PhiEaglesfan712

Just now, wasnow215 said:

So all the weather models are wrong? 12 hours out? You're the type of guy that will come back on here tomorrow and say you were wrong if it does snow tho right?

Sometimes, you have to use common sense and not rely on the models. How many times have you seen snow immediately following 80 degree days? I can't think of any.

If I happen to be wrong, I will personally come back here and apologize to you all. However, I know it's not going to happen, so I'm done posting on this thread because it's really unnecessary. Good night to everyone. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

 

ignore him he is just trying to create chaos here 

No, I'm not the one creating chaos. You're the ones doing it by causing unnecessary panic by saying there's going to be a snowstorm, when you all know it isn't going to happen. When was the last time you saw snow immediately after 80 degree days? Because I can't think of one of the top of my head. And I'm not young, I was born in 1988 and remember the 1993 snowstorm.

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

It took me 2 minutes to backread and find a post that you should've been five-posted for.

Don't come around here talking about dwindling snow prospects when you're batting .150 at a time when it is BY FAR THE EASIEST to predict warm snowless winters and be right. Nobody's gonna call you an oracle when you're saying snow won't stick the day after it hits 85 degrees. 

It's more reasonable than those posting snow maps where DC and Virginia get 7+ inches. We all know it isn't going to happen, so why post it? That's the definition of trolling. I even looked back, and DC didn't even get 7 inches of snow during some of the historical March snowstorms, like 1958, 1993, and 2018.

You all know it's really not going to snow. There is a lack of cold air, the ground is way too warm, and the sun angle is too strong.

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Come on, you came all the way down here just to troll like this. This isn't Philly. There is no tolerance of trolls, and then forum members will troll you back.

I'm not trolling. I'm being realistic. It doesn't normally snow in DC or Virginia in mid-March, much less following 80-degree days. The sun angle is just too strong.

You need something really special, like the Storm of the Century in 1993, for it to snow at this time of year. We don't have that right now.

Come on, you all know it really isn't going to snow this far south. This isn't New England. There is no cold air, the ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too strong.

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

when is the last time we had two-- 80 + degree days and then the next day heavy snow ?

It has never happened before. May 1977 probably the closest you're going to get:

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

would be a rude awakening for those that thought winter weather was over for this season.....has happened many times in the past after a March warm up - as late as April...

Snow can happen in March or April, but under the right conditions. We just don't have that right now. We have (1) a lack of cold air, (2) the ground is too warm, and (3) the sun angle is too high. We need temps in the 30s and 40s for a few weeks, and that probably isn't happening. Winter weather is just about over. Do not hold out hope for any snow.

We all know snow is not going to happen. (1) There isn't enough cold air, (2) the ground is way too warm, and (3) the sun angle is way too high.

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.

I think this is more like 2015, just one month forward. February looks like it's going to be the last month of the cold pattern in the East, just as March 2015 was.

I get the feeling that April will torch in the East, and finally see a cool down in the West, like May 2015.

We never get a cold winter and cold spring in the same year anymore.

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

let's do 90 in April!

I think 2010 holds the record, and that was after a cold and snowy winter, like this one.

17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The didn’t hit 80 in feb 2018? I think it was 2018. One of the feb in the late 2010’s tha completely torched. I swear they hit 80.

77 on 2/21/2018 and 74 on 2/24/2017. Earliest 80 was 3/8/2000. 82 was 3/9/2016. 83 today.

83 at PHL, breaks the old record of 82 in 2016, and is the earliest in the season that we've reached that temp.

23 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Down to just patches of snow cover here this morning.

I spent the weekend in the Catskills.  Snow is patchy at the trailheads (almost gone in spots), but at least a couple of feet remains starting around 2500 feet and more higher.  In most places the snowpack is thoroughly rotted.  It has no structure and if you go off the packed tracks you sink to the bottom with very little resistance.  Some of the trails were washed out rivers on Sunday.  The snowpack there is going to release a lot of water between now and Wednesday.

Yeah, I passed by the Catskills on the way to (Saturday) and from (yesterday) Vermont. I didn't find much snow on the ground level. The snow was still there in Vermont, especially the further north I went (the furthest I went was Weston).

2009-10 is the only one of those seasons that was really el nino.

1993-94 and 2013-14 were ENSO neutrals, and 2020-21 was a deep moderate la nina.

The 1983 and 2016 storms are the only ones that were in el nino.

The 1993 storm was an ENSO neutral, and the 2021 one was in that deep moderate la nina of 20-21.

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

end of march last yr

Yeah, it was March 29. 

7 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

There are exceptions to that reasoning, the most extreme one that came to mind was the blizzard of 1888.  It was unseasonably mild and raining just before that event.

I checked the climate summary, and it looks like it was very cold leading up to the March 1888 snowstorm:

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Skyrockets in flight this morning with Ditty and ORH well into the 40s.

Got down to 32 in this morning:

I'm headed back home for some afternoon delight with temps in the 70s.

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This potential is reminding me of this March storm

Snow storm, March 18, 1994 - Storm Summary

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event:

Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Dont you live in Philadelphia? How do you make these declarative statements for a region you're not even part of. 

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm.

This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

There's a difference between chilly and snowstorm. Temps in the 40s, probably. But if you're holding out hope for snow, it's probably not going to happen. Almost always, snow after March 15 is accompanied by cold before it. We don't have that now.

On 3/6/2026 at 6:30 PM, cmillzz said:

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

You might have to go to the Southern Hemisphere for it, lol.

27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC day 10 looks like  March 1958 

Nope, nothing alike. The high temperature for the entire month of March 1958 was 54. We're at 72 on the 2 pm EDT observation. There isn't going to be a historic snowstorm around the vernal equinox.

A wild ride here in temperatures. Still very warm:

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

You realize that’s perfectly possible with a back door cold front right? ENE wind off the ocean. Somehow I doubt Vermont is seeing a heavy marine influence 

Vermont is more influenced by the mountains. But there has a been a wild temperature swing the last 12-18 hours. From 58 to 40 and now back up to 54 at 7 am. Still well above average for this time of year at that latitude, and quite a contrast from negative temperatures following the late January snowstorm.