PhiEaglesfan712

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001.

I'm pretty sure 2006 had a colder than normal first half and second half of September. It also had a colder than normal first half and second half of October. Then, things really flipped and we had record warmth from November through the first of January 2007 (before the bottom fell out of the thermometer in February 2007).

18 minutes ago, roardog said:

In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.

What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….
 

First time since 1992 we have no tropical activity at the peak of the season. That, of course, followed Hurricane Andrew.

It's looking more and more like Erin is going to be a one-off, like Andrew.

1 minute ago, bncho said:

kinda seems like ur "grasping at straws". everything about last year was a la nina except enso, which was pretty close. it's foolish to think that -0.4 is much different than -0.7.

Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state.

I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.

1988 was one that turned cold really quickly. The summer, particularly from June to the first half/two-thirds of August, was then a warmest on record. Then at the end of August, it just turned cold, and never really looked back. October 1988 was one of the coldest on record, and in some spots, beat out the cold standard of October 1976:

Come to think of it, the warm west makes this look like the October version of February (or JFM) 2015.

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs (9/6)
 

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
TEB: 89
New Brnswck: 89
ACY: 88
TTN: 88
BLM: 87.1
LGA: 86
NYC: 86
ISPL 82
JFK: 81 

Barring a 10/2/2019 event, this should be all she wrote for the summer weather until next season.

Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The reason the Euro seasonal snowfall forecast worked out from Philly to Boston is that the storm track matched the seasonal forecast. So it didn’t really matter for the snowfall outcomes that the overall forecast for DJF was too warm. Since the colder conditions than forecast last winter all arrived behind the Great Lakes cutters after the warm storm tracks. 

I love how you cherry pick "Philly to Boston". Why not the mid-Atlantic (Philly to DC)? Oh wait, a lot of places there had a higher snow average the last 2 years than in 16-17 to 22-23, so it won't fit your agenda?

4 hours ago, roardog said:

I’ll take Nina over Nino every time around here in the winter. Hopefully we do have a “warm” October. It feels like a lot of times a cold October turns into a mild December. Although, that’s  probably due to a cold October being more common in a Nino. A cold October is kind of useless anyway except for chasing the first flakes of the season or some sloppy early season slush accumulation that melts in a few hours. 

Classic case is 2011. That was a cold October, with a snowstorm at the end of the month. Pattern flipped soon thereafter, and it was blowtorch from November through March.

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is very good support this time for a big shakeup in the pattern by October. Projected tropical forcing/MJO, -ENSO, -PDO, -IOD. I am becoming increasingly confident that October is very likely to be warmer to much warmer than normal….also potentially much drier than normal as well

Octobers have been almost always warmer than average since 2010. Funny enough, the only 2 that were below average were 2011 and 2022, and both of those winters were snowless blowtorches.

28 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to wearing the hoodie again this t-shirt weather last few days is not my style..

This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.

FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. 

The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23.

The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Jalen Carter is starting to remind me of Leon Lett. Hope the coaching staff and teammates help him get his head out of his @$$!!! 

If I were running the team, I would trade Jalen Carter as soon as possible, hopefully get a lot of picks out of it, and let someone else pay him in the offseason (and be their problem).

We should have kept CJGJ instead. The difference between CJGJ and Carter is that CJGJ knows where the line is, and doesn't cross it. Can't say that about Carter.

33 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's been pretty constant central-subsurface cold since the 23-24 El Nino. You can see how the surface has been running much warmer than the subsurface (more credence to RONI), which makes me think that when we finally do shift to El Nino, it will be warmer than the subsurface Kelvin Waves would indicate. Pretty good chance we go to El Nino in 2026 or 2027. 

It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging:

JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2

JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46

August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12)

If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate.

If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the strongest -IOD since the 22-23 and 16-17 La Ninas.  

My guess for the rest of this season is that the ACE will finish below the 161 level of last year.

 

I guess this means the upcoming winter is cooked and torched.

I had a below 161 ACE before the season even begun, and it was pretty apparent by mid-June. The better question now is if we're even going to hit half of 161 ACE.

5 hours ago, George001 said:

In theory the atmosphere should be even more nina like than last year. La Niña development started taking off around a month ago, and will likely be stronger than it was last year in late fall. Whether it lasts long enough to register as an official La Niña by ONI is uncertain, but it doesn’t really matter. At this point, the logical assumption is to expect weak la Niña conditions this winter.

The big difference is in 1+2. Last year was never going to behave like a la nina with that east-based el nino.

Looks like a Greenland block in October: 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the hype on twitter that there’s going to be a huge Atlantic tropical burst this month, this isn’t looking so hot @PhiEaglesfan712
 

Yeah, it's about time to face the music and accept that this season may be a below average activity hurricane season. Keep in mind, we're at the point when Felix hit. No major storms formed after that point that year, and that was a strong la nina.

A one-storm wonder season is not even unprecedented. Andrew hit in August, like Erin, and there wasn't another major storm the rest of the season.

8 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Aren't we supposed to get 80 degree days?  That's summer weather in my book.

Then, by this logic, summer began on March 29 this year.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last cooler summer relative to earlier periods was in 2014. But we haven’t had a significantly cooler summer relative to the past since 2009. That was our last top 10 coldest June into July period. 

Technically, it was 2023, if we go strictly by JJA. However, September was warmer than June in 2023, so JAS 2023 would have taken us above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

On 8/31/2025 at 12:17 PM, psv88 said:

 Crazy how early fall set in this year. At least it’s been sunny 

As I said, watch there be 100-degree heat at this time next year. It hasn't happened since 1953, and we are way overdue for this.

Fall set in early last year as well. It can't possibly happen 3 years in a row.

On 8/31/2025 at 1:01 PM, Dark Star said:

Not sure if it is "set in" quite just yet?

It's been here for a while. The pattern changed around August 1. Aside from the heatwave from about the 12th-17th, it's been fall-like for the most part. Summer is likely not coming back until next year, unless we get that odd temperature spike (like Oct. 2, 2019).

High 75 at O'Hare yesterday. I'll be leaving Chicago shortly.