PhiEaglesfan712

It all comes down to the blocking pattern. Not all strong el ninos are duds. If we get a blocking pattern like 2009-10, then we may just get a very good winter. However, if we get a blocking pattern (or lack thereof) like 2015-16 or 2023-24, then we're more than likely going to get a torch.

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)? 

2.56 in October 1997

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

It was a record late freeze in many areas

No, there have been freezes in May before. At PHL, the record is May 11, 1966. Much of this area had a freeze on May 9, 2020.

Even as far south as North Carolina, there was a freeze on April 19-22, 1983 (this was also the latest snow in our area): 

Don't try to tell me that a few weeks ago was a 'record latest freeze'. There have been freezes later than that. I just showed 1966, 1983, and 2020 (there are probably more examples).

25 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Sunny 60s here with the trout lilies beginning to bloom.

Snow total for 25-26 (barring something very unusual) is 6.8".  That's 1.8" BN, currently the closest to my average in 28 snow seasons, with only 2012-13 (90.4", 2.0" AN) being close.

I'm going to assume you meant 86.8

PHL Summers since 2010

Below 1981-2010 average (75.9)

2014 (75.7)

2023 (75.8, although JAS averaged 76.1, which is above the 1981-2010 average)

Above 1981-2010 average, but below 1991-2020 average (76.7)

2013 (76.6)

2017 (76.4)

Currently, the 2001-present average is 77.2, which would put 2018 (76.9) below it. Depending on how warm the summers of 2026-2030 are, last summer (77.4) could end up below the 2001-2030 average.

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

15-16 actually peaked at 1.97 in August:

2015    8     0.99      1.43       1.97
2015    9     1.04      1.48       1.80
2015   10     1.04      1.51       1.91

7 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

2023 - Yes 

2015 - Warm summer, warm winter

2009 - Cool summer, cool winter

1997 - Yes

1991 - Warm summer, warm winter

1986 - Cool summer, cool winter (1987 - Warm summer, cool winter)

1982 - Yes

1972 - Yes

1965 - Cool summer, cool winter

1957 - Cool summer, cool winter

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

4 out of the Top 8 happened in developing strong el nino years.

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Obligatory "if only this was winter". 

Thing is, no one can say that after the winter we had. There was plenty of cold and snow to go around this past December, January, and February. 

I really love the Makai Lemon pick. I believe we got the best receiver in the NFL Draft. Lemon should have went ahead of Jordyn Tyson.

53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't the 18-19 Niño like really weak sauce, though?

Yes, it was pretty much a disjointed el nino, which just lingered around in the weak el nino/warm neutral phase until late 2019/early 2020, before eventually going into a solid la nina (which lasted until early 2023) and -PDO (which is still ongoing).

As I pointed out earlier in the New England thread, 2026 is a polar opposite of 2020 (as we are exiting a weak la nina/cold neutral phase and heading towards a strong to super el nino, and maybe transitioning to a +PDO):

14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Wonder if this will be like 2020 where things flip to a torch around Memorial Day? Then again I lived out in Milwaukee at the time so I'm not sure how it evolved here but I assume it was similar.

Probably not. This year is probably the polar of 2020. That year, we had an ending weak +ENSO that transitioned into a solid la nina, and a developing -PDO. This year, we have an ending weak -ENSO that looks like it's transitioning to a strong, if not super, el nino, and an ending -PDO/developing +PDO.

Plus, 2019-20 was a very warm and virtually snowless winter that turned cold in April into May, while this winter was cold and snowy, that turned warm in March, and flipped to a torch around Daylight Saving Time.

Happy Draft Day!

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Patriots take at 31?

Does AJ Brown get traded?

Draft Day today! Temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow.

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Eagles take at 23?

Does AJ Brown get traded?

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

25F for the morning low

Sleet in Philly, cold weekend coming cold wave after cold wave lined up

GFS has highs in the 40's to only near 50 for much of the first week of May, normal high for May 1st is what near 70F

What is going on

 

 

March and April have been really warm. Like over +5 to +6 temperature departure at PHL. It was bound to revert to the mean. I don't think it's going to be that cold, but May is going to be much closer to average temperaturewise, and probably more wet than March and April.

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

any snow possible  ?

No, the ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too high now. Plus, Bobby Martrich's last Weather Weeklies was almost 2 months ago: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

December 2023 wasn't in the 30s most days. It rained a lot, but it was a really warm December. It was either the 2nd or 3rd warmest December (along with 2021), both behind 2015.

I think it was December 2022 that was in the 30s most days but hostile for snow, although December 2024 could fit that profile as well.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was a record breaking April temperature drop spanning around 5 days. These charts are just for hourly reports and miss highs or lows recorded between hours. Spots that radiate well dropped more than 60°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=tmpf&hours=111&month=apr&dir=cool&how=exact&syear=1900&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

This comes after we broke the one-day record for biggest temperature drop last month. Yep, this isn't normal. I've seen temperature swings, but not this many in such short order like we have this spring. I hope this doesn't continue. I'll even take consistent 50 or 60 degree days over this. No one wants 100-degree heat to be followed by 50-degree temps in such short order in June or July.

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah feels like seasons won’t change 

Something weird is going on this year. I have never seen so many wild temperature swings like this. I hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one afternoon in June or July, then be near 50 degrees at the same time the next day or a few days later.

17 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

heavy sleet in NW Philly (:

The ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too high, for that. Keep in mind, the latest snowstorm in Philadelphia was on April 19-20, in 1983. If there was heavy sleet right now (which there isn't), it would be historic.

I mean, snowflakes flew on May 9, 2020 and a freeze occurred on May 18, 2023 in some spots. And those were following very warm and nearly snowless winters.