IrishRob17

50 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Lake effect rain doesn't have a ratio of a billion to 1 to fluff it up. Plus it's still kind of fake because you drive for 5 minuites and there's no rain and sunny skies. 

Ah, you sound like you may suffer from FOMO 

Do the weenies that call it fake snow in winter call today’s lake effect fake rain? 

.45", 2.22" for the month. 

.45", might add another hundredth or two with the last light showers about to move through. 

18 minutes ago, doncat said:

Remember the old days Rob of installing weather equipment...no wireless yet...running wires, drilling holes in the house to get the wires to the inside unit. I've had an anemometer up on the roof for as long as I can remember... luckily it's a ranch home so not too high... don't think I can go up there anymore so hoping it continues to work well.

 

Once stations got wireless I got much more interested in getting my own station, plus where I was in life at the time. I do remember putting my old Weather Monitor II on two different roofs in the late 90's and early 00's, not the best move to have the entire station up there but live and learn. Its much easier all around now. I remember you giving me pointers on how to connect to my computer and then that got even easier with the Davis WeatherLink Live.

18 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Where is everyone getting there totals from?  I'd like to check out my area or at least close to my area's totals.

Same as Don, from my weather station, I've had one for 25+ years, on my third station now. I kept general weather notes going back longer that that but got more detailed with my observations 20 years ago. It seemed kinda pointless at times in the beginning, many will say its pointless now but I find it interesting to look back now that there is a decent chunk or information to look at. 

13 minutes ago, doncat said:

My precip here from 9/1/24 to present is 35.50"... Normal for that period is around 55.50" so a -20" departure .  Btw had 0.05" last night.

I'm at .21", the occasional shower still rotating through up here.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

50.84” of rain has been our long term average since 1971 at a place like NYC so it isn’t too much rain.  But short term hourly and daily heavy rainfall extremes have been increasing over this period especially since 2003. This has lead to flooding issues. It’s when we get closer to 60”or higher of rain on the year that issues with too much annual rainfall develop. From 1871 to 1970 NYC averaged 42.89” which worked out OK since the climate was so much cooler. Except for the 1960s which had the record low rainfall in the 30s and even 20s with the 500 year drought.

I can only go back to 2017 to look at trust worthy annual precipitation amounts since I didn't start melting down frozen precipitation to get accurate readings until the fall of 2016. Boy, I forgot how wet 2023 was, 66.85" that year for me but I digress. My annual average is 49.18", so right in the ball park of what you posted above. 

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025.

Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. 

We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly. 

 

 

My 9.48" this past May boosted me over 40" to 41.85" from 10/1/24-9/30/25. 

Meh, its all silly IMO. Its like one thinking that their blanket isn't long enough when it doesn't reach their chin, so they cut 6" off the bottom and sew it to the top to make it longer.

Started the day with about 60% leaf drop, closer to 80% now that the breeze has picked up. 70 and a muggy feeling 61 dew. 

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Thank you!

Traffic north of the Tappan Zee is always terrible, best to stay south of that line...

63 degrees currently and the looks to be a nice sunset setting up.  

52 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Thinking of doing the wintertime Cog Railway trip up to 4000 feet in late November or early December. Anyone taken it before? Thanks. 

Not The Cog, yet, but I took the van with the tracks on it in Feb of 2020, pretty damn cool if you like winter.  

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I put it here given the timeframe involved. If you feel it would be better in the October thread, please feel free to move it.

I did move it Don. There’s a ton of posts in there about old snowstorms, blah blah blah. Your post, albeit out there in timeframe, is much more relevant than most of the discussion in there currently. 

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

Good post, Don, hinting at what @wdraghas mentioned a couple times about the blocking at the end of the month. 

Only 36 this morning thanks to the clouds that are moving through. 

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Peaks on the 21st

COMET ALERT!

 

A brand-new celestial visitor is lighting up our skies — Comet Lemmon (C/2025 A6) is rapidly brightening and has now reached the threshold of naked-eye visibility!

Over the coming week, the comet will climb higher in the northwest sky after sunset, glowing brighter each night as it journeys closer to the Sun.

 

How to See It:

 

Escape city lights for a darker sky

Head outside shortly after sunset

Look below and to the left of the Big Dipper — that’s where this icy wanderer awaits!

If you have binoculars, you might catch its faint greenish glow and the delicate arc of its tail — a breathtaking reminder of the Solar System’s timeless motion.

 

 

Hey Liberty, is 14 individual replies in a row your record?

Dews officially dropping here once again. 66/53 at home.

38 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Local sites range from 2.1 to 2.7, less west and more east. The first few hours I sat here with some mist and drizzle while 2 miles away it was steady rain. If it was snow I would've been really frustrated.

I’ve lived that with snow scenario a number of times, I just tell myself all snow melts eventually, sooner rather than later these days. It’s also why I appreciate whatever snowfall I get. 

1.13"

23 minutes ago, Hitman said:

1.4" since midnight.  check.

excessive rainfall has been normalized to such a degree that "normal" rainfall is underwhelming. 

Violently agree

22 minutes ago, snywx said:

.52 here 

sharp cutoff within the county 

Yep, we’ve seen this before, up to .99 now.  Yesterday some were questioning if anything of note would happen north of 95, NW of 287 even though the models had whatever was going to fall coming in overnight. This is pretty much exactly what I’d been expecting IMBY but I know that is subjective and location based. 

.97 and slowly gaining, pretty much what I expected. 

.82 and still raining up here well north of 287