PhiEaglesfan712

53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't the 18-19 Niño like really weak sauce, though?

Yes, it was pretty much a disjointed el nino, which just lingered around in the weak el nino/warm neutral phase until late 2019/early 2020, before eventually going into a solid la nina (which lasted until early 2023) and -PDO (which is still ongoing).

As I pointed out earlier in the New England thread, 2026 is a polar opposite of 2020 (as we are exiting a weak la nina/cold neutral phase and heading towards a strong to super el nino, and maybe transitioning to a +PDO):

14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Wonder if this will be like 2020 where things flip to a torch around Memorial Day? Then again I lived out in Milwaukee at the time so I'm not sure how it evolved here but I assume it was similar.

Probably not. This year is probably the polar of 2020. That year, we had an ending weak +ENSO that transitioned into a solid la nina, and a developing -PDO. This year, we have an ending weak -ENSO that looks like it's transitioning to a strong, if not super, el nino, and an ending -PDO/developing +PDO.

Plus, 2019-20 was a very warm and virtually snowless winter that turned cold in April into May, while this winter was cold and snowy, that turned warm in March, and flipped to a torch around Daylight Saving Time.

Happy Draft Day!

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Patriots take at 31?

Does AJ Brown get traded?

Draft Day today! Temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow.

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Eagles take at 23?

Does AJ Brown get traded?

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

25F for the morning low

Sleet in Philly, cold weekend coming cold wave after cold wave lined up

GFS has highs in the 40's to only near 50 for much of the first week of May, normal high for May 1st is what near 70F

What is going on

 

 

March and April have been really warm. Like over +5 to +6 temperature departure at PHL. It was bound to revert to the mean. I don't think it's going to be that cold, but May is going to be much closer to average temperaturewise, and probably more wet than March and April.

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

any snow possible  ?

No, the ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too high now. Plus, Bobby Martrich's last Weather Weeklies was almost 2 months ago: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

December 2023 wasn't in the 30s most days. It rained a lot, but it was a really warm December. It was either the 2nd or 3rd warmest December (along with 2021), both behind 2015.

I think it was December 2022 that was in the 30s most days but hostile for snow, although December 2024 could fit that profile as well.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was a record breaking April temperature drop spanning around 5 days. These charts are just for hourly reports and miss highs or lows recorded between hours. Spots that radiate well dropped more than 60°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=tmpf&hours=111&month=apr&dir=cool&how=exact&syear=1900&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

This comes after we broke the one-day record for biggest temperature drop last month. Yep, this isn't normal. I've seen temperature swings, but not this many in such short order like we have this spring. I hope this doesn't continue. I'll even take consistent 50 or 60 degree days over this. No one wants 100-degree heat to be followed by 50-degree temps in such short order in June or July.

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah feels like seasons won’t change 

Something weird is going on this year. I have never seen so many wild temperature swings like this. I hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one afternoon in June or July, then be near 50 degrees at the same time the next day or a few days later.

17 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

heavy sleet in NW Philly (:

The ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too high, for that. Keep in mind, the latest snowstorm in Philadelphia was on April 19-20, in 1983. If there was heavy sleet right now (which there isn't), it would be historic.

I mean, snowflakes flew on May 9, 2020 and a freeze occurred on May 18, 2023 in some spots. And those were following very warm and nearly snowless winters.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Why can’t we get that?

We got that last week. Widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US.

How 2026 compares to the strong (but not super) pre-nino composite

1986

 09APR1986        -0.8       -0.2        0.0       -0.4
 16APR1986        -0.8        0.2        0.1       -0.4

1991

 10APR1991        -0.9       -0.3        0.3        0.6
 17APR1991        -0.5        0.3        0.7        0.7

2009

 08APR2009         0.0        0.0       -0.1       -0.2
 15APR2009         0.1        0.1        0.0       -0.3

2023

12APR2023         2.3        0.0       -0.3       -0.3
19APR2023         1.9        0.2       -0.2       -0.3

Matches best with 2023 for Nino 1+2, 1986 for Nino 3, and 1991 for Nino 4.

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 

2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If this is BTV.. SNE should have a solid next 10. Once past Tuesday 

https://x.com/tylerjankoski/status/2046001622073971018?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

lol, those were the temps I had when I went to Vermont in early March.

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 

1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. 

If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 

2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. 

I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28. 

Or could an 86-89 scenario be in the cards? Like a double-year strong el nino in 26-28, possibly peaking off-season (summer of 27), then a flip to a strong la nina in 28-29.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Late freezes happen almost every year now for whatever stupid reason, its not last frost anymore

 

 

Actually, the earliest last freezes at PHL were recorded this decade, in 2020 and 2025:

50 years ago was the Easter/Patriot weekend heatwave. Widespread 90s from DC to Boston. In Providence, the temperature reached 98, which is higher than any temperature recorded in May (and until last year, when it reached 100 on 6/24, any temperature recorded in June).

Many places never got that hot again during the remainder of the spring and summer 1976. In fact, things turned cold early, with a record cool fall and record cold winter in many of these places.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 2015-2016  and 2023-2024 was that we got a great blocking pattern one winter and not so great the other winter. Even 2023-2024 had a good one week period in February with 2 events. But they were narrowly focused into portions of NJ and SNE really couldn’t cash in as much. We did get that record STJ in February associated with the larger event.

Meh, the blocking patterns weren't great in either 2015-16 or 2023-24. That's why temperatures, outside for maybe a few week window, torched during those winters.

2009-10 was the strong el nino winter this century with the great blocking pattern (of course, until late February).

The only strong el ninos that didn't tip their hand early were 1986 and 2009.

Super El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good)

1972 - RONI MAM (0.8); ONI AMJ (0.7)

1982 - RONI MAM (0.6); ONI MAM (0.5)

1997 - RONI MAM (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.8)

2015 - RONI FMA (0.5); ONI SON 2014 (0.5)

Strong El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good)

1957 - RONI FMA (0.7); ONI MAM (0.7)

1965 - RONI AMJ (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.5)

1986 - RONI JAS (0.6); ONI ASO (0.7)

1991 - RONI AMJ (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.5)

2009 - RONI ASO (0.6); ONI JJA (0.5)

2023 - RONI JJA (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.6)

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

If this is true, then the last part of April is going to feature Top 5 record cold. I don't see it happening. April is going to finish with at least a mean temperature of 57. I mean, 2023 ended at 57.6, and that last part of April was really cold. Warmer than normal April should be locked at 100% at this point.

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We probably get an endless deluge August again where it goes away. 

Or in October, when the high school football season is in full swing. Get ready for a lot of mud games

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

April 15th and I had to turn on the AC. It was pretty nasty yesterday. 

I will always remember 2002 for that heat. It started in April and didn't end till September. 

1976 also had the April heat wave. Unlike 2002, it never got that hot again in many places, especially in New England. That year turned cold early, as October 1976-January 1977 was record cold.

This year is the 50th anniversary of that Easter/Patriot Weekend heat wave.