PhiEaglesfan712

I think everyone in here would be up for a moderate el nino, with a neutral or +PDO.

Just now, roardog said:

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

59 minutes ago, roardog said:

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo.

However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.

December 2025 PDO: -1.01

Record 72nd straight month (and completes 6 straight years) of negative PDO values:

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.67 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.32 -2.37 -1.54 -1.01

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Define "well above average"....if you mean like +5F, I don't think you're getting that anytime soon.

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19:

15-16 - November, December, March

16-17 - January, February

17-18 - February

18-19 - None

19-20 - January, February, March

20-21 - November

21-22 - December

22-23 - January, February

23-24 - December, March

24-25 - November, March

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.

Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. But Jan as a whole may not end up cold if the -PNA returns midmonth. If not, that breaks the cold streak.

We've been in a cold streak for the most part since August. We are well overdue for a well warmer than average month.

I'm not really mad about last night's loss. I'd much rather the loss yesterday than next week. If the Eagles had won last night and lost next week, it would have been all for nothing. At least if the Eagles win next week, then everything is forgiven.

It's not like we had a perfect home season to defend. (I'm still a bit annoyed that we lost the last game of the 2017 season to the Cowboys before winning Super Bowl LII, but it's been forgiven.) Besides, we kept the 11-win regular season streak alive, and have a chance to tie 2000-04 next year.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MEI is back....

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

-1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated: 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A large portion of the West had their warmest December on record. But none of the areas in the East that were cold approached their coldest December on record. This has been a common theme in recent years with the warm departures being more impressive than the cold departures on a month to month basis. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 

 

10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026

Everybody can

 

Climatologist49

 

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The month-to-date temperature departure from normal for the Contiguous U.S. is +3.9F. If this is how the month ends, December 2025 would finish as the 4th warmest December on record (1895-present). 4 of the top 5 would include 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's as if something has changed.

11:47 AM · Dec 29, 2025

Everybody can

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

57 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

those never work out. we would need a phase but those never worked out in my experience 

Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

12 hours ago, RedSky said:

Forgot about 2000 that was -9.7F

And December 2005 with 14"

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As noted in the general ENSO 2025-2026 thread, the forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. 

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, that storm is king for me of sheer intensity and thunder snow that morning. 

The January 26-27, 2011 snowstorm compares. That was an overnight snow, but I remember the intense thunder snow keeping me awake.

13 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Ouch, March 29, 2025 wins the game!

That was the best weather day of the year. I'm sure everyone enjoyed it, well except MJO812. Bring on 80s and sunny any day over the slop we got this weekend.

14 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Sometimes guidance can correctly latch onto big cold blasts or warmups far in the distance. I remember how well the January 2019 cold blast and early February 2019 cold blast was forecast. Got down to near 0 here in NYC. Down near -30 in Chicago. Very impressive cold blasts that winter 

That was the last real cold blast in the Eastern US. That was also the only winter in the last decade (since 2015-16) that didn't have a uber warm (+5.0 temperature departure) month in the November-March period.

If we don't get a torch month in January, February, or March, we would really be bucking a trend.

48 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I also can't get out was counting on the ice driveway on a steep hill melting. May be the first time iced in since 1994

I was iced last January, as well as in late February/early March 2015.

11 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

In February 1983, we still had a few inches of icy snow left from a moderate snowfall the week before the blizzard.  Of course the melt out following the blizzard was epic.  Excellent lasting snowpack in both 2014 and 2015. Even 2001 was decent.

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Can you imagine what a heating bill would look like these days with a mean monthly temp of 25?   Have to believe it would cause hardship for many.

We don't even need to go back that far to get a mean monthly temp of 25. That happened in February 2015, part of a 3-month period (January-March 2015) that was the coldest post-1980.

3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Thank god that’s over. Just a brutal storm to track and experience. My least favorite in recent memory.

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

21 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Thanks for posting data like this. 25 mean temp in 1876 is wild. 

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March. 

35 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

13-14 definitely was a good December too iirc. No biggies but several nickle and dimes.

Great wall-to-wall winter, actually. Technically, 17-18 and 20-21 also had above average December snowfall.

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.