PhiEaglesfan712

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

ECM has snow shower activity Tuesday

 

Where? Vermont? NH? Maine? Because there isn't any snow happening anywhere near here.

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only 10 days away on an OP run - what could go wrong ???

All these torches since early March have hit, though.

39 minutes ago, FPizz said:

didn't they change the location though?  philly runs very high all the time.  rainshadow (Tony Gigi) who used to post here years ago and worked for mt holly for years still makes fun of their temps.  I'll take a real met over the wannabe's in here any day.  

The last time they changed location was late 1930s/early 1940s, I think. Before that, it was in Center City.

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Do we then cool down after that warmup late next week, as has been the pattern?  Or do we get sustained warmth finally?  Have to wait until early next week to see what ensembles show IMO.  Takes some time to kick BDCF season around here.

The EURO shows sustained warmth coast-to-coast (see @bluewave's post in page 2). We've been in that pattern since early March.

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The craziest thing is we were the cooler region compared to most of the country. The amount of +10-15 readings is insane. 

If that happens during June or July then it's gonna get ugly. 

If that happens, and the heat dome is centered somewhere around Death Valley, the American/global temperature record of 134 degrees could finally fall.

9 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

More chilly weather next week is fine with me but we can't spin up some kind of nighttime system with precipitation for an inch or two of wet snow? Should be plenty cold aloft. What a boring end to a really cool winter. I hope we get three weeks like tomorrow before the summer blow torch develops by Memorial Day. 

There hasn't been plenty cold aloft since at least early March. I was in Vermont for 3 days (March 7-9), and it was 55+ each day. I knew winter was essentially over at that point. And that's okay, as sometimes, the coolest winters end abruptly. Look at 2010 (after February) and 2015 (after March), for example. 2010 had (at the time, it was broken only 2 years later) the warmest spring on record, and 2015 had a near record warm May.

The Euro is also showing a torch pattern mid-month, coast-to-coast.

PHL was 84.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0530 PM EDT WED APR 01 2026

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET, WHICH WAS FIRST 
SET IN 1917 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1978.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA DATE BACK TO DECEMBER 
OF 1873.

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15):

April 1997: +0.59

April 2015: +0.98

We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. 

PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 

I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed.

In case you haven't gotten it by now, winter is over: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No 90s the month as a whole was +1.5 -  +2 and highest was a 3 day strech of 80s mid april.  88 in EWR was the max

Then, there was a huge rainstorm the weekend after (which would have been a snowstorm if it happened earlier in the season).

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Warmest marches and subsequent months dep's:
 

Year	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct
2012	+8.3	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+3.3	+2.5	+1.5	+0.5
1945	+6.8	+1.5	+0.5	+0.5	+1.0	+0.5	0.0	+0.5
2024	+5.8	+2.5	+1.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5	TBD
2016	+5.0	+1.5	+0.5	+1.0	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0	0.0
2023	+4.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+1.5
1990	+4.6	+1.0	+0.5	+1.5	+2.5	+2.0	+1.0	+1.0
2010	+4.4	+2.0	+1.5	+2.5	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5
1998	+4.0	+2.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0
2020	+3.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5

 

This does not look accurate. 2025 should be there, not 2023. Plus, some of those months, off memory, I can tell you should have negative temperature departures.

6 minutes ago, w1pf said:

o rly?

What in the Mid-Atlantic forum is this?

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot:

 It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified

It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified

It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified

 

I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI.

Sources:

Euro progs

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 

ONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

 

Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time.

I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino. 

A moderate el nino would be nice for a change. We haven't had a true one since 2002-03. Closest we had was 2006-07 (but that stalled at 0.9 on the ONI and RONI) and 2009-10 (but that went over 1.5).

Moderate el ninos seem to be the sweet spot for good winters in the Eastern US. The only one that didn't really pan out was 1994-95, but that was due to a -PDO, and even then, we got one good month of winter weather (February).

March is going to be the first widespread AN temperature month for Eastern US cities since September. October and November were NN, and of course, December, January, and February were solidly BN.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

If the PDO turns positive this year, then 1988 becomes the obvious anti-2026 log.

In the East, 1988 was a very warm summer, followed by a very cool fall.

2 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

It was always obvious this was going to be a very warm spring tbh, but some people kept trying to hang on to winter for as long as possible.

I mean, I called this back in early February. I just knew the cold pattern wasn't going to last forever. 3 solid BN temperature months is the most we can get at a time. The last time it happened was in January-March 2015. April 2015 is when things turned warmer, and May 2015 was a near record warm month.

It looks like the same thing is happening.

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right- and part of my reason for mentioning is because there've been pretty much   0   milder weekend days, so far. 

as far as i can personally recall that is.  All the warm/ish anomalies have been week days.  Looking for the first no-snow-on-ground 70 F day with light wind on the weekend

March 7 weekend was a warm anomoly. I was in Manchester, Vermont from March 7-9 (Saturday-Monday), and it was 55+ each day. The only time I saw a frozen ground was going up to Weston on that Monday morning, before going back home.

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

April may end up being a month long inferno.   No blocking appears to be in the cards

I've been saying May 2015 is a good analog for April. Second month after the end of a cold and snowy winter, and a possible budding strong el nino.

What this board needs to do is remove the attachment quota (like The Weather Forums does), or at least put it high enough that we don't have to remove our old attachments on a regular basis.

33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It has been, just not on the weekends haha. Like today going to the upper 60s low 70s for the next few days. Welcome back to the work week! 

The last 6 weekends (before this past one) were warm.

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I keep watching the last two minutes. So many “what if’s?”

Not even just the last 2 minutes. 3:24 in the first half, Duke was up 44-25. They never score the rest of the half. If they score even 2 points in that 3:24, they would have won. It's the little things in the game, which may seem innocent at the time, that end up being the difference.

The snow season is officially over: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Been a very warm March

I can't say I'm surprised. I predicted warm March and April at the beginning of February. I just knew that the cold was going to end at some point. We had 3 solid BN temperature months. The last time it happened was January-March 2015. April 2015 turned warmer, and May 2015 was near record warm. Also, sometimes the cold and snowy winters just come to a sudden end. Just look at 2009-10. After February, things just got warmer in March and temps reached 90 in the first week of April.

14 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Yes, sir- Seen the debate from time to time. Understand your opinion.  If we merge and continue to 'represent"- might work out as a more integrated entertaining/educational forum- such as the New England forum has acheived- despite it being hundreds of miles in breadth- but united across 6 states.  We could pull that off, too- given another attempt. 

If it were up to me, I would merge the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia, and NYC into one region, and do it like this:

New England - CT/MA/VT/NH/RI/ME

NY/PA/NJ

Mid-Atlantic - DE/MD/DC/VA/WV