PhiEaglesfan712

11 hours ago, RedSky said:

Small chance of snow on the 23rd 

When will it snow it would be great to watch snow falling two days before Christmas- 2am-8am the same time every single time

 

 

The miracle White Christmas in 1998. Temperatures really torched that month, with 2 days in the 70s in the first week, and temps in the mid-60s as late as the morning of the 22nd. Then, temperatures fell throughout the day, leading to the snowstorm on December 23-24, 1998.

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Nationally, 12/25/25 is going to be close to the historically warm 12/25/21.

I was in North Carolina Christmas weekend in 2021, and it was really warm. I even barbecued the 26th, and have the pictures to prove it: 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.

Oh please, no March 2001. I would not wish that on any snow lover.

I'd prefer March 2017 as an analog.

16 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Early start to winter = early start to mud season.

46F

Does this mean an early start to spring?

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

2000-01 was the most disappointing in my lifetime. I know this one technically ended with above average snowfall, but the epic snow bust in early March left a very sour taste. Oh what could have been if the forecast had even come close to verifying.

Today is the 5th anniversary of the December 2020 snowstorm. This weekend's snowstorm was the biggest December snowstorm since then.

30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal 

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

3 hours ago, bncho said:

Genuinely curious--could you provide some examples?

The most obvious ones are the most recent: 2016-17 and 2022-23.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing

I have a hard time seeing a torch in January and February with a neutral enso going into el nino.

In case you forgot, here's what happened the last time a dissipating la nina led into an el nino:

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Based on what?

Previous years with similar ENSO/IOD/PDO patterns. They tend to have cool Decembers, but torch in January and February.

3 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself. 

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

16-17 was generally a torch in January and February in the Eastern US. It just had a very odd distribution of snow. It was the snowiest season ever in Syracuse (almost 160 inches). But places like Baltimore and DC only got ~3 inches of snow. Talk about a very sharp cutoff.

08-09 is another weird one. Despite how cold October-January was, it would have went below average on snow without the KU on March 1-2.

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MJO still hadn’t gone back into 8 as of 12/12 with it technically still in a very weak 7 per the record: so, 12/8-12 in very weak phases 5-7 essentially neutral with it not far from the center

Looks like it's completely in the center. That's a bullseye if we're playing darts.

World News Tonight got the year of the last December snowstorm wrong. It was in 2020, not 2018: https://x.com/ABCWorldNews/status/2000383451434774960

You would think this would be fact-checked before a major news organization like ABC airs it.

9 hours ago, Voyager said:

What happened when the calendar flipped to January in those years?

1995-1996 -> That one was a wall-to-wall great winter.

2000-2001 -> Okay winter overall, but left a very sour taste with the huge snow bust in March.

2005-2006 -> Very mild January, but a return to winter in February, highlighted by the snowstorm on the 11th-12th. March is mild.

2010-2011 -> Very cold and snowy January, turns milder in February, although a moderate snowfall happens around President's Day. No more snow after that, but we do get one last hurrah of well below average temperatures in late March.

2020-2021 -> January has no snow and above average temperatures until the last day of the month. February is cold and snowy. March is mild.

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Feels like December 2005 the level of cold is the same. Had a 10" snow on the 5th that year and a couple small ones the first half of the month.

 

 

It seems like all the la nina/-ENSO years that end in 5 or 0 are cold in December. See 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The only one one that wasn't cold was 2020, and we got a snowstorm mid-month.

Heck, even Atlantic City is getting snow. That's been hard to come to by the last 7-10 years.

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2010 - The "Pineapple Express" - a meteorological event where southwest winds bring warm, moist air to the U.S. West Coast - produced record rainfall to the Pacific Northwest during December 11th-12th. Seattle experienced record daily rainfall two days in a row. The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded 1.42 inches of rain on the 11th, breaking the old daily record of 1.32 inches set in 1955. The next day, 2.19 inches fell, breaking the daily record of 1.70 inches set in 1966. The Stillaguamish River in western Washington state reached 21.06 feet at Arlington, tying the record set in November 2006. Flood stage for the river is 14 feet. The storm system also brought record warmth to the area. On December 14th, the temperature at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport reached 57, breaking the old daily record of 55 set in 2004. (NCDC)

If I remember correctly, the eastern end of the storm produced heavy snow, and caused the Metrodome roof collapse. The Vikings game got pushed back, but it wasn't enough to save the Brett Favre streak. 

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

9 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t agree. Yes, the deep -IOD is a warm signal but it has weakened significantly since earlier in the fall, and the other factors are more tilted towards cold than say 89-90. 89-90 was a strong La Niña, this is a weak La Niña. Also, the PDO has risen a lot in recent weeks to weakly negative rather than strongly negative. I will concede that Feb has warmer risks, but think we are getting slammed in Jan. Maybe 1 warm week, but I think we go BN temp with well AN snow in the east, especially for northern areas. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

88-89 was the strong la nina. 89-90 was a dissipating weaker la nina/cold neutral, and was firmly ENSO neutral by the time the winter was over.

The IOD was still at -1.4 on November 24, pretty much comparable to 2016 and 2022, both of which were low snow winters at PHL, and torched in January and February. The mid-March snowstorm in 2017 kept that year from being another below 10 inch snowfall season at PHL, and we all know the disaster that 2022-23 was.

Cold and low snow Decembers are the worst combination. They almost always produce torch Januarys and Februarys. Come to think of it, I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter.

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our yards might be muddy, but rivers and streams are at or near record low flowrates for the date.

The yards being muddy is a good sign. That usually means the drought is coming to an end soon.

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN. 

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

The MEI finally updated. Here are the values for the past several months:

MJ 2025: -1.2

JJ 2025: -1.2

JA 2025: -0.9

AS 2025: -1.1

SO 2025: -1.2

ON 2025: -1.1