IrishRob17

Still getting intermittent drizzle/light rain randomly, another .01" in the last hour. Not much but it don't help with trying to dry things out. 

7.43" for this event, 7.56" for the month. Picked up another .01 in the last hour, maybe today it actually stops, it should. 

Just hit 7.00" and still raining. 

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Thanks for the link. Current radar is validating the discussion in our area. Up to 4.48” since 8pm last night.

Up to 6.51” and raining at about .25” per hour rate now. 

Latest WPC discussion: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0629&yr=2026

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Portions of Orange County show what can happen with training convection in situations like these.

Orange County...
Otisville                    7.78 in   1010 AM 07/06   NYSM                 
Montgomery                   6.01 in   1005 AM 07/06   CWOP           

I'm up to 6.44" 

Up to 6.44" for the event.

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Still no power.

Rainfall total as of 7:00 a.m. a beneficial and manageable 1.36".  Thankfully the excessive totals did not pan out over a large area.  Isolated excessive amounts only.  @IrishRob17seems to have jack potted.  Threat of Flash Flooding much reduced for rest of today but still some locally heavier showers around.  Temperatures down but humidity is sky high.  Very soupy out there this morning.

My son over near Milford PA is at 6”. Hopefully that power gets back on soon!

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts.

Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”.

But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.

The models did a decent job showing it was going to dump somewhere and as you stated the exact the locations are always going to move around in these types of setup’s. I got under that band but other places in Orange County received much less. Everyone in the region getting 3-5+” was never likely and most of us knew that but not everyone reads the actual discussions, they just look at the pretty graphics on their phone app.

2 hours ago, steve392 said:

This system just kept hammering you guys up there! 

Up to 5.25” and still raining but the current rate is a much more manageable .26” per hour. 

4.76" since 7pm last night here near Campbell Hall.

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Just over 2” since 7pm, rainfall rate is down at the moment but this cell keeps back building with a new cell to the west moving this way. Flash Flood Warning issued until midnight. 

Spoke too soon on the rainfall rate, up over 2.5” now in the past two hours. 

Just over 2” since 7pm, rainfall rate is down at the moment but this cell keeps back building with a new cell to the west moving this way. Flash Flood Warning issued until midnight. 

Rainfall rate has been bouncing between 3-7" per hour, up to 1.25" and pouring. 

13 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Good to hear that you’re not in the bullseye. Some of the Mesoscale models are showing up to around 9” of QPF thru Tuesday in different areas it all depends on where these cells set up shop and just dump. 

Now that is split a bit I'm u see the bullseye of the southern cell, up to .73" over the last hour or so, streams running through the yard. 

8 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

It’s just to my north and west, hearing the thunder but no rain here yet.

FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
  rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following
  county, Orange.

* WHEN...Until 915 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
    flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor
    flooding in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of
    rain have fallen.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Middletown, Montgomery, Scotchtown, Mechanicstown, Maybrook,
    Circleville and Bullville.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

 

The worst of the cell is to my north, picked up .50" so far from it. 

Flood Advisory just issued here, the cell has been back building/hardly moving. 

WPC discussion on the heavy rain developing and the potential flooding:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0612&yr=2026

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Suprised all is quite here after last nights severe thunderstorms.  35,000 people in Dutchess had no power last night.  We have been on generator power since 3 am.  Trees down everywhere, hail, lightnight and 70 to 80 MPH winds ripped everything up that wasnt tied down. CoCoRaHS measured 1.60 inches of rain near me but i would say it was twice that amount.  I havent seen a storm like this in many years.

Thankfully I missed the worst of that crap, no FOMO from me. Had some brief gusty winds and .13” thru the tipper. Hopefully your power comes back sooner rather than later. 

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Kind of weird that portions of NE New Jersey and NYC are not included in the watch - doesn't mean though that there won't be any heavy rains wind and lightning..........which may give some folks a false sense of security when outdoors later

There could always be a further downstream watch issued later, gotta keep an eye on the discussions to see what the SPC is thinking.

12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

A watch for some of us to start out the day around here is likely: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1494.html

And here it is:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0459.html

A watch for some of us to start out the day around here is likely: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1494.html

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Those higher probabilities should be adjusted N/NNE based on guidance 

The Colorado State model shows this. 

6 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Yep, remember trying to get to my fiancé’s family in North Edison and there were downed trees everywhere.

So she said yes?! Congrats. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1477.html