IrishRob17

So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

You summed up my feelings rather well. As I pointed out above I still have a bit of a bitter taste in my mouth from last winter too. To miss out on so many storms and then have the headaches of no water, heat, or electric for close to four days with the one big storm we got sucked. Not that I expect another storm like that but I think that I'll still feeling funny until I actually measure a decent powdery snowfall IMBY.

Another thing that I didn't like about the Snowicane was that the snow didn't last very long because it was late in the season and warm after the storm. I love a nice snowpack, a deep snowpack would be a bonus, but I can't be picky. I just love when we have a snowcover for weeks on end, which doesn't happen often I realize. I was spoiled during the winter of 93-94. We had a snow pack from mid-late December all the way through March. I measured a 16-18" snowpack on St. Patrick's Day 1994. That was awesome but I don't know when I may see it again in Orange County. We had a great snowpack going in 95-96 too, about 3 feet before the rain storm came throguh in January and wiped it all out. In 95-96 we had more snowfall but 93-94 was a better winter overall for me because the snowpack stayed solid until spring.

"Suffering from convective feedback"

"Euro is king"

"6Z and 18Z runs are garbage because XYZ aren’t included"

"The NOGAPS, KMA, RGEM and JMA are in agreement"

"Lee Goldberg's facebook page says"

The modeling this week has been awful, we were spoiled last year when most storms were pretty much locked in early and often had the correct general idea. Its going to be a tuff winter.

On the plus side for the model threads in the NYC/Philly section, Tombo, Radders and Earthlight and the many Mets posting real time model info and analysis has made them enjoyable and informative

This is a total selfish post but many of those storms locked in to our south and left us out. Then of course we had the Snowicane which was incredible but that storm was also an incredible pain in the ass for me personally and not all that enjoyable from about 11pm that Thursday night on thru that weekend. It's would be nice to get a decent dumping of powder but I guess we're all looking for that.

LOL! Yeah, crazy shifts all week. I do find some entertainment value whe nreading the various model threads with all the contradictions. More people should remember that it's better to be quiet and thought of as a fool rather than open your mouth and remove all doubt. You guys all know what I'm talking about because it's been going on for years.

"It's more amped"

"It's flat"

"It's further east"

"It's a tad west"

"not as juicy"

"This baby is loaded with moisture"

'It's a thread the needle situation"

"game over"

"match set point"

"It's not over yet"

"We'll see the change at 12z"

"This is ouitside the accurate zone of the model"

"This is when the model nails systems"

You can find all of this posted all within about 10 minutes of each other during any of the model run threads>

You might get a call from the TH- Record tonite.

Those days are done for me but thanks for remembering

Definitely looking much better for our area, but there is a sharp gradient (as you would expect) from Northwest to Southeast... I would say the HV area is running between 1-1.75 running from NW to SE (more SE) (haven't looked that closely) but that is conservative. I think most of us in this thread in the lower/mid hudson valley, are in the 1.5 range.

I will try and post in both forums in future runs, now that we are heading into crunch time!

Thanks. I just got a look at Tombo's map so I have a better idea now. I'm dreading another storm like 12/19/09 when I got 1 whole inch but that doesn't look like it's in the cards as of now anyway

Hey Raddars! I see you were just giving a breakdown on the Euro in the NYC forum. Things obviously have improved in the past 24 hours or so, how's it looking up our way? Sounds like we get in on at least some of the fun now?

I probably measured too late but about 1.25 in Kingston

Hey, glad to see that you made it over here!

Looks like about .50" here, a nice little surprise.

Oh the snow guns ate firing away again tonight. I just took a peak outside and see steady light snow and working on a coating now. Nice.

Just a dusting IMBY but the wind probably blew most of the snow away.

Just a dusting IMBY but the wind probably blew most

I got some freezing rain, a chunk of ice was screwing up my rain gauge this morning.

There was no doubt when the warm front came through, the temp jumped about 12 degrees, up to 55 now!

I was down to 25 at 11pm, I assume that they was a little icing overnight but I'm at 34 now which is fine by me, I would rather not deal with freezing rain.

Didn't make a coating over here but did manage a dusting. This combined with the falling snow made for a nice evening walking and looking at Christmas lights here in the park.

Where I am, the hills are just to the west of me. The downslope levels out a bit on my property and then continues to lose elevation to the east of me. So I'm not truly in the hills valley, just a somewhat level point on its way down. The hills do play havoc with the winds, sometimes shelter me from westerly winds and other times change their direction so a westerly or NW winds becomes from the east or NE or SE.

While I don't know much about them I find micro climates very interesting so I'm always looking for more information on them.

Light snow showers/flurries in and around Goshen in the past hour.

GREAT NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm here!

What happened to the old board?

GO ARMY! Sadly I'm giving up my season tickets but that's on the other board.

Low of 10 here.

14.1 here

Down to 19 right now, which I believe is my lowest thus far this season.

Check that, I guess I needed more coffee this morning, I see that my low was 17 or 16.8 for those who go to the tenth.

Rob elaborate more when you have the time, might be a good discussion. Thae picture kinda describes my locate, I'm on the east side of some hills.

Oh, I don't know if I'm smart enough to explain it much more but I've wondered if I fall in the warmer porion of that image too.

480ft

Rad cooling would have more to do with atmospheric conditions (cloud cover, wind, decoupling) then a small variation in your station location I would think. For example last night by me was cloudless and no wind perfect setup while some guys in Jersey had clouds and some snowflakes last night.

True I guess I misspoke a bit, I was thinking more in terms of cold air drainage, forested areas, that sort of thing. This isn't the best image but I don't have much time at the moment.

15F imby this morning.

What's your elevation there?

Untill tonite.

http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text

We'll see if I get that low but it should be the lowest of the season for sure. For whatever reason raditonal cooling is hit or miss IMBY. It seems like I tend to stay a bit warmer but there have been a few instances when I radiated very well and wound up colder. I haven't been able to figure out the reasoning but I sometimes wonder if my weather station location is a factor as it sits on a little hill in the yard with a 4-6 foot drop off on three sides. Anyone else think that this could be a factor?

Down to 19 right now, which I believe is my lowest thus far this season.

The Catskills high peaks (meaning 3500'+) begin in central/western Ulster County...slightly below the latitude of Kingston for reference. They taper down a lot below Peekamoose and that southwest corner of Ulster County (IE where 52 crosses) is just hilly. Bigger mountains ...draw a line from New Paltz (in the HV) to Liberty and it's all north of that line.

Of course you also have the Shawangunk Ridge which stands in the way....

I assumned when you menyioned the lower Hudson Valley you meant south of Orange/Dutchess counties. I would considered my end of the Hudson Valley the lower end of the Mid-Hudson if that makes any sense.

Glad to see that you found us!

Moderate Snow... Coating on all surfaces

I had the lightest of dustings on my car at home but as I drove into Middletown early this morning there was a decent coating with a few fender benders.