PhiEaglesfan712

6 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

95 was very hot..especially mid July, one of the worst heatwaves of the century..also summer of 95 was a developing La Nina

93 and 95 were the worst heatwaves ever. Those summers had wall-to-wall heat, with not really much relief. 2010 and 2012 were just as bad, but improvements in the infrastructure made it easier for us to be equipped to handle the heat than it was during the mid-90s summers.

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think that'll warm up and models will back off on the blocking 

Yeah, I think we will have near normal temperatures the last week of April/early May, but I can't see a 2023-redux (which turned cold in late April and all the way through June) happening.

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

97 was not bad, but that was probably because relative to 96 it had way more 90 degree days, but it was at least normal.  Most of the El Nino summers though were not mild.  2002/2009/2015 I don't believe were either.

2002 was a very warm summer, but the 02-03 event was a moderate, as it didn't quite peak at above 1.5 on the ONI/RONI.

2009 wasn't warm, and in fact, one of the coldest June/July.

2015 was slightly warmer than normal, but 2016 was much warmer. 2014 was the cool summer, and you could technically count that as the pre-nino summer if you consider 14-15 (borderline warm neutral/weak el nino) as part of the el nino event.

Almost all 1.5+ peak seasons have warmer post-nino summers than pre-nino summers, with the exception of the Pinatubo case in 91-92.

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

95 was pretty brutal maybe you're thinking of 96?

Yeah, it had to have either been 96 or 97. Both were really cool summers (followed 3 very hot summers).

JJA averages (PHL)

1993: 78.2

1994: 78.4

1995: 78.6

1996: 74.0

1997: 74.2

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2023 wasn’t really that cool at all. But relative to the other recent years it seemed that way. I guess the new definition of a cool summer in the 2020s is under 30 days reaching 90° at a warm spot like Newark as was the case in 2023.

An actual cool summer like 2014 and 2009 had 15 or fewer days. A really cool summer like 1996 had under 10 days.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	39	0
2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0

Coolest summers since 1961

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
7	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0

The thing to watch as we head into the summer is if a much wetter pattern than we have been experiencing can develop. Since we had some record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer in 2023. Hard to tell at this early stage if this El Niño will respond with that much wetness. Long range precipitation forecasting is very low skill. 

Summer 2023 was a delayed summer. It was one of those rare ones where September was warmer than June. While JJA fell a tenth or two below the 1981-2010 average, the JAS temperature finished a tenth or two above the 1981-2010 JJA average. Plus, the early September heatwave helped drive up the 90-degree numbers for 2023.

Also, I'm not sure where the narrative of record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer of 2023 came from, but aside from the April 28-30 rainstorm, that spring was pretty much dry here, with May 2023 being a record dry May. It really didn't get wet until about mid-June.

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Nino summer are not exactly known for warmth. I dont know if thats in play this summer or next, but I remember one such summer in 1995 when the AC rarely if ever went on. Granted, it was a cooler climate back then

General rule is that pre-strong nino summers are colder and post-strong nino summers are warmer in the East. It wasn't 1995 (that was one of the warmest summers on record, as was 1993 and 1994). However, both 1996 and 1997 were cooler summers (1997 was a pre-nino summer). It must have been one of those years.

The only time the rule didn't hold was when the pre-nino summer of 1991 was very warm, and the post-nino summer of 1992 was cool. However, we had a major volcano in 1991 (in Pinatubo), and that screwed things up. 91-92 behaved more like the reverse of the way a strong el nino would normally. Global temperatures actually cooled, as the effects of Pinatubo canceled out a robust el nino.

Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970

72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1)

82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7)

86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5]

91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0)

97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7)

09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6)

15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8)

23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range models are moving toward more blocking during the last week of April.

This was what happened following the mid-April record warmth back in 2023 during the developing El Nino.

The difference is that we had record warmth in 2023 starting in January. I mean, we had to regress to the mean at some point. We had more blocking in late April, and that pattern lasted through May and June, and gave us our coldest May/June in many years. I don't expect that this year. It's likely May will be a lot closer to normal, but we aren't getting -2/-3 monthly temperature departures like May and June 2023.

14 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We did…but that set the stage for the next two winters(92-93, and 93-94)  which started the big run. And then we had a shit year, and then 95-96 broke 93-94!  Before all that started everybody thought the big winters were a thing of the past.  That’s why I laugh at the pessimists now…I lived through the horror, and we came back stronger than ever. And we will AGAIN! 

What helped was a major volcano (Pinatubo). This caused global temperatures to drop temporarily, making it favorable for cold and snowy winters in 92-93, 93-94, and even 95-96. If not for that, then global temperatures would have broken records in 1992, following a 3rd robust el nino in a decade (after 1982-83 and 1986-88). But the cooling period was over by the 1997-98 super el nino, the fourth robust el nino in just over 15 years.

Unless there is another Pinatubo this summer, I expect global temperatures to shatter another record (following a 2nd robust el nino in 4 years), making it unlikely we have another cold and snowy period like 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Weeklies, by the way:

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Logic test: What's a super La Nina like? 

There's only been one: 1916-17 (and this was part of a triple la nina, which began in 1915-16 and ended in 1917-18). That was when global temperatures were at a minimum in the post-Industrial Revolution era. Of course, 1916-17 and 1917-18 are some of the coldest CONUS winters on record, and I believe the super la nina had a hand in it.

The closest we've come since then were in 1973-74 and 1988-89, and both immediately followed robust el ninos (the super el nino of 1972-73 and double el nino of 1986-88, respectively). Classic cases of "sometimes the strongest el ninos are followed by the strongest la ninas". I feel like if we get a strong/super el nino, this time around it's going to be followed by a strong la nina, like in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

How did that month rank overall 

Because you have to look at the whole and not just a few record days. 2010 was much warmer overall 

April 1976 was well above average in most of New England, and above average in New York, eastern PA, and NJ. This is still Boston's warmest April on record. Although, April 2010's warmth is much more widespread for the Eastern US.

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you kidding me??  W(where)TF have you been. We’ve had temps in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s in April here in the past for a week.  You’re so f’n LOST bro! 

Yeah, 50 years ago was the Easter/Patriot weekend heatwave:

11 hours ago, BrianW said:

Forgot about that warm stretch in April 23 where BDL hit 92/96.

May and June that year was really cold. I don't think it reached 96 in those months (I know it did in July and September). Of course, there was the freeze on May 18.

10 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I'm with drought guy @Albedoman though growing a bit concerned about the lack of rain in the forecast. April is typically one of our wettest months and the long range looks mostly warm and dry outside of a few brief frontal passages. No mud season this year.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a nice rainstorm/mud season in October this time, when the high school football season is in full swing.

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

Same thing with the strong la ninas. 1916-17 was the only one in the first 100+ years post-1850. (Coincidentally, 1917 was the year when global average temperature hit a minimum.) Since then, we've had strong la ninas in 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C. 

10 hours ago, Monty said:

May 18th, 2023 is a day that will live in infamy for gardeners and farmers across the tri state. 

Also, May 9, 2020. Both of those happened after very warm and virtually snowless winters.

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.)

From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023.

1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record.

All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.5° (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Don't you mean April? And I think these temperatures are severely underestimated. This April looks like it's going to be near record warm.

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA:  91 (2010)
JFK: 87 (2010)

It's amazing how quickly a pattern can change. Not even 6 weeks earlier, we were wrapping up a very cold and snowy February. Almost like what we have this year.

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Pinger squall


.

This can't be. Pinger season has been done for 2 months now.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas.   Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur.  

Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that.   Where is this extremeness coming from ?   

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super):

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987)

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

That April 1982 snowstorm showed just what could have been. If not for a long lull in February and March, 1981-82 could have been a historic snow season. But the April storm was a nice reminder of that cold and snowy pattern in January 1982.