migratingwx

Lately, the only place that seems to get over 6" without any mixing is ORF.

This is why you can't get too excited until you're about 48 hours out, which isn't until Thursday. Rooting for you all even though I no longer live there.

So much can still change when you're four days out, but there are warning signs that this may not be an all snow event. Not saying anything people don't already know, but something to keep in mind, especially if you are south of CHO to an EZF line and certainly if you are on southside Hampton Roads, those areas are typically the most vulnerable to mixing during these events.

It’s probably a good idea to expect 4 to 8 inches of snow before any mixing occurs. The mixing signal we observe on the Euro model is hard to overlook, and in the past, warmer air has typically moved in quickly. The interesting question is whether RIC will receive 6.0 inches of snow, as that hasn’t happened since December 2018, even though ORF has experienced two or three such events since then.

Well, this is an interesting development.

I figured it out, the PayPal option worked, but the credit card function never fully processed. The authorization was pending on my account, but never posted.

O'Hare has reached -2°F and Midway -1°F so far.

AKQ just issued an advisory.

The GFS was even more bullish for tomorrow morning with 2-3" from Richmond to Norfolk.

00z NAM followed suit and was pretty aggressive, I'd say a dusting to an inch is certainly possible many areas tomorrow morning. Maybe a few lucky spots exceed an inch?

On the HRRR, the temperature at RIC starts at 36°F when the precipitation arrives, then drops to 30°F before it ends. There is about a 1-2 hour window to accumulate before tapering off. I believe the GFS was the first model to highlight the idea of a farther southward expansion of the precip along and east of I-95 in Virginia and over towards Hampton Roads.

A southward shift on the 18z Euro vs 12z below.

Euro has shifted north from earlier runs for the Friday and Saturday systems. 12z vs 6z bottom 2 maps below

12z GFS still favoring a southern track, with the heaviest snows staying south of Chicago.