PhiEaglesfan712

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can you imagine the meltdowns if that ever happened now?? Lol

This happened, maybe even worse, in March 2001. This is the all-time bad beat:

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

If this is it for prolonged cold and lots of snow chances, I’m glad we had a front loaded winter for once. I’m fine with an early spring with the kind of winter we had in December and January.

This really isn't a frontloaded winter. Our biggest storm was on January 25, and our coldest air of the season went into February. When I think of a frontloaded winter, the cold and snow comes in November and December, and the worst is out by January 15 at the latest. 1989-90 is one that comes to mind.

On 2/4/2026 at 5:39 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still find it so disappointing the way 2010/2011 seemed like it was on its way to break all the snowfall records and just died. 
Still a great winter overall for most but the last six weeks a big disappointment for many.  

2010 and 2011 are the ultimate regress to the mean seasons. Both years had so much snow in little time, but ended rather abruptly. Late spring/early summer absolutely torched during those years, and many all-time hot records were broken during those two years (2012 as well, but that winter never really happened that year, outside of a freak late October snowstorm).

I see a possible event on the 24th/25th. If that doesn't hit, then it's probably lights out for the winter. The first half of March looks very warm.

42 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on! 

If we get a strong el nino, the summer leading into the el nino will be warm in the Western US, and the summer exiting the el nino will be warm in the Eastern US. The only time that was flipped was the 1991-92 el nino, but that was due to Pinatubo.

If the el nino ends in early 2028, then that might meaning cooler (more comfortable) weather for the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.

The February 2017 event was a very sharp cutoff. Those south of Philly got next to nothing. Almost like the 2013 storm.

The March 14, 2017 event was more widespread. Upstate New York added to one of their most snowy seasons on record, while it saved the season for Philly, and even Baltimore/DC cashed in for a few months (though they still ended up with ~3 inches of snow for the whole season).

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You sure they didn't mean anomalywise?

Even if that were to happen, with how cold a February we have, we'd need to have like a -7 March, and a -10 April, which would put us at record cold levels. I'm guessing the cold has peaked, and the temperature anomalies will revert towards the mean, and we'll have a warmer than normal spring. Seems to always be that way after colder winters, like 2010, 2011, and 2015.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who doesn't understand that the sun is getting higher? Jesus....

I thought people learned that in 2015, when April was warm, and May torched. Are people saying that March is going to be colder than February, and April is going to be colder than March again?

The schools must be failing the children because I learned this in grade school.

For those who don't know, here's the general rule (for the Northern Hemisphere): The sun gets higher from about early January to early June, stays about steady (at the maximum) for a few weeks in June, then the sun goes lower from late June to early December, and stays about steady (at the minimum) from early December to early January. (In the southern hemisphere, this is reversed.)

2 hours ago, North and West said:

While it lasts? C’mon... It’s been nippy nearly the whole season since thanksgiving.


.

You even have to know that the cold is on borrowed time. Over time, the law of averages say that things eventually return to the mean. Our recent cold winters (like 2010, 2011, and 2015) all had very warm spring months.

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Period to watch if we could sneak a warm (50+) day in 2/17 - 2/20 period or will warmth be shunted south of PHL

 

I'm looking to the first week of March. I see warmth and 60-degree days coming.

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims.

The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. 

I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Blocking in Greenland in March/April gives us damp/cool/cold weather.   

That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April.

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

any evidence ?

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You are still on the warm train? You have been warm the whole winter.

Not on the short term, but definitely on the long term. February is still going to end up below average, but I expect things to be closer to average (and probably on the warm side) in March, and well above average in April.

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

Got to hope the cold returns late February.

Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.

45 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The MJO is going in the wrong direction too. Not sure how late February to mid March is gonna deliver. The only possible is if the MJO forecast is wrong

Most of the rest of February looks good, if you're looking for cold air. The MJO is going to stay in Phase 3 from about 2/13 to 2/23. Around 3/1 (give or take a few days), the pattern flips warmer. I'll be shock if we don't get a temperature in the 60s during the first week of March.

29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Thinking 75-80s with spotty 90s in highly urbanized areas…

That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Agree. They just updated the forecast and backed off the totals big time. 

More like a sleet/ice storm, but I'm not thinking too warm. However, I do think a 65+ high is highly likely during the first week to 10 days of March.

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I hope March is an all out torch but weeklies dont see it

I don't think March will be an all-out torch. I think it's above average, but around +1 or +2 departure. I see April being the torch month.

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Of course it will end eventually. But last week after I posted that Hurricane Schwartz thinks winter will linger later this year you said that means the opposite and here we are at 15F at 5pm about a week later. So sure, you can turn your nose to the science and the forecasts or you can just accept that we are having a long harsh winter. It will eventually end, birds will chirp, life will go on, and we will be complaining about 7 days straight of heat indices of 110+ and sky-high electric bills from the AC.

It's only February 8. I never said the cold would just suddenly disappear. Weather doesn't work on the flip of the switch. I said the colder than average weather would be coming to an end in the final days of February or the first days of March. That's still ~3 weeks from now. There is still time to enjoy the cold weather. I'm not so sure you'll get that opportunity next month.

Besides, long and harsh winters aren't anything new. We've had such winters as recently 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15. All but the 2013-14 one produced some very warm spring months.

36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The next arctic push in two weeks already becoming apparent on guidance

I see it ending during the final days of February or the first days of March. After that, there will be a pattern change: 

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

How does all this correlate to sensible weather?

Don't listen to them. When people say that the cold will never end, you know the opposite is going to happen, and cold pattern is nearing this end. Look at what happened when people on AccuWeather, in early March 2015, were saying that April and May 2015 will be colder. April ended up above average, and May was at or near record warmth.

Expect March to finish with above average temperatures, and April to be a Top 10 warmest month.

The only way for the cold pattern to continue is if the sun is replaced with a smaller star. (Not going to happen.)

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

 

I have October and November as NN, December and January BN. September is the most recent month AN.

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months.