notvirga!

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? Lol

Its still alot of effort...and it dosent pay anything lol. And its super time consuming. But i do make the effort lol

Ji I’m sure you noticed but not only does your Facebook weather page have lots of followers but it also has at least 1 spinoff Facebook group called “fans of jays wintery mix”. lol. 

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do watches go to ice storm warnings or winter storm warnings?  What determines that?  I can’t remember an ice storm warning here.   

They are WSW around here. 1/4 inch of ice equals WSW

Looking like temps will bust low today. Still freezing here. Was supposed to be 35-36 now.  

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I will send cash money to the first mod that band the next person who asks if we can start a thread.

I don’t care if March ‘93 is coming. Don’t start a thread outside of 36 hours.

Historically we’ve stated most threads 2-3 days before an event. I get that models have not been able to pinpoint exact locations of heaviest precip but when you have 2 events in 4 days it makes threads easier to read.

After 12z runs probably should start a separate thread for possible Saturday event 

Looks like around 5-6 inches here in Owings Mills. 

Eyeballing an 1” to 1.5” on deck now. Just snow so far here in Owings Mills

Kevin Harlan’s call of the fan on the field 

iPhone weather app now has 30-60 percent chance of snow 7 of the next 8 days. Don’t remember when I’ve seen that before. 

Heavy wet snow in Owings mills. About a 1/2 inch in the past 30 minutes. Total looks to be a little over an inch now 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s why I didn’t post on Wintery Mix after the 18z train wreck. I had a feeling 0z might reverse course and didn’t want to ping pong. 

Right or wrong I like that LWX does the same thing by not drastically changing their forecast every 6-12 hours. 

Hard to believe we a little more than 12 hours from first flakes and there’s not a great consensus 

Nws updated point click now 1-3 and 2-4 early Sunday am to through 1 pm (total 3-7 inches) and they knocked back the high temp to only 37 degrees now. For Owings mills /Reisterstown area 

thought this was interesting 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/04/meteorologists-milwaukee-broadcast-pandemic/

Quite a bit of ice from early Monday. This is over at soldier’s delight west of Owings Mills. Anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 an inch on tree limbs. Nice winter event overall here with around 6 inches of snowfall and below freezing temps and snow for parts of three days.

 I bet catoctins are going to be 12-18 inches by the time this is all over

Owings mills has changed from freezing rain to what I would call “snow mist”. Basically drizzle but it’s actually tiny flakes. 

It’ll be nice having snow falling all day with temps below freezing. Planning to take a walk in the snow this afternoon. Not much accumulation here but a heavy coating—maybe 3/10 of an inch. Hoping the NAMs are wrong and the globals are right for this area.

Absolutely worlds apart are the uk and the Gem. Hopefully consensus tomorrow but I’m not even sure about that. 

From @jacksillin on Twitter.

“So what "squishes" the low in the ECMWF's depiction?

A shortwave trough moving through New England Sunday PM.

The northerly flow behind this feature suppresses the burgeoning storm on Monday, letting it slip SE on Tuesday.

The GEM has this feature *much* weaker and farther NE.”

6 minutes ago, winterymix said:

The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO.

Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate  model. 

Those asking Ji updated his facebook to say he had a close friend pass away. He may not be around too much the next few days. 

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Never got above 11 degrees I don't think here . Wicked cold storm 

Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too. 

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

For the most part all of the mid Atlantic HECS have been well modeled inside 5-7 days since the early 90s. (I’m including March 93). Jan 00 was MECS and a colossal failure in modeling. 

If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models to follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much.