PhiEaglesfan712

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t know as the models are already very cold with MB normal in the NE, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest:

6Z GEFS:

 

0Z EPS:

 

 

We need to take advantage of this. If we come out of this with very little to no snow, the winter will be in trouble. It would be like 2022-23 all over again.

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

We did get a good 3-week window of cold and snow between December 23 and January 15 in 1998-99. The rest of that winter (first 3 weeks of December and the 2nd half of January/February) was a torch, though.

15 hours ago, JTA66 said:

We do spring in winter well.

The best example is 89-90. We had the coldest December on record, then the weather turned springlike when the calender flipped to January.

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

23 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro op runs the rain/snow line near route 202 

5-6" the I78 corridor

 

How much do you think for EWR?

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

When does the Soul season start? Asking for a friend.

Sorry, the Arena Football League is defunct. However, the Phillies season begins on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Windy and nippy out there. Birds better use a shitload of Barkley today..... 

 

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

How much snow for EWR on Tuesday?

40 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I’m guessing you thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year too? It was seriously a comedy of errors and typically nfl refball on Sunday. Holy overreaction. The Bears suck, they get killed by every good team they face and it’ll be the same here. They’ll be lucky to score 14 unless the refs literally give it to them with bullshit penalties like they did for Dallas on two of their drives Sunday. Eagles still should have won that game if the league wasn’t beholden to the books even with that comedy of errors that’s the funniest thing. League gets worse and worse every year with “coincidental awful officiating that just so happens to severely benefit the team being blown out”. 

No, I wasn't one who thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year. Heck, I didn't even lose faith after the Giants game earlier this year. I'd much rather have the losses to Bucs last year and the Giants game earlier this year. At least I can understand that we didn't have it that day. Crap like that happens sometimes.

But after this loss to the Cowboys, I've completely lost faith in this team. (The last time I lost total faith in the Eagles was the loss to the Seahawks on that Monday Night in 2023, and I couldn't have been more correct.) You can't lose a game up 21-0, especially when you have a running back as great as Saquon Barkley. The Eagles never blew a 21-0 lead before, not even during the great collapse of 2023.

I thought holding onto a 21-0 lead was not asking too much, but if they can't do that, then I need to lower my expectations for this team. The Eagles might beat the Raiders and split with the Commanders to get to 10 wins (and that may still be enough to win the NFC East), but this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs.

In short, this Eagles team is soft and undisciplined. Don't expect that to magically change on Friday. The Bears are a tougher team, and will beat us.

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Models are looking somewhat interesting for next week. GFS/Euro both give us a few inches of snow from a SWFE next Tuesday.

Now that drought guy is doubting it, I'm optimistic about this storm happening. 

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A big part of the problem nowadays is flooding the general public with unrealistic expectations, then when it fails, they lose all trust in the “weathermen”. We have pro mets (no not on here) blindly hyping “MJO phase 8!!!”, speaking in declaratives without any context like it’s always a guaranteed magical light switch and using/hyping extreme analogs like December, 1983, December 1989 and December, 2010, telling people that it’s going to be a redux. When the public sees that and it ends up failing, they lose trust in the profession 

December 2010 is the only one that's reasonable. At least that happened in the newer climate. (It's not a good analog, but due to other things... like near solar min and strong la nina, features we don't have this year. Maybe it could work if we have a strong la nina in place in December 2028, when we're closer to a solar min.)

December 1983 is an older, colder climate. Not likely to happen unless we have a Pinatubo event. (83-84 actually would have been a very good analog for 95-96.)

December 1989, well, that was a once-in-a-lifetime event. A coldest December on record, followed by an early turn to spring (and never looking back) is almost certainly never going to happen again.

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway.  I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.  

Funny, that year behaved the opposite of a nino (due to Pinatubo). Normally, you'd get the cool summer in the East preceding the el nino and the warm summer in the East following the el nino. Instead, the summer of 91 was a record warm summer in the East, and the summer of 92 was the cold summer in the East.

Of course, Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling, which led the snowier winters of 92-93, 93-94, and maybe even 95-96.

I hate to say it, but I feel the Eagles are on the verge of a 2023-type collapse. This team is way too soft to even hold on to a 21-0 lead. The offense is broken, and the defense can only hold up for so long. (In fact, I can see the defense starting to crack.)

The Eagles are going to lose on Friday, and will probably end with a 9-8 or 10-7 record. That may still be good enough to win the NFC East, but we will likely lose to a team like Seattle in the Wild Card round.

18 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal. 

2020-21 is the only winter in NYC that even surpassed the 20-inch mark since 2018-19:

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dec 2021 was one of the strongest -PNA's.. what I see on models right now is a "moderate -PNA event" in early Dec. I also don't know that it sustains beyond like a week. We'll see. If it lasts into mid-December that would be a little different from what we have seen this year (where -PNA's last 7-10 days then go away). 
 

December 2021 was a very warm December in the Eastern US (I think only 2015 was warmer). If we're not going to get any snow in December, then I hope it's a torch. At least it can come back to average at some point in the winter (like January 2022). The worst possible outcome is a cooler December with no snow (like December 2022). 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

What a miserable person.  Sad.

 

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Pingers here, too!

I guess this is another way of saying Go Birds!

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. A couple of my best months of December (2007 and 2008), which I incorporated into the Outlook as analogs, didn't get going until the second week.

The first week of December in 2007 was the best of that month, in regards to cold and snow. The snowstorm on the 5th was the best event until February 22nd. Although, the previous month (November) was colder than average.

2008 got going in the 2nd half of November, with a snowstorm on November 20. Again, the previous month (October) was colder than average. Weird thing about this winter is that the cold and snow didn't really align. October-January was the cold part, but the big storm was on March 1-2 (that was the beginning of about 6-7 years of great storms).

With the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022, the coastal areas haven't really had great snow since the mid-2010s el nino. Here is Atlantic City:

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

05-06 and 20-21 are la nina years that had a colder/snowier February than January.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Whether or not you use ONI or RONI, if you ignore what went on in Nino 1+2 last winter, then you're totally missing the picture. Last winter wasn't going to behave like a traditional la nina, or even a cold-neutral, with that warm eastern basin.

12 hours ago, George001 said:

I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10. 

1949-51 la nina -> 1951-52 moderate el nino (yes, also continued in 1952-54)

1954-57 la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino (yes, also continued in 1958-59)

1970-72 la nina -> 1972-73 super el nino (yes)

1974-76 la nina -> 1976-77 & 1977-78 moderate el nino (yes)

1983-85 la nina -> 1986-88 strong el nino (yes)

1988-90 la nina -> 1991-92 strong el nino (yes)

1998-2001 la nina -> 2002-03 moderate el nino (yes)

2007-09 la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (yes)

2010-12 la nina - no el nino in 2012-13 or 2013-14 (though we did get a super el nino in 2015-16)

2016-18 la nina -> 2018-19 weak el nino (no)

2020-23 la nina -> 2023-24 strong el nino (yes)

So, within 2 years of a multi-year cold ENSO (at least one year la nina), we have:

1 no el nino (and this one eventually produced a strong el nino)

1 weak el nino

3 moderate el nino

5 strong el nino

1 super el nino

Plus, 4 of these events were multi-year el ninos (1951-54, 1957-59, 1976-78, and 1986-88).