PhiEaglesfan712

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big  temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off.

What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter.

It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this. 

1993-94 (and possibly even 1995-96) was the result of the after effects of Pinatubo, our last major volcanic eruption. The cooling effects definitely wore off by the 1997-98 el nino, which was the next big global temperature jump.

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Unfavorable enso you think? Nina has been so dominant in the 2020s its insane. We need a good string of niños for the latter half of the 20s to avoid the decade being another disaster like the 80s or worse.

The decade from 1982-92 was el nino/+PDO heavy. We had 3 strong/super el ninos back-to-back (82-83, 86-88, and 91-92), and a +PDO la nina (83-85). The only real break from el nino/+PDO was the strong la nina in 88-89.

Not anything like 2016-present, which has been la nina/-PDO heavy.

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left....

 

 

 

He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative  and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong  nor sustained as 25-26.

 

When people start to say stuff like this, I almost know the opposite is going to happen. I'd be willing to bet March is going to be above average temperaturewise, and April is going to be a Top 10 warmest month, possibly even near record warm.

I'm just skeptical of the prospect of record 70+ degree warmth in the middle of the month. I would love for it to happen, but with how cold it has been for most of the winter and the beginning of this month, I just don't see it happening.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been a top 30 coldest 10 day period on Long Island and the coldest since 2017.

Minimum 10-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.3	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-18	0
2	8.6	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-19	0
3	9.9	1979-02-11 through 1979-02-20	0
4	10.0	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-17	0
5	11.3	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-16	0
6	11.9	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-15	0
7	12.5	1968-01-04 through 1968-01-13	0
8	12.7	1979-02-12 through 1979-02-21	0
9	12.8	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-14	0
10	13.0	1968-01-02 through 1968-01-11	0
11	13.2	1968-01-03 through 1968-01-12	0
12	13.5	1968-01-05 through 1968-01-14	0
13	14.0	1968-01-01 through 1968-01-10	0
14	15.0	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-13	0
15	15.2	1968-01-06 through 1968-01-15	0
16	15.5	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-09	0
17	15.6	2017-12-29 through 2018-01-07	0
-	15.6	1981-01-04 through 1981-01-13	0
18	15.7	1968-01-07 through 1968-01-16	0
19	16.0	2017-12-28 through 2018-01-06	0
-	16.0	1981-01-03 through 1981-01-12	0
-	16.0	1968-01-08 through 1968-01-17	0
20	16.2	1965-01-11 through 1965-01-20	0
21	16.3	1979-02-13 through 1979-02-22	0
22	16.4	1982-01-10 through 1982-01-19	0
23	16.4	1981-01-05 through 1981-01-14	0
24	16.5	1977-01-12 through 1977-01-21	0
25	16.5	1977-01-15 through 1977-01-24	0
26	16.6	2017-12-30 through 2018-01-08	0
-	16.6	1977-01-13 through 1977-01-22	0
-	16.6	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-20	0
27	16.8	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-02	0

I find this list hard to believe to be correct without any February 2015 dates listed on here.

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

We don't have wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters. Even our best winters feature a relaxation period. Right now it looks like our January thaw will occur mid Feb. Where we go from there? I don't know. Maybe winter is over, maybe it reloads.

For now, I'll keep an eye on Friday and hope we score another car topper with cold temps returning for the weekend. Five days at a time.

Uh, we had a January thaw from about 1/6-1/15:

17 years ago (February 3-4, 2009):

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

What month is this future's contract for? March or April?

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

We had April torches in 2017 and 2019 (those were two of the warmest Aprils ever), as well as the first half of April 2023 (before we turned cold, which lasted until the end of June).

Thing about February is that it's only 28 days. The cold beginning is going to eat a good chunk of the month. For the warmer days to eventually outweigh the colder days, we're going to need to string together some record-breaking, 70+ heat. I just don't see it happening.

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

BN, I'm getting March 2015 vibes. The first week being well below average, a continuation of the previous month, and set the tone for the month, but I feel like a pattern change is coming, with the string of below average months coming to an end soon. Something tells me March is going to be above average (like April 2015), and April is going to be a near record warm month (like May 2015).

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 2018/2023 redux?

Definitely not a March 2018 redux. That was a record snowy March here at PHL, and quite frankly, I can't see that outcome happening again.

At some point, I've got to think this string of cold months has to end at some point. Even in 2018, we had the very warm February that interrupted an otherwise cold and snowy winter pattern.

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yeah that -NAO has been the source of our cold since December even while the western half of US was roasting in December and January. If the -NAO goes positive, while we'll still have some entrenched cold, it could get pretty warm at the end of the month. Even with a SSW, there's no certainty that it'll lead to a March 2018 scenario. Could easily lead to a March 2023 scenario which was not as frutiful for most of us 

2023 just took too long to develop. By the time things turned cold, it was already May and June, and the snow season was over. We got our coldest June since 1985, and (tied with 3 other years) for 31st coldest June overall at PHL. To put into perspective how impressive that cold was, December 2025 was only the 48th coldest December, while January 2025 was the 46th coldest and January 2026 was the 59th coldest January in PHL.

7 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

That's because some of the warmth in the West this season is all time record level and objectively more statistically significant. The cold in the Eastern U.S. this season really isn't even close to unprecedented. That's the idea, that the warm anomalies in a warming world are simply going to outweigh the downstream/upstream cold anomalies. 

The West has also had some decent cold winter stretches in the last decade (2016-17, February 2019, 2022-23) but nothing as historically impressive as the warmth that's happened this season thus far out here. And in those stretches the East was generally seeing historic levels of winter warmth that outweighed it. 

Yeah, the last time we had record warmth in the West, at least the East had some historical cold.

As cold as this winter has been in the East, it doesn't hold a candle to 13-14 and 14-15.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I never knew that....and I certainly never heard that on here. But I looked it up and you are correct. The winter of 1976-77 was by far the warmest on record in Alaska. Oh, another thing that's never, ever brought up. The deep cold alaska was in during March 2012. I just can't figure out why we were never discussing those things The many, many times 2012 or 1977 have been brought up 

The odd thing about 2012 and 1977 is that both ended up producing record warm springs in most of the eastern half to two-thirds of the US.

1 hour ago, snowwors2 said:

Not sure about the -11.9 but we’re in Tinicum twp and the area is incredibly remote with nothing but fields forests and creeks and very few homes…

We sit directly above Smithtown creek as compared to other areas of Pipersville that are more “urban” near Easton rd WaWa etc!

Tinicum Twp is where the Airport is, and PHL had a low of 10 this morning. -12 (or 22 degrees colder) seems impossible, and it would be lower than PHL's lowest ever temperature, which was set in February 1934.

I'd be willing to bet the low is somewhere in between both. 10 seems too high, -12 seems too low.

6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Have you ever made a spelling, grammar or fact error since the beginning of the internet? 

15F

That statement isn't even correct. January 2010 wasn't below average temperaturewise, and both November 2009 and March 2010 were really warm. 2009-10 had historical snow, but it was done in a very short window, and wasn't really historically cold. After snowmageddon, the winter was pretty much over, and we had 90 degree temps in early April (years like 95-96, 02-03, and 13-14 - all wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters - it was still snowing at that point in the season). 

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?! 

Both had more intensity/longevity, and went on later. Based on 1981-2010 normals, January 2014 was -4.6, February 2014 -3.6, and March 2014 -4.6 departure (November 2013 was -2.1). January 2015 was -2, February 2015 -10, and March 2015 -4.4 (November 2014 was -2.4).

December is the only month preventing 13-14 and 14-15 from having a wall-to-wall 5 months (November-March) below average.

50 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

That was a good storm, except we dry slotted for a period in the afternoon which kept it from being a great storm. Still, I'd sign up for a repeat.

I was a junior in high school, taking the SATs that morning. It snowed pretty much the whole day, as far as I can remember. That was the last time a clipper (turned Nor'easter) really produced.

2026 joins 2005 and 2016 in the Conference Championship weekend snowstorms. Mark one down for 2036 or 2037 next?

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

The 10-year snow drought is over: https://x.com/amarkowitzWX/status/2015592086276313584

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different? 

Probably more muted. I highly doubt we see a record February warm, then a record snowy March, like we did in 2018. Both months will probably be much closer to normal, and I wouldn't be surprised if one actually had a +5 departure.

49 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

5. 1994 (I wasn't yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.  

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon.

The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me 

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

I moved my Vermont trip to March 7-9. We can be sure there won't be a snowstorm that weekend, right?