PhiEaglesfan712

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you kidding me??  W(where)TF have you been. We’ve had temps in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s in April here in the past for a week.  You’re so f’n LOST bro! 

Yeah, 50 years ago was the Easter/Patriot weekend heatwave:

11 hours ago, BrianW said:

Forgot about that warm stretch in April 23 where BDL hit 92/96.

May and June that year was really cold. I don't think it reached 96 in those months (I know it did in July and September). Of course, there was the freeze on May 18.

10 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I'm with drought guy @Albedoman though growing a bit concerned about the lack of rain in the forecast. April is typically one of our wettest months and the long range looks mostly warm and dry outside of a few brief frontal passages. No mud season this year.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a nice rainstorm/mud season in October this time, when the high school football season is in full swing.

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

Same thing with the strong la ninas. 1916-17 was the only one in the first 100+ years post-1850. (Coincidentally, 1917 was the year when global average temperature hit a minimum.) Since then, we've had strong la ninas in 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C. 

10 hours ago, Monty said:

May 18th, 2023 is a day that will live in infamy for gardeners and farmers across the tri state. 

Also, May 9, 2020. Both of those happened after very warm and virtually snowless winters.

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.)

From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023.

1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record.

All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.5° (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Don't you mean April? And I think these temperatures are severely underestimated. This April looks like it's going to be near record warm.

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA:  91 (2010)
JFK: 87 (2010)

It's amazing how quickly a pattern can change. Not even 6 weeks earlier, we were wrapping up a very cold and snowy February. Almost like what we have this year.

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Pinger squall


.

This can't be. Pinger season has been done for 2 months now.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas.   Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur.  

Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that.   Where is this extremeness coming from ?   

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super):

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987)

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

That April 1982 snowstorm showed just what could have been. If not for a long lull in February and March, 1981-82 could have been a historic snow season. But the April storm was a nice reminder of that cold and snowy pattern in January 1982.

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.

Global temperatures seem to bottom out around 1917 (following a super la nina), at about -0.2 lower than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial mean. If we use 1917 as the zero point, 1.5C would have been first breached in 2016, and the global temperature anomaly for 2024 would be at +1.8C.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

What was that Easter in the 90s where it was warm and sunny and the next day we got like a foot of snow?

I believe it was 1997. I remember Easter Sunday, March 30, being warm. Then, it snowed on Monday (3/31) and Tuesday (4/1).

JFM 2026 RONI -0.7

JFM 2026 ONI -0.2

10 hours ago, kdxken said:

Stupid UConn women.  The men held up their part of the bargain (so far). Oh well, the living room's not that bad. 

 

I'm hoping that UCLA wins the Women's National Championship. This program last won a National Championship in 1978, before the Women's Tournament existed. Plus, Lauren Betts and the seniors deserve to end their careers with a title.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Need some serious CAA for the Park to go below 30 this late. Suburbs that radiate well are a different story


.

We did get close on May 9, 2020, and that was following a very warm and virtually snowless winter:

13 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'll believe it when I see it...

It's been like this since about March 8, a coast-to-coast torch.

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November. 

The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet.

5 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

We have some pretty wild temperature swings coming in the next 3 days. All of these look to happen in the span of just a couple of hours.

Warm front tomorrow: 50s -> 70s

Backdoor cold front Saturday afternoon/evening: 80s -> 50s

Warm front Sunday morning: 40s -> 60s

Cold front Sunday afternoon: 60s -> 40s

Something weird is going on. I haven't seen this many temperature swings like this year. 20 degrees is normal, but there have been many 30, 40, and even one 50-degree swing so far. That isn't normal. I really hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one day, and then 60 the next, in June or July. If I wanted this type of weather, I would move to Nebraska.

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

ECM has snow shower activity Tuesday

 

Where? Vermont? NH? Maine? Because there isn't any snow happening anywhere near here.

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only 10 days away on an OP run - what could go wrong ???

All these torches since early March have hit, though.