stormy

After a very cold low of 21.8 this morning....................... A high of 48.......................................

Close to an inch of rain in the offing thru Friday.

Maybe 2 inches of snow in northern Highland above 3500 ft.

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Really!  My Goodness............................

Snow in Highland County Thursday night?    The NAM says yes.

18z NAM increases my qp from .67 to .84" Thursday night.   D.C. drops from .67 to .56"

Up to an inch of snow 30 miles to my west in Highland.

Wow!! What a difference a day makes for qp potential from noon Thursday - 9 am Friday.

My 3 model blend has increased from .26" at 2 pm yesterday to .95"  2 pm today.

ECM 1.24",  GEM 1.07",  GFS .53"................. I'll take it after .10" in the past 40 days.

17 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Next run of the gfs will be a hurricane coming up the East Coast rather than snow on the 18th to the 22nd we just don't know yet?  Soon though?

Its close to a hurricane on the 19th then snow for western areas by the 21st!!!!!!!!!

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Jan 3, 2022-  8 inches of snow and drifting.

Jan 7, 2022 - 3 inches snow.

Jan. 17, 2022 - 8.5 inches snow.

Jan. 28  - 1.3" snow

Feb. 13  - 2.0" snow

March 12 - 3.0" snow

21-22 gave me above normal snowfall !!

How about this, guys?

8 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for Sunday/early Monday.  Can we finally get some widespread rain????

Widespread???   No real doubt, Saturday thru Monday.............

More than any time during the past 30 days!!!

The question is:  Will it be .10" or 1.00"?????

19 hours ago, George BM said:

Rafael. 

Patty is a subtropical storm near the Azores right now.

Thanks George!

Future Hurricane Patty is born:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/032054.shtml?

29 frosty degrees at 7 am.

58 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Don't worry.  We will make up for the lack of precip on the back end.   

 

This now concludes my response readiness test for posting on the upcoming winter pattern.

If we want snow, we had better "make up for the lack of precip. on the back end".

It takes moisture for snow.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Something feels inherently “wrong” when you walk outside in late season warmth like this. Low sun angle and warm air just isn’t right.

I agree, but just imagine 1919 when it was 88!!!!!

My high yesterday was 78 and 80 today.....................

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Beats me but ninos do it in their own way too. Remember this, Nina's are a math calculation based on SSTAs in a specific (small but impactful) region of the Pacific. That's all they are. Sensible wx in various regions of the hemisphere are influenced by many other things. Second year "Nina's" are often just plain strange when you compare it to classic Nina weather. Ninos have hangovers no matter what enso does the second year. So it's not just Nina's.

We simply don't live in an area that gets back to back good snow years with few exceptions. Enso can't save us from that. Too much other stuff works against us by default (latitude). Nowadays, weather has been so volatile that old school thinking is no longer working. That's a big reason I don't engage during the fall much anymore. All that conventional thinking has been getting tossed by mid Dec as "real winter" shows up lol. 

Our snow climo has always kinda stunk. 70s and 80s werent really that different than today with weenie suicides. Us old timers like to memory compress the 70/80s. There were a few epic periods of snow and some epic cold but I wore no jacket to middle and high school quite often every winter. Early 80s were terrible except for Feb 83. Lots of warm. Lots of mixed or no frozen. Some epic cold with not a drop of precip and plenty of failed hopes and dreams. 

Big storms were really rare too. 79 was the first big storm I experienced in MD and my parents moved here in 72. After 1979, the next one was 83. I lived in MD for 11 years and only experienced 2 big storms. 95-96 and 02-03 individually destroyed the entire 11 year period lol. Now we expect big storms on the regular. Which isn't unreasonable because storms are clearly more energetic than 20+ years ago.

On the flip side, while we occasionally enjoy more energetic storms, there seems to be a shift away from old school 1-5" storms. Especially early season. Some of it is temp related but not all. Energetic NS shortwaves like clippers were a staple in MD for as long as I can remember but something shut off after 2015 and hasn't come back. Starting to think it's permanent and sure hope I'm wrong....

Winters in the dmv (for snowlovers) have been annoying as heck for the 40 years I lived through them and they will continue to be annoying long after I'm gone lol

 

 

Thanks Bob!  I always enjoy reading your take on things.

My memories of lots of snow and lots of cold always take me back to the 60's in the Valley.  We frequently had skating ice on ponds and rivers in those days and usually plenty of snow for sleigh-riding down slopes and across frozen ponds with 6 - 8 inches of ice. 

But, we have had some good years since the 60's like 77-78 with 55" of snow.  79-80 with 49", 86-87 53",  09 - 10 with 63" and who could forget 95 - 96 with 63 inches of snow. Even 13 - 14 with 41 inches would be nice again.

It will happen again and probably when we least expect it long- range.

12 hours ago, Jebman said:

It helps you are in western VA, at some elevation. Not as much trouble with the warming that comes off the Atlantic in some storms.

You are exactly right!! That can make a huge difference.

I have received 6 - 8 inches of snow when Charlottesville nearly a thousand feet lower received only rain.  This has happened several times in memory.

April 7 & 8 of 1971 Afton Mt. 7 miles to my southeast at 1850 ft. received 17 inches of snow. My backyard at 1350 ft. received 8 inches of snow and Charlottesville at 400 ft. received mostly rain.

1 hour ago, TSG said:

So what? Do you just 100% believe every headline you see? You should be angry at Ji for posting a false statement with zero evidence, not me. And then be angry with yourself for putting in zero effort to verify the validity of that statement before going off on this insane tangent

You are almost certainly joking. How many readers research to verify validity of a thread before they reply???? Your argument is insane!

1 hour ago, TSG said:

The guy is still working there you ding dong! He's changing roles. You are literally making things up in your head to fit a certain narrative. 

And common sense would tell us a move like this would have been in the works well before last week

You are such a partisan fool, it is hilarious.    What is the title of this thread??   "Anyone Know Why Jason Left Capital Weather Gang".......................

32 minutes ago, TSG said:

You make an accusation you have no evidence for, and then, because you know what you're posting is gossip level BS, you throw in a garbage "apology" as some kind of cover-your-ass move. What in the world are you smoking dude? Would you say this garbage to the face of your "onetime friend"?

With the uproar at the madhouse called Wa. Po. during the past week, common sense is compelling evidence.  Probably at least 75%. But I am man enough to not insist that I am always right. When I'm wrong I am man enough to apologize.

Common sense serves very well for those who have it. Those who don't have it often make an ass of themselves when confronted with common sense.

Jason and I were good friends 15 years ago when my handle on his sight before Wa. Po. was Augusta Jim.  He viewed my departure as a loss when I departed to launch my newsletter.  If he told me today that he departed because of Jeff Bezos, I would absolutely tell him that I think he used poor judgement.  He would accept my opinion because he is a reasonable man.

He doesn't have to go around trying to prove himself to the world with boisterous nonsense.

Here's the deal:

If Jason has left.

Jeff Besos the owner of Wa.Po.  decided to not endorse for president because of Media disaster on endorsements.

The endorsement Nonsense encouraged Bezos to not endorse. I fully endorse his decision.

Jason Samenow who I was a onetime friend with probably left with many others because of Bezo's  who was only acting with sanity.

I am disappointed with Jason for this partisan decision.

If I am wrong, I apologize.  

14 hours ago, Jebman said:

I say this winter in the DC Region will turn out to be more of an El Nino type. You will all get more snow than you might think.

Yes, this could happen.

A good example for my area is November - March of 21-22 which averaged -1.0 La Nina.

I received 28.50 inches of snow compared to an average annual 24.00 inches.

Its the most wonderful time of the year!!!  A time when speculation is high for the coming winter.

This year, our glee is low because of a coming La Nina winter......... Last year it was high because of El Nino............  What did that amount to ????

I have researched analogues for the past 70 years and I have to believe that we will have another low snowfall winter............  Do I believe we can simply blame it on La Nina or other Nonsense? No

I have also identified a bias toward a dry La Nina winter.

At least one other factor as stressed by PSU is the PDO.

I have identified 7 analogues back to 1955.

The CPC suggests that a Dynamic/Statistical blend for the coming winter will be -.6 to -.7.

This is based on my location which receives an average of 24 inches of snow and 15.45 inches of rain from November through March.

We begin with 2023 which averaged - 6.3 La Nina, I received 1.5 inches of snow and 14.21 precip. Low snow and Precip..

2001- 6.33 La Nina, 5.5 inches snow and 10.52 precip. Low snow and precip.

1984 - 6.33 La Nina, 10.0 inches snow and 25.72 precip. Above normal precip.

1975 - 5.6 La Nina, 9.8" snow, 12 .66 precip. Low snow and precip.

1972 - 6.6 La Nina, 4.7" snow,, 9.05 precip.  Low snow and Precip.

1965  -5.6 La Nina, 24.5" snow and 14.37 Precip.  Mother Nature always found a way to snow during the  '60's. The PDO was -.90 in January of 65

1955 - .7, 13.1 " snow and 17.41 Precip.

86% of the time during the past 70 years we have had a low snowfall winter with a - .6 La Nina and 86% of the time we have had a dry winter.

My broad blend gives us 10 inches of snowfall during this coming winter..........................

31 degrees at 7 am.

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not a lock that we have a legit Nina yet. Could end up a cold neutral. My hope hinges on most guidance hinting at a -EPO, a stretched, somewhat southward displaced TPV, and some hints of neg NAO episodes. Just have to wait and see how the pattern actually evolves, and as usual, hope we get some luck with wave timing and cold enough air mass.

The latest CPC info says a -.6 - .7 .  This certainly will be marginal but this level if accurate will be a downer for winter snowfall.  Moderate La Nina's don't smile on us for snowfall.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ridiculously simplistic, low effort, but typical with these predictions. No value whatsoever.

Possibly no value, but the long term Enso says we will likely have have a below normal snowfall winter with La Nina.   Cape, give me hope!!!!  

3 hours ago, yoda said:

 

 

Hey,  I love this exercise in futility!!!!!!! 

This is quite reasonable within my 70 year research of Enso  that I will post soon.