PhiEaglesfan712
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Posts posted by PhiEaglesfan712
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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:
NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.
If 7/15/1995 isn't on this list, I refuse to believe it's true. That was a very anomolous event. That is by far the highest dew point/heat index in most of the surrounding area.
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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:
I guess this will be the longest duration heat wave of the summer for many
At least consistent 80+. We won't hit the high temperatures of May-July, but we're not going to be in the 70s (or even lower) in a matter of a few days after the heat is over.
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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
At the same time though it's nothing like 1999 or 2002 this drought has been much more localized. In 1999 for example there was a water emergency in the Poconos. There are water restrictions this year down in the valley cities but it's only because there has been too much rain which has caused sediments to run off into the reservoirs. Nothing for me to worry about because all my water comes from a well.
I would use 1971-2000 annual rainfall totals to calculate averages because rainfall became excessive after that Chris.
Now imagine how bad that drought would have been if Floyd didn't happen. 1998-2002 would have been a historic drought.
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2 hours ago, GaWx said:
I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:
He originally said this way back in April:To be fair, our last volcanic winter (post-Pinatubo) wasn't that severe. The period between 1991-96 was near normal temperaturewise, maybe a bit below normal. Once the 1997-98 el nino happened, things turned warmer permanently.
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53 minutes ago, TriPol said:
Seems like you got a good grasp on what the future holds! Can you tell me tonight's lottery numbers? Powerball is at $786 million.
All you have to do is look at the previous robust el ninos. There are only really 2 scenarios that make sense here:
1. carry over el nino, like 1987
2. backlash la nina, like 1972 and 1998.
If the el nino wasn't going to be outlier strength, I would say 2 was a forgone conclusion. But the el nino might be so strong, the carry over solution cannot be ruled out.
I don't know which scenario is going to happen, but it should become obvious by late spring/early summer. For example, by May/June 2010, anyone could see it was pretty clear that a strong la nina was forming.
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On 8/4/2026 at 6:17 AM, LibertyBell said:
1999 and 2002 stand out clearly in my mind, 1999 even moreso than 2002 because of how it ended with Hurricane Floyd and massive flooding. Both of those droughts were far more expansive.
I have always believed that if not for Hurricane Floyd, we would have likely had a near 5-year continuous drought. The 2002 drought, of course, ended with the severe snowy winter of 2002-03.
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42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).
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MJJ 2026 ONI (NOAA): +1.4
MJJ 2026 RONI: +1.0
AMJ 2026 ONI (Eric Webb): +1.0 [NOAA's value came at +0.9]
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19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market.
This feels like going up on a strong bull market. It feels like we're setting new records every day.
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:
I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at.
lol, they must have changed it. The original value there was -2.03 a few hours earlier. I guess they put the WCS value. But now we know there is about a .75 difference between the NOAA and WCS in July.
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July 2026 PDO: -2.03
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I think somewhere close to neutral PDO is the best scenario for a robust el nino. Strong/super el ninos have busted when the PDO was highly negative or highly positive. A near neutral PDO is the sweet spot (see 1965-66 and 2009-10).
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7 hours ago, Prue11 said:
And you’ll sit in endless traffic on a Sunday. Stay home
Yeah, it's better to go on Saturday. I did this the first Saturday of October in 2024, just before the Bridgehampton K-Mart closed, and the traffic wasn't that bad. Then, took the ferry to New London.
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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
No...it's not. It will be above average.
I'd say favored, but not a guarantee. There have been cold/snowy winters in robust el ninos. 2009-10 finishing as the coldest winter CONUS so far in the 21st century is one example. Also, 1957-58 was a historically cold and snowy winter in many places in the Eastern US.
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29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
Many forecasts are for warmth but they are just going by enso. Many other factors to consider.
Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.
It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.
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1 hour ago, Psychguy said:
“Kissed” 90 (or maybe a peck on the cheek) at PHL today… 27th time this summer thus far. Last summer we were at 30 already, I believe.
But the summer just pretty much died after this point last year.
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53 minutes ago, GaWx said:
CFS is at warmest yet!
Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!
OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!
Yeah, that plunge looks like 1973, 1988, 1998, 2010 territory. All of those years resulted in a backlash, strong la nina.
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On 7/31/2026 at 7:16 AM, [email protected] said:
50/50 chance, more 90 degree days for Central Park the rest of this summer. It seems that 2004/2009 has arrived.
More like 2011 and 2013. Those were at least warm in the beginning before going absolutely cold in late July/early August.
2004 and 2009 were cold almost all the way throughout.
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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
July 2026 finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.4°, which was 1.1° below normal (0.1° below the 1981-2010 baseline).
Almost like June, very warm first half of the month, not so much the 2nd half. I bet if you put the first half of June with the first half of July, it would be close to a record warm month, and if you put the 2nd half of June with the 2nd half of July, it would probably be a Top 10 coldest month.
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4 hours ago, EasternLI said:
Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east.
Interesting to note that each of these events were immediately followed by a strong la nina (1998-2000 and 88-89).
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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east.
People forget that our coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century happened during a strong el nino.
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3 hours ago, George001 said:
Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east.
I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong.
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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
Typical convective nature of these summer events. Some areas that have gotten hit could make a run at 15-18 inches of rain this month
Almost like August/September 1999, which climaxed with Hurricane Floyd. It put paused to a long running drought. If not for that, knowing what came after, we would have had a near 5-year continuous drought.
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2 hours ago, Psychguy said:
Today was "exactly normal" in Philadelphia... high 88 and a low of 70. How often does that actually happen? Normal high and low hit on the dot, so to speak.
It probably happens a lot more often. All I know is that there was no weathergami today.
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.
I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.