PhiEaglesfan712

1975-76 was the opposite of this year. That one was considered a strong la nina by the NOAA ONI (peaked at -1.7), while the RONI only peaked at -1.14

1976 clearly marked the transion from a la nina state (which began in 1949-50) to an el nino state. The question is whether this current la nina state started in 1998, 2005, or 2007. If it started in 1998, then the la nina state should be coming to an end soon. If in 2007, we might have another decade before we transition back into an el nino state.

On 5/19/2024 at 5:48 PM, Birds~69 said:

Friend in grade school had the commodore 64 so I was familiar with it.

Brother went to Drexel (1986) and the Macintosh PC along with Dot Matrix Printer were required for all freshman. It was a big upgrade from the Trash-80 and C64 but the Dot Matrix printer took 5 minutes to print a page and loud as hell. Little did we know less than 10 years later Windows would arrive...

https://drexel.edu/news/archive/2024/March/drexel-apple-40th-anniversary-macintosh-1984

I was in grade school when Windows 95 and 98 came out. That was peak Microsoft.

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No emergent broods in this part of the country correct?

That is correct. The only broods that are in this part of the country are II and X. Brood II last emerged in 2013, and will do so again in 2030. Brood X last emerged in 2021 and will do so again in 2038.

On 5/15/2024 at 6:54 AM, snowman19 said:

Given the already relentless background Niña state in the PAC (strong -PDO), and I strongly suspect a -IOD develops this fall into winter, if this Niña reaches 88-89 or 73-74 strength, this winter will definitely be in very, very serious trouble IMO. The 88-89 winter was wall to wall ++AO/++NAO

I think the 3-month head start helped in getting the 1988-89 La Nina that strong. If we applied the 1988 (-3 months) ONI values to 2024, things get interesting:

JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6

JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7

ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8

SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7

OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA)

NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA)

DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024?

JFM 1988: +0.3 -> AMJ 2024?

FMA 1988: 0.0 -> MJJ 2024?

MAM 1988: -0.5 -> JJA 2024?

AMJ 1988: -1.0 -> JAS 2024?

MJJ 1988: -1.4 -> ASO 2024?

JJA 1988: -1.5 -> SON 2024?

JAS 1988: -1.4 -> OND 2024?

ASO 1988: -1.5 -> NDJ 2024-25?

SON 1988: -1.7 -> DJF 2024-25?

The ONI got down to -2.1 in OND 1988 and NDJ 1989. I can't see that trend continuing to JFM and FMA, as the la nina should have peaked by then. I think we get a strong la nina that peaks in the -1.5 to -1.7 range in winter.

16 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The only similar El Nino to La Nina transition with the same global pattern in winter is 1997-98. You can make a weak case for 2002-03, 2009-10 but the warmth/cold are in the wrong spots. 1986-87 and 1952-53, 1979-80 (if you count them as El Ninos are OK matches too if you warm them up a degree or two globally.

1986-87 - This one continued into a strong el nino in 1987-88. Transition year was 1988, and 1988-89 was a historically strong la nina. I'd definitely keep 1988 as a top analog year for 2024. (The only difference is that the el nino peaked earlier in the season, but everything else from 1988 lines up with 2024.)

1952-53 - This one was a disjointed el nino over 3 years (1951-54). 1951-52 was a moderate el nino, while 1952-53 and 1953-54 were weak el ninos. Transition year was 1954, and 1955-56 was the strong la nina year, following a weak la nina in 1954-55. This isn't a good analog.

1979-80 - This one was a weak el nino, but there is no la nina anywhere to be found... Again, no analog here.

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this La Niña does in fact become strong, the most recent example we have that went from super El Niño right to strong La Niña would be 98-99

Yes, 1973 and 1998 are the only years that have transitioned from super el nino to strong la nina. Two other years, 1988 and 2010, transitioned from strong el nino to strong la nina (2024 would fit this category, since 2023-24 was a consensus strong el nino, rather than a super el nino).

The FMA numbers from NOAA are in. 2010 is still the best analog year for the RONI.

                NDJ 2009   1.57 DJF 2010   1.45 JFM 2010   1.09 FMA 2010   0.62 

OND 2023   1.49 NDJ 2023   1.47 DJF 2024   1.21 JFM 2024   0.85 FMA 2024   0.48 

New record high of 90F at PHL today. This makes April 24 the new latest day with a sub-90 record high.

I like 2010 as the analog year for May and the summer. I think after the mid-month cool down, we'll see well above average temperatures the final third of May and will be the prevalent theme throughout most of the summer.

On 4/16/2024 at 10:01 PM, Birds~69 said:

Despite not making it I still like Jones, Tortorella and crew w/additions.  Sucks they went on that damn 0-8 streak...I knew they wouldn't win the SC but playoff experience is important.

Would put down big bucks they make the playoffs next year and a little noise.

Now onto the Sixers....

Devils fan here. Don't be too confident about the Flyers making the playoffs next year. I learned this the hard way. After last season, I assumed we were going to take the next step and contend for the Stanley Cup this year. Instead, we got a regression this year. I'm not saying this will happen to the Flyers next year, but they've overachieved this year (like the Devils did last year), so it's possible they could step back next year instead of taking the leap forward to the playoffs.

9 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is an analysis of the average temperature by decade here in Chester County for the months March - April and May since the 1890's. The average temperature over these 132 years of records is 51.5 degrees. So far in the 2020's we are running about 0.5 degrees above the average. The 1940's were not surprisingly the warmest decade.

Here is the analysis for PHL during the same period. The 2010s, on the strength of the first 3 years (2010-2012) broke the record by over one degree from the previous decade. The 2020s are on pace to break that record.

1890s - 51.84

1900s - 52.51

1910s - 52.98

1920s - 53.23

1930s - 53.18

1940s - 52.81

1950s - 52.83

1960s - 51.31

1970s - 53.16

1980s - 52.89

1990s - 53.85

2000s - 54.17

2010s - 55.38

2020s - 55.34 (this will likely increase after 2024)

Long term average: 53.16

lol, I don't know what cold spring you're talking about because this one has been several degrees above average. 1996 and 1997 were actual cold springs, not this one.

Besides, we're going to get another 80+ degree day on Monday.

If we're using the RONI, then 2010 is the best fit year. Both el nino peaks were about the same, and at the same time. It looks like this year is falling at a faster rate. (Next best fit year would be 1988, but that el nino peaked earlier in the season.)

NDJ 2009   1.57 DJF 2010   1.45 JFM 2010   1.09 

OND 2023   1.49 NDJ 2023   1.47 DJF 2024   1.21 JFM 2024   0.86 

JAS 1987   1.47 ASO 1987   1.43 SON 1987   1.24 OND 1987   1.02 NDJ 1987   0.93 
DJF 1988   0.65 JFM 1988   0.30 

RONI peaks for the 1988-89 and 2010-11 La Ninas.

OND 1988  -1.92 NDJ 1988  -1.93 

SON 2010  -1.70 OND 2010  -1.70 

My guess is that the RONI peaks around -1.8 in late fall (SON/OND).

I will say this, if there was one thing unprecedented about the 2020-23 La Nina, it's the fact that it maintained the same strength for all 3 years. I can see an ENSO Neutral state lasting for several years, but maintaining a la nina event at -1 to -1.2C for 3 consecutive years should seem nearly impossible. I highly doubt something like that is going to happen again in our lifetimes.

Triple-year la ninas color coded

Weak La Nina:

Moderate La Nina:

Strong La Nina:

1908-09, 1909-10, 1910-11

1915-16, 1916-17, 1917-18

1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57

1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76

1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01

2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23

I'd say the 1954-57 (end date may be late 56) la nina event would be the closest comparison to 2020-23. The mid-50's la nina event was preceded by a disjointed triple el nino, with the last 2 years (1952-53 and 1953-54) being very weak. Plus, the third year of each la nina (56-57 and 22-23) dissipated early and transitioned into strong el ninos. Although, it looks like the trend will end, as 2024-25 is likely to be a strong la nina, while 1958-59 was still a weak el nino.

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Using the word "unprecedented" for a triple year event seems overly dramatic to me as these four were triples:

- 2020-1 through 2022-3

- 1998-9 through 2000-1

- 1973-4 through 1975-6

- 1908-9 through 1910-1

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

1915-16 to 1917-18 and 1954-55 to 1956-57 can be considered triples as well. Both had strong 2nd year events, surrounded by weaker Year 1 and 3 events. So, 6 triple-year la ninas in over 115 years.

Updated CPC ENSO Probability: 

It's looking like a late fall/early winter peak.

Back home now from Buffalo. While I didn't get the full experience of the eclipse due to the clouds, I was glad to see one last gasp of snow on Friday. I got to experience the four seasons in less than a week. Friday - Winter, Saturday to Monday - Spring, Tuesday - Summer, yesterday - Autumn