PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

What a miserable person.  Sad.

 

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Pingers here, too!

I guess this is another way of saying Go Birds!

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. A couple of my best months of December (2007 and 2008), which I incorporated into the Outlook as analogs, didn't get going until the second week.

The first week of December in 2007 was the best of that month, in regards to cold and snow. The snowstorm on the 5th was the best event until February 22nd. Although, the previous month (November) was colder than average.

2008 got going in the 2nd half of November, with a snowstorm on November 20. Again, the previous month (October) was colder than average. Weird thing about this winter is that the cold and snow didn't really align. October-January was the cold part, but the big storm was on March 1-2 (that was the beginning of about 6-7 years of great storms).

With the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022, the coastal areas haven't really had great snow since the mid-2010s el nino. Here is Atlantic City:

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

05-06 and 20-21 are la nina years that had a colder/snowier February than January.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Whether or not you use ONI or RONI, if you ignore what went on in Nino 1+2 last winter, then you're totally missing the picture. Last winter wasn't going to behave like a traditional la nina, or even a cold-neutral, with that warm eastern basin.

12 hours ago, George001 said:

I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10. 

1949-51 la nina -> 1951-52 moderate el nino (yes, also continued in 1952-54)

1954-57 la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino (yes, also continued in 1958-59)

1970-72 la nina -> 1972-73 super el nino (yes)

1974-76 la nina -> 1976-77 & 1977-78 moderate el nino (yes)

1983-85 la nina -> 1986-88 strong el nino (yes)

1988-90 la nina -> 1991-92 strong el nino (yes)

1998-2001 la nina -> 2002-03 moderate el nino (yes)

2007-09 la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (yes)

2010-12 la nina - no el nino in 2012-13 or 2013-14 (though we did get a super el nino in 2015-16)

2016-18 la nina -> 2018-19 weak el nino (no)

2020-23 la nina -> 2023-24 strong el nino (yes)

So, within 2 years of a multi-year cold ENSO (at least one year la nina), we have:

1 no el nino (and this one eventually produced a strong el nino)

1 weak el nino

3 moderate el nino

5 strong el nino

1 super el nino

Plus, 4 of these events were multi-year el ninos (1951-54, 1957-59, 1976-78, and 1986-88).

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely.  That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod 

4 of the last 5 actually, as 09-10 was another strong el nino (along with 15-16 and 23-24).

Very possible we could have a repeat of 86-89 (remember this came quickly after the 82-83 el nino), with the double el nino in 26-28, then transition to a strong la nina in 28-29. We're overdue for a strong la nina as well. We haven't had one since 10-11, which is the longest stretch without a strong la nina since 55-56 to 73-74. If we don't have a la nina by 28-29, we would have our longest stretch without a strong la nina since 1916-17 to 1955-56.

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes. 

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters.

But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here. 

12/19/2009 to 2/10/2010 is the only one that really rivals 10-11. I highly doubt we're ever going to have a stretch with so much snow in very little time like those two winters. If we're going to have a high snow season, it will be more sustained throughout the season, like 2013-14 or 2014-15.

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

And don't forget about Nino 1+2. That was in el nino mode all winter long.

Atlanta once recorded a -41.4 temperature departure in November 1950:

Anyone know where NOAA moved their ENSO ONI product?

All I know is that the ASO value is -0.5 from this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

83 is also a +PDO, and so was 95. They can be thrown out.

1955, 1973, and 2010 were strong la ninas. They can be thrown out as well.

1950 and 2000 are the only analogs that make sense on that list.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row.

The 2003-05 period is going to be nearly impossible to replicate, in terms of ACE. We had the one-year ACE (2005), two-year ACE (2004-05), and 3-year ACE (2003-05) records set. Also, most Cat 5 storms in one year (2005) and 5 years (2003-07), and until it was tied these last few years, the 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year Cat 5 records. (The 5-year record can be tied next year with one, and broken with 2.)

I'd even argue that the record stretch began in 1998, maybe even 1995. We had six 175+ ACE seasons in 11 years from 1995-2005. In the 20 years since, we've only had 2 (2017 and 2020).

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months. 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

18 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

The only "fast starts to winter, then died in January" were 89-90 and 07-08.

Technically, you could argue 05-06 and 20-21, but those had a blockbuster return in February.

ASO 2025 RONI: -0.78

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

14-15 had a cold November, though. It was more like December was the outlier warm month.

I think that had to be 90-91. That was a wall-to-wall warm winter, which continued into spring and summer. Almost like a 11-12 redux.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1939 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

Should be February 22, 1929.

Also, if NYC doesn't get a 10-inch snowstorm, it will be the 9th out of 10 seasons without a 10-inch snowstorm (only 2020-21 had a snowstorm >10 inches). I think it will be the first time that NYC hasn't had a 10-inch snowstorm 5 years in a row, breaking a tie with 2016-17 to 2019-20.

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.