PhiEaglesfan712

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Typical convective nature of these summer events.  Some areas that have gotten hit could make a run at 15-18 inches of rain this month

Almost like August/September 1999, which climaxed with Hurricane Floyd. It put paused to a long running drought. If not for that, knowing what came after, we would have had a near 5-year continuous drought.

2 hours ago, Psychguy said:

Today was "exactly normal" in Philadelphia... high 88 and a low of 70. How often does that actually happen? Normal high and low hit on the dot, so to speak.

It probably happens a lot more often. All I know is that there was no weathergami today. 

In honor of LeBron going to the Sixers, let's change the lyrics of Will Smith's "Miami" to fit a more Philadelphia theme:

Uh, uh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, uh

Philadelphia, uh, uh

Southeast Pennsylvania, bringin the Sixers , uh

Haha, can y'all feel that

Can y'all feel that

Jig it out, uh

Here I am in the place where I come let go

Philadelphia the bass and the sunset low

Everyday like a mardi gras, everybody party all day

No work all play, okay

So we sip a little something, lay to rest the spill

Me an Charlie at the bar runnin' up a high bill

Nothin' less than ill, when we dress to kill

Every time the ladies pass, they be like "hi Will"

Can y'all feel me, all ages and races

Real sweet faces

Every different nation, Spanish, Hatian, Indian, Jamaican

Black, White, Cuban, and Asian

I only came for two days of playing

But every time I come I always wind up stayin'

This the type of town I could spend a few days in

Philadelphia the city that keeps the roof blazin'

Party in the city where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

"Bienvenidos a Philadelphia"

Bouncin' in the club where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

I'm goin to Philadelphia

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

Yo I heard the rainstorms ain't nothin' to mess with

But I can't feel a drip on the strip, it's a trip

Ladies half-dressed, fully equipped

And they be screamin out, "Will we loved your last hit"

So I'm thinkin' I'ma scoot me somethin' hot

In this salsa-merengue melting pot

Hottest club in the city, and it's right on the beach

Temperature get to ya, it's about to reach

Five-hundred degrees in the Delaware Bay

With the hot mamis screaming "¡Ay papi!"

Everytime I come to town, they be spottin' me

In the drop Bentley, ain't no stoppin' me

So, cash in your dough and flow to this fashion show

Pound for pound anywhere you go

Yo, ain't no city in the world like this

An if you ask how I know I gots ta plead the fifth "Philadelphia"

Party in the city where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

"Bienvenidos a Philadelphia"

Bouncin' in the club where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

I'm goin to Philadelphia

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

Don't get me wrong, Chi-town got it goin' on

And New York is the city that we know don't sleep

And we all know that L.A. and Miami stay jiggy

But on the sneak, Philadelphia bringin' Sixers  for real

Y'all don't understand

I never seen so many Dominican women with cinnimon tans

Mira, this is the plan

Take a walk on the beach, draw a heart in the sand

Gimmie your hand

Damn, you look sexy

Let's go to my yacht, in Rehoboth Beach

Ride my jetskis, loungin' in the palm trees

'Cause you gotta have cheese for the summerhouse piece on Southeast Pennsylvania

Water so clear, you can see to the bottom

Hundred-thousand dollar cars, e'ybody got 'em

Ain't no surprise in the club to see Sly, Stallone

Philadelphia, my fourth home

"Philadelphia"

Party in the city where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

"Bienvenidos a Philadelphia"

Bouncin' in the club where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

I'm goin' to Philadelphia

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

Party in the city where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

"Bienvenidos a Philadelphia"

Bouncin' in the club where the Sixers are on

All night, on the beach 'til the break of dawn

I'm goin' to Philadelphia

"Welcome to Philadelphia"

Party in the city where the Sixers are on

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

White Plains recorded its fourth consecutive low in the 50s. The last time that happened in July was during 2009. At that time, an El Niño was developing. Strong El Niño conditions are already present this year.

The real difference is that 2009 was near record cold throughout in June and July. This year has had wild temperature swings (since March). The first half of June was warm. The second half not so much. The first half of July was warm. The second half of July is going to be cold.

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

I think it was January 2019:

6 hours ago, NorthWestNJ said:

I thought strong Nino summers generally have a cool second half and a more normal first half. Could be wrong though.

Not really. 2009 was cold throughout, with the exception of one week in August. 2015 was warm from July-September. 2023 was cold in June, but very warm in July and September.

I will go with colder than 94-95, but warmer than 09-10, for this upcoming winter. Depends on the PDO, though. If it stays deeply negative, it will end up closer to 94-95, but if it can go towards neutral, then it will end up closer to 09-10.

2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Kinda off topic but I saw Cecily Tynan post she has big personal news to announce at 6PM. Wonder if she is going to ABC News? 

I think she's retiring.

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

 

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Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

I thought July 2012 broke the record for the warmest month. Or is that still in verification stage?

Barring a major volcanic eruption, like we had with Pinatubo in 1991, I'm almost certain next summer in most of the Eastern US is going to be record breaking hot. We may not see the high temps of 2011 or earlier this month, but the heat will be more consistent throughout like in 2010 and 2016 (both post-el nino summers).

37 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

It actually happened in 2013:

15 years ago saw one of the most widespread heatwaves for this area. Newark set an all-time record of 108: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/july-22-2011-a-day-of-records.html

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.

—————————
Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

Yeah, the connection has been spotty this morning.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest.

I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

Yes, it was Feb 2015, but if something like that happened now, someone will be quick to point out that +10 temp departure in Las Vegas or somewhere out West.

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?

Yes, I'm pretty sure the August spike was 2023, and likely the September spike as well. I remember there being an anomolous heatwave in South America in August 2023, and another one the following month.

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far.  Which is lucky.

Last year was a frontloaded warm summer, with the heat wave in late June and the warmth lasting all through July. The summer pretty much ended after July 31.

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July.  EWR at 6 currently

 

Year	July 90° Days	August 90° Days	Difference
2021	10	13	+3
2018	9	14	+5
2015	11	13	+2

 

 

Year	June	July	August
2021	13	10	13

Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.

So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.

I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/

Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East

Verification in (C)

94-95 was really skewed by February. The rest of that winter (November-January and March) absolutely torched in the Eastern US and was actually cool in the West. I'd say 14-15 was the best match for 25-26.

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

8 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

This was a textbook frontloaded warm/backloaded cold winter. If we continued this into spring, I believe April 1983 was the coldest April on record CONUS. That one had a major freeze/snow event in the Eastern half of the country (impacting the midwest on the 13th-16th, and North Carolina northward on the 19th-22nd).

4 minutes ago, BBasile said:

You sure it's not your diet?

I'd stay away from lettuce, at least until the drought is over.

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

 

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

Perfect weather for Eagles football

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

MCS/Derecho chances on the rise for this weekend in the northwest flow around the heat dome- winds in those things can reach 100 mph ...........last one to hit central NJ was Labor Day 1998

I thought we had one in late June 2012, just ahead of the early July 2012 heatwave.