PhiEaglesfan712

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter.

If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral.

La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again. 

07-08 is one of those rare winters that didn't follow the November/December la nina rule. We got a cold November/December, with a snowstorm on December 5. Instead of a cold and snowy winter, January-April was warm with very little snow.

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa.

 

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL.

But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

Yeah, a 1949-50 or 2022-23 snowless type season is not out of the question. Some places could even set a new record low for the least snowy 10-year period in 2025-26. For example, PHL would break the record (set from 1922-23 through 1931-32) with less than 13.4 inches of snow this upcoming winter.

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We saw the same effect following the smaller jump in global temperatures in 1997-1998. Since we are yet too see a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996 repeat in the years which followed.

We had a repeat in 2002-03 through 2004-05. 02-03 was a blockbuster winter, 03-04 was cold, and 04-05 had above average snowfall.

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not expecting perfection. But I think boundary conditions, particularly SSTAs are probably the most important variables. The area of warmest Winter 2013-14 North Pacific SSTAs are not a great match with what currently exists. At present, Winter 2020-21 is a better North Pacific Match (again not perfect, but better).

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.

If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: 

Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.

If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season.

We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.

I'm pretty sure this 2-year ACE record is going to stand for a very long time.

6            2004      226.94

1            2005      247.65

Even in this era of more storms, we've only had 2 hyperactive ACE seasons post-2005:

8            2017      224.8775

11          2020      180.3725

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001.

I'm pretty sure 2006 had a colder than normal first half and second half of September. It also had a colder than normal first half and second half of October. Then, things really flipped and we had record warmth from November through the first of January 2007 (before the bottom fell out of the thermometer in February 2007).

18 minutes ago, roardog said:

In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.

What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….
 

First time since 1992 we have no tropical activity at the peak of the season. That, of course, followed Hurricane Andrew.

It's looking more and more like Erin is going to be a one-off, like Andrew.

1 minute ago, bncho said:

kinda seems like ur "grasping at straws". everything about last year was a la nina except enso, which was pretty close. it's foolish to think that -0.4 is much different than -0.7.

Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state.

I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.

1988 was one that turned cold really quickly. The summer, particularly from June to the first half/two-thirds of August, was then a warmest on record. Then at the end of August, it just turned cold, and never really looked back. October 1988 was one of the coldest on record, and in some spots, beat out the cold standard of October 1976:

Come to think of it, the warm west makes this look like the October version of February (or JFM) 2015.

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs (9/6)
 

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
TEB: 89
New Brnswck: 89
ACY: 88
TTN: 88
BLM: 87.1
LGA: 86
NYC: 86
ISPL 82
JFK: 81 

Barring a 10/2/2019 event, this should be all she wrote for the summer weather until next season.

Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The reason the Euro seasonal snowfall forecast worked out from Philly to Boston is that the storm track matched the seasonal forecast. So it didn’t really matter for the snowfall outcomes that the overall forecast for DJF was too warm. Since the colder conditions than forecast last winter all arrived behind the Great Lakes cutters after the warm storm tracks. 

I love how you cherry pick "Philly to Boston". Why not the mid-Atlantic (Philly to DC)? Oh wait, a lot of places there had a higher snow average the last 2 years than in 16-17 to 22-23, so it won't fit your agenda?

4 hours ago, roardog said:

I’ll take Nina over Nino every time around here in the winter. Hopefully we do have a “warm” October. It feels like a lot of times a cold October turns into a mild December. Although, that’s  probably due to a cold October being more common in a Nino. A cold October is kind of useless anyway except for chasing the first flakes of the season or some sloppy early season slush accumulation that melts in a few hours. 

Classic case is 2011. That was a cold October, with a snowstorm at the end of the month. Pattern flipped soon thereafter, and it was blowtorch from November through March.

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is very good support this time for a big shakeup in the pattern by October. Projected tropical forcing/MJO, -ENSO, -PDO, -IOD. I am becoming increasingly confident that October is very likely to be warmer to much warmer than normal….also potentially much drier than normal as well

Octobers have been almost always warmer than average since 2010. Funny enough, the only 2 that were below average were 2011 and 2022, and both of those winters were snowless blowtorches.

28 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to wearing the hoodie again this t-shirt weather last few days is not my style..

This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.

FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. 

The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23.

The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).