can't ignore the effect increased Temps would have on ocean sst though. Coastal locations may suffer a bit more and see a decreased seasonal window for snow imo..

The Geography of our location should prevent snow averages from changing much and in my opinion global warming could only intensify and increase snow totals...

I get the feeling the minute radar flips to light snow

Oh certainly, I just looked at the calendar and realized we're a week away. God help us

Thats a sexy look

I only care if it shows snow for metfan in NYC to be honest

You have to be bullish looking at these ensemble runs. I could care less about the individual op runs at this stage. Credit to guys like Ray etc who really called their shot with this pattern. Truly impressive.

Do these NYC weenies have a return address?

Miller B's are probably my favorite type of storm. One thing I miss, that we haven't had much of lately, clippers... I love the fact the snow sticks right away a lot of the time due to cold air

Which of your locations is snowier?

OT... But just a reminder... If you haven't joined the subforum Facebook group and are interested... Here you go.. It's just a back up if the forum ever undergoes maintenance or the website has issues during events https://www.facebook.com/groups/Amwxsne/?ref=share

Defunding over everything

I'd be OK with cutters, better than slowly bleeding out like yesterday

Phin's location is a great addition to the board. We all know it snows a ton there, but it's an opportunity to learn more about that area. I don't know as much as I would like.

Best us by an inch

How much did you get

Have to hammer meteorology not modelogy into my head the rest of this winter.

Lucky duck...

Probably in bed, it's raining

Wow, I'm quite jealous

You'll get your fair share of torches in a normal winter even there. What town again?

Trace here