PhiEaglesfan712

Why is there even a flight from Atlanta to Tallahassee? That's within drivable distance.

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion

Advisory Number: 10
300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092046
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026
 
An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since 
this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in 
visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily 
on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to 
the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from 
around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning 
indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small 
it is.

Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly 
slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is 
still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick 
up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are 
particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in 
intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the 
NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the 
guidance envelope. 

The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the 
exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it 
moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track 
slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to 
quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther 
north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely 
allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, 
the difference between these track scenarios is less than the 
average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global 
models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance 
indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and 
intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to 
show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make 
it to emphasize that risk. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
late today.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Imelda getting retired, but not Idalia, doesn't make sense though:

Imelda: Cat 1 (90 mph), 3 fatalities, 2 injuries, $10 million damage

Idalia: Cat 4 (145 mph), 12 fatalites (8 direct/4 indirect), $3.5 billion damage

Idalia was the stronger hurricane, caused more damage, and had more casulties. If Imelda was retired, Idalia should have been as well.

Of those storms, Lili is probably the best match/analog, as that happened during a high shear/low activity/el nino year. Opal and Dennis happened in low shear/hyperactive years, so they aren't really good matches.

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down 

If we care about safety, there should be no games in this area on Saturday. Forget the $$$, common sense and safety should come first. These games can be played on Sunday or even Monday. 

Sandy made landfall on Monday (10/29/2012), and I didn't leave to go anywhere until Wednesday (10/31).

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994).

So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well, keep in mind that Idalia hit one of the least populated areas of the state. Idalia's eyewall was legit, but less damage=less need for retirement. That won't be the case with this one, even if it's weakening at the end, because it's hitting real population centers.

Not to mention the yet to be seen inland impacts in the south. 

Idalia should have still been retired. Lesser storms have been retired. Not having a retired storm for 2023 feels wrong. That was probably the most active strong el nino season ever.

My guess is that they are probably running out of I names, and they probably won't retire one unless they absolutely have to.

Then again, Emily not getting retired after 2005 shows how inconsistent name retirement is.

21 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

If Idalia didn't get retired, this one probably won't be either. Idalia got up to high end C4 speed, and this one is barely going to be a C3. 

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

 

 

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

 

 

I was originally going to Vermont in late January, but the first Nor'easter happened. I ended up going the weekend of March 7-9, and that point, the winter was just about over. I got temps in the mid-50s/lower 60s each day. I stayed in Manchester, and had to drive up to Weston on the last morning to see some frozen weather.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

Duke-GT (and any game in the pathway of the storm) shouldn't be played as scheduled either. Human lives are more important than a football game being played at its scheduled time. You can play the game on Sunday or Monday (or even move it to later in the season, if the teams' schedule allows it). Not ideal, but if it saves lives, it's all worth it.

48 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Side comment - I think we will see 1-3 named storms after this one with about a 50% chance of of another hurricane (likely in the subtropics).  But yeah, it's pretty comical that this one seems to be defying many of our expectations.

If it was September, maybe. But we're now in October, so I think at most, only one more named storm. There's no way we get 3 more named storms after this point, especially in an el nino.

Recent history says this will probably be the last storm of the storm. In the last 15 years, several seasons ended with the last active storm being the biggest (Sandy in 2012, Iota in 2020, and Melissa last year come to mind). 

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m wondering if 2020’s year of fiasco is the reason this name isn’t retired lol.  I was sure Isiaisis was retired after the damage it did in the NE in 2020 but usually the state governments or FEMA departments need to issue requests for retirement and probably due to everything else going on they never did so 

My guess is that they might be running out of 'I' names. They didn't retire Idalia either (after 2023). I think you need a Cat 4+ to retire an 'I' name now.

Then again, nothing will ever beat the f-up of not retiring Emily.

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Blazing out in Southern California but i suspect they will soon be much wetter later this month

 

SoCal records, Oct. 2–4

October 2

• Downtown LA: 103°F — new record, old 101°F
• Long Beach: 103°F — new record, old 98°F
• Burbank: 102°F — tied record
• Santa Ana: 105°F — new record, old 101°F
• Anaheim: 103°F — new record, old 101°F
• San Diego: 95°F — new record, old 94°F
• Chula Vista: 99°F — new record
• Vista: 100°F — new record
• Escondido: 105°F — tied record
• Newport Beach: 85°F — tied record CBS News

October 3

• Downtown LA: 104°F — 4°F short of daily record 108°F (1987)
• San Diego: 105°F — new record, old 104°F (1987)
• Oceanside: 105°F — new record, old 94°F — smashed by 11°F
• Fullerton: 105°F — new record, old 103°F
• Escondido: 108°F — new record
• Ramona: 105°F — new record
• Riverside: 106°F — new record
• Santa Ana: 105°F — near-record territory
• Santee area: 112°F — one of the hottest readings anywhere in the U.S. that day; the national high reported by NOAA/WPC was 112°F near Santee. WPC NCEP

October 4

• San Diego: 100°F — new record, old 97°F
• Burbank: 101°F — new daily record
• Camarillo: 99°F — new daily record
• NWS Oxnard: 99°F — new daily record

No surprise here. It's quite common for September or even early October to be the warmest time of the year on the California coast.

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

14 hours ago, RedSky said:

kick the field goal they still lose

 

Yeah, the right call was to go for it. What was wrong was the play call. The Eagles had total control of the game up until that point.

14 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thinking of the Great Atlantic Coastal Storm of March 1962 storm I researched a bit. The Atlantic was active in 1961 then relatively quiet in 1962 (least active since 1946.) El Nino didn't appear until 1963. Another 1962 storm, less well known to those of us in the East, was the Columbus Day Storm, the most devastating in Oregon history. 

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic.

Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I have to remind myself that we still haven't had a single hurricane form even after we broke the record on September 11th. It's October 2nd now and no hurricanes in sight. Absolutely unbelievable to still be seeing this. We really might get through this entire season without a single cane.

And here I thought that back in 2013, when we had a season with no hurricanes greater than C1 strength, that something like that would never happen again.

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. 

I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done. 

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one.

I thought the historic storm was in March 1993, not in December 1992. I always remember the winter of 1992-93 this way: (1) my youngest sister being born (December 29, 1992), then (2) her baptism (late January 1993), and finally the snowstorm (mid-March 1993).

I don't remember the storm happening first (in December 1992). I found this storm (which was right before my sister was born), but it appears further south: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=128

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new LGA update shows much longer delays than earlier with the quite strong winds along with lingering light rain/fog:

 LAGUARDIA ARPT LGT RAIN 61 59 93 NE30G47 29.54R FOG

 

Due to WEATHER / WIND and WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 1 hour and 43 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination".

Delays by Destination:  Due to WEATHER / WIND, departure traffic destined to La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA) is currently experiencing delays averaging 1 hour and 43 minutes.

General Departure Delays: Due to WX:Wind, traffic is experiencing Gate Hold and Taxi delays between 1 hour and 1 minute and 1 hour and 15 minutes in length and increasing.

 

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time.

This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow?  I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months.

Don't overthink this one. Just look at the Ash Wednesday storm and the Blizzard of 1993, both of which happened in March, outside of the Meteorological winter months. If it happens in January, we probably get something worse than those.

I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993?

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

Early November 2022 and 2024 also had temps in the 80s. All 3 of those years were +QBO:

Nov 2020: +11.15

Nov 2022: +12.45

Nov 2024: +13.78

I have a flight at PHL on Saturday night to Italy. I hope the storm holds off until at least then. If it doesn't, I might be stuck there for a while.