PhiEaglesfan712

6 hours ago, NorthWestNJ said:

I thought strong Nino summers generally have a cool second half and a more normal first half. Could be wrong though.

Not really. 2009 was cold throughout, with the exception of one week in August. 2015 was warm from July-September. 2023 was cold in June, but very warm in July and September.

I will go with colder than 94-95, but warmer than 09-10, for this upcoming winter. Depends on the PDO, though. If it stays deeply negative, it will end up closer to 94-95, but if it can go towards neutral, then it will end up closer to 09-10.

2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Kinda off topic but I saw Cecily Tynan post she has big personal news to announce at 6PM. Wonder if she is going to ABC News? 

I think she's retiring.

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

 

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Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

I thought July 2012 broke the record for the warmest month. Or is that still in verification stage?

Barring a major volcanic eruption, like we had with Pinatubo in 1991, I'm almost certain next summer in most of the Eastern US is going to be record breaking hot. We may not see the high temps of 2011 or earlier this month, but the heat will be more consistent throughout like in 2010 and 2016 (both post-el nino summers).

37 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

It actually happened in 2013:

15 years ago saw one of the most widespread heatwaves for this area. Newark set an all-time record of 108: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/july-22-2011-a-day-of-records.html

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.

—————————
Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

Yeah, the connection has been spotty this morning.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest.

I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

Yes, it was Feb 2015, but if something like that happened now, someone will be quick to point out that +10 temp departure in Las Vegas or somewhere out West.

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?

Yes, I'm pretty sure the August spike was 2023, and likely the September spike as well. I remember there being an anomolous heatwave in South America in August 2023, and another one the following month.

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far.  Which is lucky.

Last year was a frontloaded warm summer, with the heat wave in late June and the warmth lasting all through July. The summer pretty much ended after July 31.

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July.  EWR at 6 currently

 

Year	July 90° Days	August 90° Days	Difference
2021	10	13	+3
2018	9	14	+5
2015	11	13	+2

 

 

Year	June	July	August
2021	13	10	13

Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.

So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.

I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/

Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East

Verification in (C)

94-95 was really skewed by February. The rest of that winter (November-January and March) absolutely torched in the Eastern US and was actually cool in the West. I'd say 14-15 was the best match for 25-26.

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

8 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

This was a textbook frontloaded warm/backloaded cold winter. If we continued this into spring, I believe April 1983 was the coldest April on record CONUS. That one had a major freeze/snow event in the Eastern half of the country (impacting the midwest on the 13th-16th, and North Carolina northward on the 19th-22nd).

4 minutes ago, BBasile said:

You sure it's not your diet?

I'd stay away from lettuce, at least until the drought is over.

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

 

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

Perfect weather for Eagles football

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

MCS/Derecho chances on the rise for this weekend in the northwest flow around the heat dome- winds in those things can reach 100 mph ...........last one to hit central NJ was Labor Day 1998

I thought we had one in late June 2012, just ahead of the early July 2012 heatwave.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

I feel like if the PDO doesn't reverse, especially with how big of an el nino we are expected to have, we are pretty much in a permanent -PDO. We haven't had a +PDO winter now since 2015-16, which was more than a decade ago, and is unprecedented. Even in previous predominant -PDO periods, we got a +PDO in there somewhere.

Also, if we don't reach 175 ACE this year, it would be sixth straight year that we don't reach the threshold. Here is a list of longest periods with no hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons:

1. 1962-1994 (33 seasons)

2. 1894-1925 (32 seasons)

3. 1934-1949 (16 seasons)

4. 2006-2016 (11 seasons)

5. 1927-1932 (6 seasons) [2026 would tie this streak, which began in 2021]

The thirteen hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons are: 1893 1926 1933 1950 1955 1961 1995 1998 2003 2004 2005 2017 2020

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

As I said, I'm going to wait until the fall before taking this seriously. If the strong winter signal is still there in September/October, then you know it's going to be a cold and snowy winter. 2009-10 was the last time a strong winter signal held in the fall during a developing strong el nino. Contrast that to 2015-16 and 2023-24, when there was no strong winter signal in the fall months.

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).

2 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

Very low, less than 0.001%. Our strongest el ninos (namely 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) ended up between 2.5-3C. 5C is way off the charts.

24 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

How do we know that a 5.0 would act differently than a 2.5?.. more flooding in California?..All Super el nino's have done is give warm weather through most of the country for the winter and more rains in the southwest. Somehow that doesn't seem like a big deal, or maybe I'm missing something. This has really been hyped by social media.

All I know is that if we get a 5.0 and the PDO stays negative, then we're likely in a permanent -PDO.