PhiEaglesfan712

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

The 10-year snow drought is over: https://x.com/amarkowitzWX/status/2015592086276313584

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different? 

Probably more muted. I highly doubt we see a record February warm, then a record snowy March, like we did in 2018. Both months will probably be much closer to normal, and I wouldn't be surprised if one actually had a +5 departure.

49 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

5. 1994 (I wasn't yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.  

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon.

The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me 

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

I moved my Vermont trip to March 7-9. We can be sure there won't be a snowstorm that weekend, right?

4 hours ago, roardog said:

The CFS v2 is pretty much heading toward a super Nino. I’m not sure anything currently indicates that an outcome like that is likely. 

I'm skeptical of a super nino developing in 2026-27. They normally don't develop that strong on the first try. 2015-16 is a very good example. Some models were predicting a possible strong el nino as early as 2012-13.

I think if there's a super el nino, it will more likely happen in 2027-28. If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I think it will be capped at a high end moderate, possibly low end strong. (We also cannot count out the possibility of a double-year el nino, peaking during the summer, like 1986-88.)

1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said:

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although these maps sometimes overstate snowfall by a category, the below map illustrates just how expansive the impacts of the storm that will ultimately bring the Northeast its biggest snowfall in perhaps nearly five years will be.

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Clipper bomb into a coastal that skirts up the coast. 

It was 21 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... we actually had that happen. Then, of course, the Eagles would go on to win the NFC Championship.

2005

2016

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

That subsurface warm pool has not budged for almost 2 months now and is moderating things further east. This seems like we go warm neutral into next fall/winter.

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

4 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I wasn't trying to claim the NW has had some epic snow season - just that the bottom part of the smiley outline will fill in now. The circled area. It's been far too warm in the Northwest for meaningful heavy snow anomalies. Even within that context though, you can still see the general shape of what I outlined held up, despite the warmth. This southern portion of the storm track pattern will shift north somewhat in Feb-Apr and some of the West will do better in that time frame. I'd imagine CO will catch up a bit then.

How does this compare to the winter of 2014-15?

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Our best storms always have some non-snow in the mix.

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

12 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends. 

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me. 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday.

If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

Please keep the storm south. I have to travel up north to Vermont on Sunday. I'd much rather it hit North Carolina. My nephews (4, 3 on Sunday, and 5.5 months) have probably never seen a snowstorm before, and they'd probably welcome it. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms, and don't really need it right now.

14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Recent coldest at EWR last 25 years:  Bolded 5 and below

 

The 2 in Feb 2012 has to be a mistake. I don't ever remember it getting anywhere near that cold at any point during that winter. 

2005

2016

I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years.

El Nino

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-87/1987-88

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

La Nina

1955-56

1973-74

1975-76

1988-89

1998-99

1999-2000

2007-08

2010-11

Which of these years did the PNA not hold?