stormy

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

And everybody drink!

I am sipping on a Natural Ice right now. Whats your pleasure?

20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it is kind of humorous that lows in the mid-upper 30s are referred to as "cold!! bundle up in the morning!!" by local mets on TV (maybe Doug and Topper excepted) - in mid winter.

Next Wed Morning at +6  will be a little more in tune.

A WWA has been issued for western areas:   https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ025&warncounty=VAC015&firewxzone=VAZ025&local_place1=3 Miles WNW Dooms VA&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=38.1291&lon=-78.9004

12z 1-16, Euro gives the Central Valley .50" of new ice with a surface temp. of 24 degrees. Welcome to the skating rink!!  850 temps have dropped from +4 to - 9 in 6 hrs!     Temps. fall all day to 12 by 7 pm.

Oragraphic lift will create some very heavy downpours on the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Would expect some 4 - 6 inch totals.

The signal is clearly there on the GEFS. The op ECM is there, the GFS and GEM ops. are sniffing.

No snow here today but about about .80 freezing rain. The rain makes me happy!

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Thanks man.  It’s been a beautiful day here.  Beef stew in the crockpot, corn bread in the oven, and icy cold IPA’s for the football later.  

That sounds like home style cookin!!  Gets me up for a steak in about an hour.

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s a flat out joke. These are back to back runs under 26 hours. Yea, I guess in a way you can say it’s picked up on some trends at 12z so it adjusted, but what’s the point of running it beyond 24 hours if it does this crap? Always use it as a strictly nowcast tool never a forecasting one beyond a day. Lesson for the newbies


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The same can be said of the GFS, Euro, GEM. None of the models predicted how much we would warm overnight upstairs  after the HP moved offshore. Especially western areas. This threw everybody and everything including the NWS for a loop.

9 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Not sure what Stormy is looking at, but it was progged to begin as freezing rain/mix and flip to snow around 10:00 and then back to mixing around 12:00.  Hoping to cash in on a couple inches of slop during the ‘good’ period.
 

TWC sent Jim Cantore to Staunton so it must be happening!  Lol

eta: 30° and light freezing rain currently

Hello out west!  I'm well aware of what you say.  The HRRR brings the 850 freezing line to the west city limits of Staunton at 11 am, backs it up to Todd Lake at noon then Reddish Knob at 1 pm.

Good luck!

I'm reporting obs.  33.1 degrees w/ Lt.rain

This tells the story:

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

In Augusta county? What happened to the big snow?

Arkansas stole the 850's

6 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Euro much better for western areas

The Euro is out to lunch.   00z gave me 4.4 inches, the 06z gives me 2.5".

7:32 and I have 32.7 with light rain.

33 and dropping like a rock in Augusta County.

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cold day here. High of 36 after a low of 22. Currently 31.

Will be lucky to see a sleet pellet before the heavy rain. Strong southerly flow with a low tracking left of the coast and a retreating cold air mass is always a loser here.

The cold HP has dived southeast and offshore of Virginia, setting up this southerly flow.

That would have killed our chances in 1964 or 2024.

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Is that Augusta, Georgia?  I hear they're a snow town now.  

We used to be a snow town but Spruce and Snowshoe have gotten greedy in recent years since the Atlantic has divorced us.

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

35/20. Forecast high of 42 is going to bust. Will be watching to see those temps crash tonight before the cloud cover moves in. 

I'm much warmer down here in Augusta at 40.

Increasing threat of freezing rain adding another element to this system for west of the BR in the Central Valley.  2 inches of snow/sleet with up to .50" freezing rain.

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think you spoke too soon.

I hope you're right!!  But it will take another 8 inches of rain. (soaking steady rain)

1 hour ago, H2O said:

They’ve sprayed roads here. Where every model shows MBY getting 0.5”

I wanna talk with the dumbasses who decide these things. 

Its a sign of the times. 25 years ago we didn't engage in this lunacy. I know because I was in the business.

Dear God!    We cannot get out of Severe Drought!!!!!!

11 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Very pre mature? They have to issue watches at some point. More than half of guidance shows 4-8” out that way. They are issued for safety reasons to warn the public of the possibility, not to appease weenie dreams. They can always downgrade to an advisory closer to game time if need be.


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I understand the 36 hr. timeframe guidance.  But 50% confidence in meeting warning criteria?? 

The deterministic ECM is the only model minimally meeting warning criteria for most of Augusta and no model does for Nelson or Albermarle.    GFS 2.5", GEM 1.3", NAM 1.5". 

But, as you say,  they can always downgrade to an Advisory and they will unless a radical change occurs with the models.

From 00z to 12z, most of the models settled into a 1 - 3 inch special west of the Blue Ridge in the Central Valley.  All except the Euro.  It increased my snow from 2.6" to 5 inches!  The EPS increased from 3.1 to 4.3.   It has increased the qp from .48" to .72" but the borderline 850 and 925 is playing hopscotch all over the place.

My forecast west of the BR is 2 - 4".   For D.C. proper, a trace to 1 inch.

55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So wait VA went from an historic snow event to an ice storm in 36 hours? Honest question, haven't been following that area.

Ice is becoming more of a concern this morning in Augusta County.  My 3 model blend for 10:1 snow is still 5 inches but now up to .40" FR and 1 inch of sleet.

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.