PhiEaglesfan712

13 hours ago, Newman said:

I'm lumping 2023-24 into the group with 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 given the very strong Nino status (ONI 2.0 in NDJ) and some similarities to the current global pattern (-PDO. Also, given it's the closest year to our newer, warmer trending climate). Here's the temperature anomalies averaged DJF for those 4 winters:

 

It follows a pretty typical Nino look, though I would argue the near to slightly below normal averages in the SE US, and heck even the modest above normal averages in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, are skewed by 1982-83, and especially the month of January. Jan 1983 and 2016 were both cold in the Mid-Atlantic and SE US, and like @The Iceman mentioned, we got big dogs both those years:

 

But Jan 1998 and 2024 averaged very warm in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:

 

And as far as February goes, most of the strong to super Nino months were warm across the northern tier and cooler in the south.

 

Under the assumption (even if it's unlikely) that the North Pacific doesn't respond to the super Nino (I.e. we have a -PDO into the winter) then 2023-24 would have to be a close analog. Right now, I would lean towards a much warmer January, in the average, similar to 1997-98 or 2023-24. I do not think that the northern Rockies and Central Plains will average cold in January, like those years, but rather will average warm and the Southwest and Southern Plains could be cooler. I'd venture that the warmth extends well up the east coast, unlike 1983 and 2016. Precipitation anomalies are likely to be above to much above normal up the eastern seaboard, with the highest anomalies in the central Appalachians and Southeast US.

However, like mentioned in the posts above, there will be a much higher than normal chance for a very big snowstorm. My fear, though, is if the source region for our cold is simply not sufficient enough *when we do get cold northerly flow* for snow down to the coast. It seems like a winter with lots of mix events NW of I-95 and rain more times than not. Should we get a well timed cold blast that's sufficient for snow, then it could be a good one.

 

KPHL snowfall totals for these select years:

1982-83: 37.9 inches (21.3 in the Feb blizzard)

1997-98: 0.8 inches

2015-16: 27.5 inches (22.4 in the Jan blizzard)

2023-24: 11.2 inches

 

KABE snowfall totals for these select years:

1982-83: 45.8 inches (25.2 in the Feb blizzard)

1997-98: 7.7 inches

2015-16: 36.2 inches (31.9 in the Jan blizzard)

2023-24: 25.2 inches

1972-73 should be included as well. That was a -PDO, and was pretty much snowless at PHL.

On 9/2/2026 at 3:29 PM, olafminesaw said:

I doubt it given the limited scope, maybe different if the band had parked over a major city

Yeah, if Emily didn't get retired (and that was a C5), I highly doubt they are going to retire Edouard. 

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NOAA August PDO came in at -1.11 vs July’s -1.35. This is the 2nd month in a row for which the NOAA monthly actually came in less negative than what the WCS dailies suggested (see image below). That is even more the case with August, for which the WCS averaged slightly lower than -1.5. This -1.11 compares to the significantly stronger -PDO of Aug of 2023 of -2.02:


 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)?

This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84:

 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly why we will never break the records from years like 1936, 1953 and 1966. Mark my words Chris it will NEVER happen. We will have plenty of very hot summers, I fully expect next summer to be like 1983 and 2010, and get to the 100-102 range maybe three or more times, but the high end heat of 1936 (106 at Central Park) 1953 (102 in September, a mega heat wave of 2 weeks length), 1966 (107 at LGA, 104 at JFK) that will never happen again, at least not in our lifetimes. Obviously other regions will break their all time records because climate change means different things to different parts of the world and in different times of the year. Our springs haven't become hotter either. 1991 a pre el nino year had a spring much hotter than this year and the summer was hotter too.

 

 

July 22, 2011 had high end heat. A lot of records that day, including EWR's all-time high of 108.

1 hour ago, BBasile said:

They haven't said yet.  I'm guessing it has to be Adam Joseph, right?  

With the MLB lockout looming, maybe Mike Trout retires after the season and takes over. We all know Trout has a love for meteorology.

[Most likely not going to happen (at least right now), but crazier things have happened. Realistically, though, the Phillies need to make a trade for Trout. Philly already has LeBron, now time for the baseball team to land the big fish.]

PHL mean temperature

August 2026: 79.2 (tied 8th warmest)

Summer 2026 (JJA): 78.8 (tied 3rd warmest with 2016, only behind 2010 and 2022)

I think 1984 on that Top 10 warmest list is a mistake. That was one of the cooler summers at PHL. I think that one was one of the Top 10 least 90-degree days ever, and I believe the earliest last-90 on record. 1980 or 1988 would make much more sense there.

With yesterday's beach storm out of the way and football season officially beginning, it's now time to start the fall thread.

Update: Storm is out of the way. The football season has officially begun!

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Ugly day at the beach in NJ

 

Yeah, I can confirm, as there was a massive delay with the Battle at the Beach high school football games in Ocean City. All the games starting after 1 got moved back an hour.

Looks like the storms today missed us. They went south, affecting the Battle at the Beach high school football games in Ocean City: https://x.com/Mtrible/status/2093371539525657029

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

EWR currently in 4th place all time wettest months of August

2026: 10.16

Rank	Year	August Rainfall
1	2011	18.79"
2	1955	11.84"
3	1971	10.63"
4	1942	8.46"
5	2003	8.21"
6	1990	7.71"
7	2007	7.32"
8	1978	7.30"
9	2021	7.19"
10	1974	7.17"
11	1989	7.03"
12	1959	6.94"

Lots of la nina years on this list. 1955 and 2007 were developing strong la ninas; 2011, 1974, and 1989 were exiting strong la nina years; 1971 and 2021 were also moderate la nina years.

At the end of the day, the winter of 2025-26 was a warmer version of 2014-15. The 10+ departures in the West were much more widespread, and the cold in the East wasn't as strong or as long.

Name changes are more common than you think. Just look at all the pro sports stadiums. You don't realize it, but their name changes hand often, and sometimes silently. As they say, in this country, if you pay enough...

19 hours ago, MANDA said:

Picked up .28" here in two rounds of fast moving T-Showers.  Lots of thunder.

Wow, school starting early.  I can never remember going back until Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day.  

Driving around yesterday I saw some trees starting to show some color, not brown but reddish orange in spots.  Fall is coming.

In New Jersey, the high school football season now starts in late August. It has since 2018. I think that's why school now starts in late August, rather than after Labor Day.

Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene... In honor of Dolly

On 8/25/2026 at 1:07 PM, olafminesaw said:

You can tell this hurricane season is a lost cause because half of wx Twitter is "X hurricane made landfall on this date 13 years ago"

Funny thing is that wouldn't be true because 13 years ago was 2013, which was a very quiet season. All storms that year were either TS or C1.

All of the notable hurricanes came during the active seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were 14-16 years ago.

Now that everyone's convinced that the el nino won't peak as high, watch the 5C peak in February run verify.

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Climate dashboard is still going with a +3.3 RONI peak. This would be a daily peak and not trimonthly.

 

Imagine if that purple, late-blooming one that peaks near 5C verifies.

The March 1993 superstorm, 93-94, and 95-96 were the fruits of Pinatubo's temporary global cooling.

I was in the spa on Friday night, and my sister asked me why the spa doesn't stay consistently hot. It was at that moment that my understanding of the el nino/la nina cycle truly clicked.

My answer was that it requires an extra amount of energy to maintain that heat. The same way that it requires extra heat to maintain an el nino. It was at that point that I realized why an el nino doesn't last, and ENSO neutrals/la ninas are more natural, lasting states.

Then, she said that at hotels (where spas are maintained at continuous heat), there is a warning that you should not stay more than 15 minutes. It was at that point that I realized that if the earth was in a continuous el nino state, it would not really be habitable. (Like you'd have to leave the continuous warm spa after 15 minutes, you'd have to leave continuous earth to cool off after a certain period of time.)

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

I finally got the IRI links to work:

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Aug dep through the first 3 weeks (21st)

JFK: +2.1
ISP: +2.1
EWR: +1.8
LGA: +1.1
NYC: +0.3

Same pattern as June and July: Very warm first half of the month, only to be offset by a cooler second half of the month. I wonder if this continues, and things turn warmer to begin September.