PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Windy and nippy out there. Birds better use a shitload of Barkley today..... 

 

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

How much snow for EWR on Tuesday?

40 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I’m guessing you thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year too? It was seriously a comedy of errors and typically nfl refball on Sunday. Holy overreaction. The Bears suck, they get killed by every good team they face and it’ll be the same here. They’ll be lucky to score 14 unless the refs literally give it to them with bullshit penalties like they did for Dallas on two of their drives Sunday. Eagles still should have won that game if the league wasn’t beholden to the books even with that comedy of errors that’s the funniest thing. League gets worse and worse every year with “coincidental awful officiating that just so happens to severely benefit the team being blown out”. 

No, I wasn't one who thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year. Heck, I didn't even lose faith after the Giants game earlier this year. I'd much rather have the losses to Bucs last year and the Giants game earlier this year. At least I can understand that we didn't have it that day. Crap like that happens sometimes.

But after this loss to the Cowboys, I've completely lost faith in this team. (The last time I lost total faith in the Eagles was the loss to the Seahawks on that Monday Night in 2023, and I couldn't have been more correct.) You can't lose a game up 21-0, especially when you have a running back as great as Saquon Barkley. The Eagles never blew a 21-0 lead before, not even during the great collapse of 2023.

I thought holding onto a 21-0 lead was not asking too much, but if they can't do that, then I need to lower my expectations for this team. The Eagles might beat the Raiders and split with the Commanders to get to 10 wins (and that may still be enough to win the NFC East), but this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs.

In short, this Eagles team is soft and undisciplined. Don't expect that to magically change on Friday. The Bears are a tougher team, and will beat us.

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Models are looking somewhat interesting for next week. GFS/Euro both give us a few inches of snow from a SWFE next Tuesday.

Now that drought guy is doubting it, I'm optimistic about this storm happening. 

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A big part of the problem nowadays is flooding the general public with unrealistic expectations, then when it fails, they lose all trust in the “weathermen”. We have pro mets (no not on here) blindly hyping “MJO phase 8!!!”, speaking in declaratives without any context like it’s always a guaranteed magical light switch and using/hyping extreme analogs like December, 1983, December 1989 and December, 2010, telling people that it’s going to be a redux. When the public sees that and it ends up failing, they lose trust in the profession 

December 2010 is the only one that's reasonable. At least that happened in the newer climate. (It's not a good analog, but due to other things... like near solar min and strong la nina, features we don't have this year. Maybe it could work if we have a strong la nina in place in December 2028, when we're closer to a solar min.)

December 1983 is an older, colder climate. Not likely to happen unless we have a Pinatubo event. (83-84 actually would have been a very good analog for 95-96.)

December 1989, well, that was a once-in-a-lifetime event. A coldest December on record, followed by an early turn to spring (and never looking back) is almost certainly never going to happen again.

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway.  I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.  

Funny, that year behaved the opposite of a nino (due to Pinatubo). Normally, you'd get the cool summer in the East preceding the el nino and the warm summer in the East following the el nino. Instead, the summer of 91 was a record warm summer in the East, and the summer of 92 was the cold summer in the East.

Of course, Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling, which led the snowier winters of 92-93, 93-94, and maybe even 95-96.

I hate to say it, but I feel the Eagles are on the verge of a 2023-type collapse. This team is way too soft to even hold on to a 21-0 lead. The offense is broken, and the defense can only hold up for so long. (In fact, I can see the defense starting to crack.)

The Eagles are going to lose on Friday, and will probably end with a 9-8 or 10-7 record. That may still be good enough to win the NFC East, but we will likely lose to a team like Seattle in the Wild Card round.

18 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal. 

2020-21 is the only winter in NYC that even surpassed the 20-inch mark since 2018-19:

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dec 2021 was one of the strongest -PNA's.. what I see on models right now is a "moderate -PNA event" in early Dec. I also don't know that it sustains beyond like a week. We'll see. If it lasts into mid-December that would be a little different from what we have seen this year (where -PNA's last 7-10 days then go away). 
 

December 2021 was a very warm December in the Eastern US (I think only 2015 was warmer). If we're not going to get any snow in December, then I hope it's a torch. At least it can come back to average at some point in the winter (like January 2022). The worst possible outcome is a cooler December with no snow (like December 2022). 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

What a miserable person.  Sad.

 

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Pingers here, too!

I guess this is another way of saying Go Birds!

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. A couple of my best months of December (2007 and 2008), which I incorporated into the Outlook as analogs, didn't get going until the second week.

The first week of December in 2007 was the best of that month, in regards to cold and snow. The snowstorm on the 5th was the best event until February 22nd. Although, the previous month (November) was colder than average.

2008 got going in the 2nd half of November, with a snowstorm on November 20. Again, the previous month (October) was colder than average. Weird thing about this winter is that the cold and snow didn't really align. October-January was the cold part, but the big storm was on March 1-2 (that was the beginning of about 6-7 years of great storms).

With the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022, the coastal areas haven't really had great snow since the mid-2010s el nino. Here is Atlantic City:

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

05-06 and 20-21 are la nina years that had a colder/snowier February than January.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Whether or not you use ONI or RONI, if you ignore what went on in Nino 1+2 last winter, then you're totally missing the picture. Last winter wasn't going to behave like a traditional la nina, or even a cold-neutral, with that warm eastern basin.

12 hours ago, George001 said:

I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10. 

1949-51 la nina -> 1951-52 moderate el nino (yes, also continued in 1952-54)

1954-57 la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino (yes, also continued in 1958-59)

1970-72 la nina -> 1972-73 super el nino (yes)

1974-76 la nina -> 1976-77 & 1977-78 moderate el nino (yes)

1983-85 la nina -> 1986-88 strong el nino (yes)

1988-90 la nina -> 1991-92 strong el nino (yes)

1998-2001 la nina -> 2002-03 moderate el nino (yes)

2007-09 la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (yes)

2010-12 la nina - no el nino in 2012-13 or 2013-14 (though we did get a super el nino in 2015-16)

2016-18 la nina -> 2018-19 weak el nino (no)

2020-23 la nina -> 2023-24 strong el nino (yes)

So, within 2 years of a multi-year cold ENSO (at least one year la nina), we have:

1 no el nino (and this one eventually produced a strong el nino)

1 weak el nino

3 moderate el nino

5 strong el nino

1 super el nino

Plus, 4 of these events were multi-year el ninos (1951-54, 1957-59, 1976-78, and 1986-88).

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely.  That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod 

4 of the last 5 actually, as 09-10 was another strong el nino (along with 15-16 and 23-24).

Very possible we could have a repeat of 86-89 (remember this came quickly after the 82-83 el nino), with the double el nino in 26-28, then transition to a strong la nina in 28-29. We're overdue for a strong la nina as well. We haven't had one since 10-11, which is the longest stretch without a strong la nina since 55-56 to 73-74. If we don't have a la nina by 28-29, we would have our longest stretch without a strong la nina since 1916-17 to 1955-56.

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes. 

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters.

But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here. 

12/19/2009 to 2/10/2010 is the only one that really rivals 10-11. I highly doubt we're ever going to have a stretch with so much snow in very little time like those two winters. If we're going to have a high snow season, it will be more sustained throughout the season, like 2013-14 or 2014-15.

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

And don't forget about Nino 1+2. That was in el nino mode all winter long.

Atlanta once recorded a -41.4 temperature departure in November 1950: