TalcottWx

Rather be a massive weenie than a micro weenie

If the eps holds I'm going to be really confident

Can someone post the euro control run please

I'm riding the eps into the grave. Can't ignore how consistent its been. I'll be really confident if it holds all day.

No one here gives a sh*t about NYC hopefully they get the message

Bertha don't you come around here anymore

Lack of posts in here tonight, let's step it up weenies

It's one thing to be comfortable it's another to be confident.... I get what you're saying

The dead and springsteen are my favorites. One bad to drink by and one band to smoke by

I'm 29 but when I hang out with my best friends and really throw the booze back it's our band of choice. Brown eyed woman, Bertha, Tennessee Jed, sugaree.... There are just so many God damn jams I don't know where to begin and end

God, I love the dead.

LMAO

At this point not worth mentioning anything far over a foot yet. I want to see more consensus before we throw out over a foot with the progressive nature of m the storm. But I entirely agree we could be over a foot. Let's get more big time runs first.

Unless it slowed down a ton... Amounts would be very isolated over a foot in that scenario. I'm mobile so I can't look, but don't start believing in this bomb qpf runs with 30" of snow

Haha- I wouldn't mind kicking it out of the thread, but I meant also out of SNE. I have an irrational fear it will effect the larger storm.

Let's boot the Monday event out of here.

Who is Judah lol

It isn't

When has it been established the eps tends to be amped

I hope we see a few nw bumps soon

Alternate reality

Kev doesn't really look at the models

"As you learned earlier, meteorologists compensate by implementing a technique called ensemble forecasting, which gauges the sensitivity of a computer model's prediction to the way it's initialized. Specifically, meteorologists make minor changes to the initialization of a lower-resolution version of a specified operational model called the control member. For example, the control member in the GEFS has lower resolution than the operational GFS model. At any rate, the control member is run using this slightly different initial state. Then meteorologists tweak the initialization of the control member yet another time, in a slightly different way, and run the control member again using this new initial state. This process of "tweaking" the initial conditions of the control member is repeated a number of times (for some models, several dozen times), yielding a set of ensemble members. If all or most of the ensemble members come up with basically the same numerical prediction for a specific forecast day, meteorologists have a relatively high degree of confidence in that day's forecast. If, however, the tweaked model runs predict several noticeably different scenarios for the day in question, then forecasters have a fairly low degree of confidence in the numerical prediction." (Source)

Well, it's tricky to explain effectively. Essentially we use ensembles because we don't understand the uncertainty of our chaotic atmosphere. Taking into account this uncertainty, the model runs several times with slightly perturbed conditions in order to create the individual members in order to best account for all possibilities. That's how we get the ensemble mean. The ensemble control forecast is the ensemble member run from the unperturbed, coarse-resolution initial conditions. Essentially the control run is useless in conclusion

Next metfan will be posting individual member runs of the ensemble. It'll be like AccuWeather in 2007 here