wthrmn654

High of 58, down to 52 already

Nws has 1-4 for my zone.

But in other news it's 58 and I'm on the east end where this time of year the water doesn't allow much warmth. That's a surprise.

This translates to a 1-4 inches kinda forecast. Though even saying a coating to 3 wouldn't be bad either.

Well, it does and it doesn't. Grassy surfaces and metal surfaces always stick first. Unless temps dropping well at least 27°F or more say at least hour before precip starts , better chances that things will stick quicker. But closer to 32 and it's more dicey. Daytime snow unless moderate/ heavy and with temps also beow 30 this time of year do better then moderate snow 31 or 32, paved surfaces especially.

12k nam gives nothing to li essentially but nyc west does lol

3km output is much more uniform

Whacky output with 12k so far.

Nam looks good so far. Amounts didn't go down from first glance

Are the hurricane hunters lost right now lmfao What kinda flight pattern is this?

Gfs running late, one message says run taking to long....

Still some uncertainty re snow chances from late Sat night into Sunday as low pressure passes well to the SE and the area falls underneath or very close to upper jet and mid level frontogenetic forcing. ECMWF, after trending farther south for a couple of cycles, has come back a little NW, while other global models are farther south/east. Forecast splits the difference, with chance snow for the entire area during this time frame. Liquid equivalent QPF forecast by the operational models is mostly less than 1/10 inch throughout per GFS/Canadian, and about 1/10 inch from NYC east per ECMWF and less NW. Meanwhile, ensemble means suggest a little more QPF, with about 1/10 inch from NYC north/west and 1-2 tenths for Long Island. SLR should be fairly high though in the cold air mass, running between 12-15:1, so a 1-2 inch snowfall still seems quite possible, with the higher amts to the east and south of NYC, possibly also in the higher elevations inland.

00z 12z (so far)