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wthrmn654

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Everything posted by wthrmn654

  1. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- At or below freezing temperatures have worked down into the NYC metro and as far east as interior SW CT. Due to the shallow nature of the cold air, it has struggled to get across the hills of western CT. The Hudson River Valley has made it easier for a more southward progression initially. As the colder air gradually deepens, it will continue to expand south and east across CT and LI. Winter weather advisories remain in effect until 7 pm for all but SE CT and eastern LI, where it is in effect until 10 pm. Far eastern areas will likely not see freezing rain until around 00Z (give or take an hour). An additional tenth to quarter inch liquid equivalent is possible before the event comes to an end for far eastern areas late this evening. This will result in up to an additional tenth of an inch of ice across interior sections of CT, with a light glaze down at the coast. Upper portions of the Lower Hudson Valley will likely go over to all sleet with little additional ice accretion. Some areas have seen close to half an inch, with some reports even higher up above 500ft. High pressure over the Midwest will then build slowly east overnight, while the departing frontal system works across the western Atlantic. Much of the night will remain overcast with strong cold advection on N-NW winds at 10 to 15 mph. Lows by daybreak will range form the lower to mid teens well inland, to the lower 20s at the coast. This is a few degrees below normal.
  2. Pws station in Montauk says 34. Cold air funneling down ct river now as well suddenly the cold air is marching steadily
  3. Changed Discussion -- Shallow cold air having an extremely difficult time working east of the Lower Hudson Valley due to the hills into western CT. In fact, the colder air is having an easier time moving south into the NYC metro where temperatures will fall at or below freezing over the new few hours along with continued light precipitation. As the colder air gradually deepens it will also expand south and east across CT and LI. Eastern LI may not get below freezing until early this evening. Freezing isotherm approximately located from TEB to HPN to near or just north of DXR (least progress here). A few mesonet sites farther south are around freezing, specifically into the Bronx. Ice accums up to another tenth across northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW CT possible with a light glaze along the coast. Much of Orange and Putnam counties are likely sleet or mixed with freezing rain at this time with a transition to all sleet forecast as the afternoon progresses.
  4. 60 mins ago it was 53. Now it's 41.0 Love these temp dumps. Don't see them all that often
  5. Side note, I really miss the hourly temp change on meteobridge. I'm pretty sure the older version had it, but they did away with it along with some other cool things.
  6. Weather underground pws station data is not updating on the history section. Now that's a pain when trying to track the cold.
  7. 32 in Yonkers looking at pws map places south east towards city are between 33-35 it's not terribly far off.
  8. Based on 731 Upton update, I'm thinking that the nam is leading the way with regards to the front clearing long Island earlier versus the hrrr this afternoon. Ahead of schedule essentially. However, for locations behind the cold front across the interior, such as Northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, there will be more northerly flow developing at the surface up through around 3 kft above the surface. This will make for a rapid cooling trend for temperatures but with the SW flow aloft above 3kft (up to about 10-15kft) still bringing around 3 to 7 degree C temperatures, the set up will lead to freezing rain. In some cases where the low level temperature has cooled more and there is a greater depth low level sub-freezing layer, sleet will form. Much of the forecast will depend on the timing of the cold front because 1-2 hours after the cold front passage, temperatures are forecast to abruptly drop by at least several degrees. NAM is showing earlier frontal passage by late morning exiting southeast of Long Island while the HRRR is later by early afternoon exiting southeast of Long Island. The forecast is in between the two aforementioned model solutions. Freezing rain is expected be ongoing this morning across the Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast NJ and Southwest CT. Rain will be the precipitation type elsewhere. The transition of the thermal profile after the cold front is a decrease in the temperature by around 10 to 15 degrees within the first 1 to 1.5 kft above the surface 1 to 2 hours after the cold frontal passage. Then a further decrease in the surface temperature is forecast and increase in depth of the sub- freezing layer up to near 3 to 4 kft above the surface over the rest of the day. This set up here gives freezing rain eventually to all locations.
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