wthrmn654

Well I'm scratching my head again tonight. Weather Channel on TV, all day has said 3-5 inches for my area on the ticker on bottom screen for several nearby Locations. Can't really figure that one out at all...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some weak shortwave energy is traversing across the region this afternoon within a nearly zonal flow aloft. A few snow flurries and ice pellets have been reported under some light returns, but expect the activity has diminished as the energy departs. The low level atmosphere is very dry still as high pressure ridges down from southeast Canada. Attention then turns to a strong vortmax approaching from the Great Lakes region overnight. In response to this system, low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley tonight with a weaker secondary wave possible forming near or just south of Long Island late tonight into Friday morning. The primary low will become absorbed into the secondary low by Friday afternoon as the system departs off the New England coast. The global models and high resolution models have continued to come into better agreement on both the large scale evolution and the mesoscale. This has led to increased forecast confidence over the last 12 to 24 hours. No changes were made to the coverage of the winter weather advisories, but have adjusted the end time to 10 am Friday for NYC metro and NW Long Island and 3 pm Friday for southern Connecticut. Precipitation develops from southwest to northeast across the region late this evening into the early morning hours. Strong warm advection in the middle levels may be briefly offset by wet bulb cooling and precipitation dynamics. This will yield a quick burst of snow even at the coast. However, the snow will be short-lived and may quickly mix with or change completely to sleet shortly after precip onset due to warm air aloft. An increasing easterly flow will then help boost surface temperatures above freezing around day break. This will effectively bring a change to plain rain across Long Island and southern portions of the NYC metro. There could be a brief period of freezing rain, specificually for the NYC metro and NW Long Island around day break which could bring a light glaze of ice. For this reason, have left the Winter Weather Advisory in place here especially due to the timing around the morning commute. Away from the immediate coast, there will likely be a few more hours of snow, possibly moderate to locally heavy at times. Interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior SW CT will lie just on the colder side of the thermal gradient initally, which briefly enhances frontogenesis. Snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour are possible here early Friday morning through around day break. The middle level low track of this system is not favorable for precipitation to remain all snow across the interior. The track of the low well to the north and west of the area will allow the warm advection aloft to bring temperatures between 850 mb and 700 mb above freezing. This will change the snow to sleet initially as the low level cold air looks dense enough. However, easterly flow will warm the low levels bringing a change to freezing rain and potentially rain before ending around midday. Locations along the CT coast and southern Lower Hudson Valley will see a bit more snow/sleet than closer to NYC metro and Long Island, but the warming both aloft and at the surface will bring a transition to freezing rain and then plain rain shortly after day break. By mid morning, saturation aloft diminishes and the precip intensity likely drops off. Most locations should see liquid precip with the highest chance of freezing rain across the interior. Total snow/sleet accumulations have been adjusted downward given the continued warming trend. These amounts may need to be adjusted downard further, especially if the transition to sleet is quicker. 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet is expected across the interior, highest along and north of I-84, dropping to less than an inch for much of NYC and Long Island. Total ice acretion amounts remain similar overall with a glaze to a tenth across the NYC metro, SW CT, NW LI, to one to two tenths further inland. The models have trended faster with the end of the precip and have adjusted the forecast accordingly with mostly dry conditions in the afternoon except for southeast CT. No precip is expected during the evening commute. Highs should reach the middle and upper 30s, to around 40 at the coast. Winds are not a concern with the system, but could gust to around 20-25 mph near the coast in the morning. Winds will pick up behind the system late Friday, gusting 25-30 mph by evening. No precip is expected for the Friday evening commute.

So, looking at the 3km temps at surface long Island is borderline on the freezing mark (+/-) till about 13 or 14z. Seems the surface wants to try and hold onto colder temps as long as it can. It gets more life 34-35 after that for a bit. But still. Hmm

Yes/ no. It's a federal research facility that researches things like hoof and mouth disease and things of that sort. It's getting shut down. New level 4 facility that can research animal to human viruses is being built/ finished in Kansas.

And for those that we talking about um drawing a linefrom like nyc east, yesterday with parts of North fork being so far north, select Suffolk, look at the %chances for possibly seeing snow accumulation by inch category. Orient and plum Island have the highest % out of other locations in Suffolk. Good example of what snowgoose was saying yesterday. And no I'm not saying I'm getting that, simply pointing that out.

Just noticed now it maybe fairly new, but looks like In the winter section on nws Upton, I'm the probabilities area, near bottom where you select the county, they have changed/ updated locations. Orient is now included. Wonder if there are other additions/ removals

True but surface levels won't warm as fast I'd think.

I don't think anyone is even saying that or accusing anyone of suggesting that.

Idk about other areas but temps are several degrees lower then forecast out here on the east end.

Yeah that's why temps likely are mid to possibly upper 30s maximum before dropping.

Temps drop/ crash by 18z roughly speaking last I remember seeing with yesterday's stuff.

Oh! I know what was throwing me off, that omega thing on the left showing the bottom at 1000 lol

I always forget but bottom is surface level correct? Lol

The overall synoptic evolution among the global models remains in good agreement with a primary low pressure center to our NW transferring energy to an offshore low to our south before the center of the entire system passes through. There are however still some differences within the mesoscale, particularly with timing, speed and magnitude of a warm nose aloft. Trend from the past few runs, even with the GFS, has been warmer in this regard. There are also differences with the handling of the primary low to our north and west as well as secondary low pressure near or just south of Long Island, but somewhat better agreement in this regard versus 24 hours ago. Precipitation develops across the region from southwest to northeast late this evening. Strong warm advection ahead of the system is going to pump warm and moist air up and over the colder and drier air that will be in place from high pressure to the north. How quickly a warm nose develops between about 850 mb and 700 mb will ultimately determine precipitation types and amounts across the region. The GFS, ECMWF and RGEM are colder than the NAM overall. The NAM however in the past has done a good job at picking up on warm noses as well as the speed and intensity of them. The latest forecast includes a lean toward the NAM given the warming trend seen, but still averaged with the colder guidance. Precip begins as all snow, starting late evening/toward midnight across NE NJ and spreading north and east. A transition to a wintry mix for coastal areas after midnight, then for the interior after daybreak Friday. Although the max temp in the warm nose is progged to eventually be warm enough to preclude anything but rain or freezing rain, the cold nose beneath it is marginally cold enough for a refreezing to sleet, but more importantly, deeper than the typical shallow layer of cold air we more typically see. Therefore have leaned more toward sleet or a sleet/rain or sleet/freezing rain in these instances where normally sleet wouldn`t likely be in the mix. Also, good agreement among the models that late Friday morning into much of the afternoon will feature a lack of sufficient ice nucleation for snow growth, so no snow anticipated in the afternoon - just rain, freezing rain and possibly some sleet. Most of all precip should fall before early afternoon for most of the area. There was not enough confidence to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning anywhere given the warming trend, and this was collaborated with the surrounding offices. And with precip starting tonight, felt that advisories should be posted where needed. Some areas that are not expected to reach advisory criteria based on snow/sleet accumulations have been added to the advisory based on combined snow/sleet totals and ice accretion.

Along with frozen ground as going into that one ground was warm/ thawed. Versus this one having a coolder/ possibly frozen surface

0.14 ice near the airports looks like. 30 west of NY in parts of jersey.

Lol the trusty icon is south and fairly icy going into nyc region.

Also At this point I think nearly every model meso and general does show a freezing rain zone roughly near NYC zone( roughly speaking)

The only hiccup to this forecast will be also how much the ground can freeze solidly before this all happens... different situation this time versus the last time we had freezing rain few storms ago.

The new high res gfs thing got cooler 00z

Been a fairly strong ish signal today of freezing rain somewhere near long Island/ NYC zone it would seem, of which likely most of that won't materialize. None the less is also something to keep an eye on

Expect to be woken up by pounding sleet of it occurs lol

I should say the colder/ snowier models lol

Does that change your thinking at the snower models being more right to an extent?