PhiEaglesfan712

11 years ago:

February 2026 PDO is -1.01

This is the 74th straight month with a -PDO value.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is going to suck.

Not really, recently all of our cold/snowy winters seem to be consecutive: 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05; 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11; and 2013-14, 2014-15.

10 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You need to have quite a few things come together for a solid March snow. Not saying it can't happen, but more elements need to be in place. 

I remember a few solid April snows one not too long ago. 

Yeah, you need a lot of cold air in place. In the years when we had big snowstorms post-March 15 (1956, 1958, 2018, etc.) there were many days with below average temperatures (mostly in the 40s and even 30s, as well as at least one snow event) leading up to it:

We just don't have that coming up this year. We have temps forecasted in the 60s and 70s. I have a feeling anyone holding out hope for more snow is going to end up disappointed.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you related to snowman19? You have been wrong on everything this winter. 

No, but anyone with common sense knows that there won't be 2 snow events post-March 10. That's only happened once ever (in 2018), and temperatures had cooled long before that. We won't get 2 snow events after this warmup.

Besides, I haven't been wrong on everything this winter. I did say December would be below average temperaturewise, and I called this March warmup at least a month in advance.

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

All the roll-forward stuff from the Winter was suggesting March would be near normal to below in the eastern 1/3 of the US.. seems to be beating the Euro weeklies in the long range

With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this:

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai has 2 snow events in this range

We all know that isn't going to happen. The sun angle is too high and the ground/temps are too warm. Any precip that falls from now until October will be rain.

Cold is not returning any time soon:

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The problem is the PV is on our side of the world so it wouldn't take much for cold air to seep south. 

March is very fickle. We could touch 80+ and see snow a week later. We actually did that in 2018 when Feb saw 80 and then we know what happened next. 

I'm not saying we're getting snowstorms but the window hasn't completely closed. 

The difference is that in 2018, as well as in 2017, we had record warm Februarys. It shouldn't be surprising that things corrected, and we got snowy Marches those years.

That's nothing like what we have this year. We had a cold and snowy February (and winter overall), like 2010. Things corrected in the opposite direction, and we got a warm March and the below average temperatures never came back (until the following winter). I feel like we closer to this scenario than 2017 and 2018.

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Adult son's birthday is 3/25. I can remember AT LEAST 2 years since 2012 it snowed on his Bday!

It was 2013 and 2014.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man 2012 is close to knocking on our door. Too bad. 

I'm thinking more like 2010. 2012 came off a wall-to-wall warm and snowless winter. 2010 came off a more cold and snowy winter, but flipped warm once the calendar flipped to March, and never really looked back.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

So in this much warmer world it was a challenge for places to have an all-time winter for both snow and cold. There was definitely a colder global temperature sweet spot from 1993-1994 to 2014-2015. This allowed for the all-time snowiest winter in PA during 1993-1994, our area in 1995-1996, DC to Philly in 2009-2010, Detroit and the Great Lakes in 2013-2014, and Boston in 2014-2015. None of these benchmarks were able to be approached this winter with the smaller footprint of the cold.

The colder global temperature sweet spot ended with the 1997-98 el nino. Temperatures jumped with that super el nino, and have never went back to the pre-1997 baseline. Pinatubo was most likely the reason for the colder global temperature sweet spot.

16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey @stormtracker could we fix the pinning in this sub? The last El Niño from like 3 winters ago is somehow still pinned, lol

Yeah, we should pin the 2026-27 el nino thread, and unpin the 2023-24 el nino.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a lock

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

17 years ago, the Nor'easter that kicked off the great 7-9 year stretch of storms: 

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What’s the target date/dates for the arctic cold and east coast snowstorm pattern to start up again? 

For this year, it's finished. The sun angle is going to prevent us from getting arctic cold. As for the next east coast snowstorm pattern, your guess is as good as mine. I can guarantee you, though, that there probably won't be one until at least November.

12 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I bet you never get to say after a snowfall that your grass is covered.

If true, that lawn is a deciduous forest by now. 1998 was 28 years ago.

April 1983 takes the cake when it comes to hard freezes:

It snowed in places like Philly and NYC during the 19th and 20th.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Highly unlikely SNE does a sub 32 high in April. 

I don't think it happens this year, but it does happen every once in a while. I believe they've gone as late as mid-May (in 2023, and that was after a very warm winter).

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Denver is on track for its second warmest winter on record.

2014-15 is still the record holder, correct?

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Some things we do know…no way we warm up to 60’s and 70’s…and stay there…not in mid and late March and April. Wish we did..but we don’t. That we know.  (Exception being 2012…which is as rare as a 1995-1996 and a 2014-2015 winter). 

2014-2015 was followed by a record warm May (or at least close to it). One of the most remarkable pattern turnarounds in spring, right along with 2010.

A volcanic eruption is not necessary for a great winter. However, one certainly helps. Just look at 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96, following Pinatubo. In fact, they are still 3 of the Top 4 snowiest winters in State College, PA:

1    1993-1994    109.3    0
2    1995-1996    99.0    0
3    1977-1978    98.2    0
4    1992-1993    92.5    0

However, we have had great stretches of winters (2002-03 to 2004-05, 2008-09 to 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15) even without a volcanic eruption. If we can have another great winter in 2026-27, we could add another great stretch of winters.

My gut tells me a cold shot on Monday, but no snow. If there is a precip event, it will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and will be primarily rain. After that will be a huge warm up.