WeatherGeek2025

let's be realistic here for once the that i am wants to believe that but when models show that warm nose aloft, forget we will change to sleet from yorktown and south! Look for a trend that could push that warm nose down to let's say staten island or whatever. and boom we will all be happy. It could happen you want an earlier south transfer and you want that coastal to crank, that thing is a pos right now 1004 millibar low very weak at this time as it is being depicted. You want some type of 996 or lower for a chance to actually cool down those columns really quick and not have that warm nose creep north any further!

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

GFS is all snow, and if we could push the other guidance 30-40 miles south we're good to go!

thank you

Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same?

that's a great thing Euro AI is a good model probably the best i stand by it but maybe we're just going to get some sleet. But a 30 mile shift south could change the outcome to all snow. still another 72 hours until the first flakes come in. Plenty of time for that southern 30-40 mile shift!

right now as it stands every model shows 6-12 inches of snow followed probably by a bunch of sleet. The GFS is the only model that shows pure snow for the city and west if you use kuchera probably getting around 12-18 inches according to GFS. Hopefully the GFS is right. Even if the other models that are showing that warm nose aloft it's fine we're still getting a good amount of snow followed by heavy sleet which will have staying power for our snow cover for weeks!

yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind

i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind

good morning i see stuff trended north this morning. still plenty of time for this to come a little south and hit us like the GFS! Id like to say this, i'd rather have GfS than Euro at this range!

it's ok brother thank you

kinda like my snowmap too

read more and post less. i said the GFS was going to fold to euro ai and it did. honestly you post nothing of value besides try to dig knowledgeable posters. you should banter your jokes

gfs and icon almost identical cmc out to lunch

almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong!

i tried the kuchera, theres some lolis of 24 plus in the NYC burbs lol

Icon keeps snowing all day monday into early tuesday as the new Low develops off the coast of Jersey and throws some moisture our way! great run

looks to be mostly snow for the city

icon sucks but yes it's about 30 miles south and cooler right where we want it i guess

i guess the only way to find out is do hourly measurements

0z nam vs 18z europe gfs and euro ai same timeframe

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one. By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

Don, you're the statistics man, do you happen to know ? what type of storms were they and what type of airmass (temps) we had during the storms?

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!