bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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nothing more like the Mid-Atlantic forum than arguing about the government and their shitty weather models in a boxing day ice to rain thread on christmas eve lol
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Jaws at the end of the 0z Euro. This doesn't tell me much other than the fact that January will be fun to track even in the first half, and BAM will likely be right about a major winter storm happening around their timeframe of Jan 4-8.
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That cold shot around New Year's Day has trended quite cold from the torch it was maybe four days ago. EPS averages 10-15F below average during this time frame for much of the East Coast.
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That cold shot around New Year's Day has trended quite cold from the torch it was maybe four days ago. EPS averages 10-15F below average during this time frame for much of the East Coast.
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0z GFS decent shift north.
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I lost all my respect for the Euro every since last February.
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GFS is actually pretty cold at onset. Even in the metros it starts at 31, then drops to 29 before rising. Sleet should stick pretty well before the changeover verbatim.
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18z GFS holds! Best news of the last 3 minutes.
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four threads in December? I’m pretty content with giving it at least a B.
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we can’t do snow or shut the blinds anymore so we turn into sleet/ice lol
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sleet nuke verbatim—if i had to measure an additional 2" of technically snow then i guess i would take this
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nice call
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Eric Weeb is more volatile than the 384hr GFS lol
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talk to me dirty
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18z Euro noticeably better
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The GFS has quite a climactic ending.
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Snowy Christmas to you too!
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It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO.
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It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC.
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Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event.
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Just like 12z was, it's still a good run.
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It looks like 18z GFS won't be what we want.
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I think you put it very eloquently in one of your past posts—it's called meteorology, not modelogy. Great call there.
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Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.
