PhiEaglesfan712

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

The result is going to define the rest of the season. If we do get the 6-10 inch snow solution, I feel the winter might stay a little longer. If it ends up being rain or nothing, then I think the winter is winding down.

2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June.

We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions  one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. 

Just a forecast could be wrong we will see.

Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Joe Cioffi thinks a cold potentially snowy second half of March

 

Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March.

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

He changed his name to PhiEaglesfan

Nope

10 or 46 is probably the most likely outcome, considering how most of the storm tracks have gone this year.

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lol.

can't win em all

I'm sure a lot of NYC folks would feel the same about Mar 2017...even Dec 2003 it looks like around your area did very well compared to the city. That storm blew chunks here. Dry slot city. Orange county definitely got some of the goods that storm.

 

 

Not really, peope were just happy to see any type of snow in March 2017. It pretty much saved the season. Without it, 2016-17 would have been just another BN snowfall season to go along with a torch winter.

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The Euro is going into phase 6?

The Euro shows a COD.

Thanks for the idea @JTA66

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And you have nailed it this whole season since October. You're one, two and three month predictions have been phenomenal. We don't even feel worthy of them anymore.

Maybe take them to the New England Forum for awhile so they can benefit too.  I'm sure the gang there would love your constant warm bias, I mean insight.

Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD).

AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Understatement of the year.

NYC

Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0

Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7

Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6

May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2/12- 2/13 :  near to below avg
2/13 - 2/20 :  Moderation to  / above avg first 50+ possible for some  TueWed next week, Rain 2/19-20
2/21 :  Moderation back colder
2/22 - beyond : perhaps more activity to track with an overall colder close to the month - at this point it doesnt look significantly strong cold.

Those are exactly my thoughts for the rest of the month, though I'm not sure if it rains 2/19-20. It does turn warm to begin March (with us entering MJO Phase 6), and we should get our first 60+ during the first week of March.

14 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This winter is far from over. A ton of anomalously cold air in Canada and tendency for that air to intrude south periodically. It’s only less than mid February. I would be surprised if most places around the NYC metro that are sitting on between 25-30” of snow didn’t finish +40”.

Historical snow seasons have ended early. 2009-10 in Baltimore or DC is a perfect example. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow at this point in 2010 following Snowmageddon, and it didn't really snow again after that. [In fact, it reached 90 during the first week of April.]

For NYC, that was 2010-11. It didn't stop snowing, but there was a huge drop off after January. Only 5.8 inches of snow fell after January (with only 4.2 inches after this point).

I do have to agree with @NEG NAO's maps of late February. I think there is a small window of opportunity for cold (and maybe a snowstorm) in the final week of February, but this will be like threading the needle.

However, it is not going to last, as the MJO is heading towards phase 6 in the last days of February or the first days of March. That's the worst phase for cold and snow. Those hoping for a 3rd act 4/7/2003 snowstorm, I just don't see it in the cards this spring.

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th. 

That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.

28 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

I did hint, after a very warm March and April, that May could be a cooler to average temperaturewise and rainy month.

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.

All those were historical winters:

Also March is going to start out in MJO Phase 6. Good luck trying to get a cold/snowy pattern out of that.

3/2-3/8 and 3/9-3/15 being AN shouldn't really be a surprise. The MJO is going to be in phase 6 to begin March, which is normally a torch phase for early March.

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

May 9 2020 we had on and off snow showers most of the day. Even NYC picked up a trace. I received almost an inch during one of the squalls with the green grass and cherry tree blossoms almost getting covered.  
 

34° and heavy snow during the afternoon of May 9. I'd only seen that one other time up around here and that was the 1977 May 9 snow event. That was much worse than the 2020, or better depending on perspective. Personally I loved it. 
 

That snow event on May 9 showed the wasted potential of 1977. That could have been an all-time  season if March and April didn't torch. As it stands, 1976-77 was a record cold fall and winter.

Just now, winterwarlock said:

2011 i think was my favorite March ever. Did we have 60s, 70s, and even some 80's for daaaayyyze

The first half to 2/3 were warm, with 60s and 70s in the middle of the month. That last week to 10 days were a return to winter, so the month ended NN. April-July 2011 was an absolute torch, culminating with all-time record highs on 7/22.

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

2015 was my best storm in march....nearly a foot, super cold and all fluffy.

Same with me, and yes, March was below average temperaturewise, a continuation of a historically cold February (almost like how this February BN is a continuation of January).

But as we know, things even out over time, and May 2015 was near record warm. I'm seeing the same progression here. We don't go months on end BN, like we did in 95-96, with no really good reason.

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February.  

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

It was 20 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... the February 2006 snowstorm: