PhiEaglesfan712

Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East.

It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

 

@bluewave

At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch.

The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?

Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.

This is how the carry-over el nino scenario would look like. This is actually an AI model that (correctly) predicted this very strong el nino. This shows a carry-over (moderate) el nino in 2027-28, before transitioning to a la nina in 2028-29.

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Dep through the 10th / first third of the month

 

ISP: +2.8
JFK: +2.8
EWR: +2.7
LGA: +2.4
NYC: +1.5 (over growth skewed the city by 1 degree over 10 days)

I wonder if August is going to complete the trifecta of positive temperature departures during the first half of the month and negative temperature departures during the second half of the month for this summer, or if August will end up being the most consistently warm month.

On 8/4/2026 at 4:45 AM, chubbs said:

https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global

 

 

Using 1850 as a start point minimizes the damage. The global temperature trend goes downward until about 1917. If we used that as a start point, then the rise would be closer to +2C in ~110 years.

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for posting this. That season was one favorable pattern after another.

I believe that season could have had even higher snowfall totals in today's environment given the added heat/moisture availability. I remember multiple storms where I had hours of virga and snowfall with temps in the teens and lower 20s. 

Yeah, 2009-10 and 2010-11 proved that. Those winters had a lot of snow in a very short period of time. Imagine how high they would have gone if they didn't come to an abrupt end.

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO.

Yeah, it's time to start paying attention. When there is a cold signal this strong during a robust el nino, it's trying to tell you something. Just look at 2009-10, which had a very strong cold signal there in the fall (of 2009).

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010.

That one came with a backlash la nina. The 2009-10 strong el nino formed and dissipated quickly, which allowed a transition to a strong la nina. I wonder if the upcoming el nino peaks early and gives way to the development of a strong la nina in 2027-28. If it does, then expect a record warm summer in the East. Backlash la nina years, like 1973, 1988, and 2010, have produced record warm summers at PHL.

10 hours ago, Cobalt said:

You’re attacking someone on the same team as you  PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.

 

 

If 7/15/1995 isn't on this list, I refuse to believe it's true. That was a very anomolous event. That is by far the highest dew point/heat index in most of the surrounding area.

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

I guess this will be the longest duration heat wave of the summer for many

At least consistent 80+. We won't hit the high temperatures of May-July, but we're not going to be in the 70s (or even lower) in a matter of a few days after the heat is over.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At the same time though it's nothing like 1999 or 2002 this drought has been much more localized. In 1999 for example there was a water emergency in the Poconos. There are water restrictions this year down in the valley cities but it's only because there has been too much rain which has caused sediments to run off into the reservoirs. Nothing for me to worry about because all my water comes from a well.

 

I would use 1971-2000 annual rainfall totals to calculate averages because rainfall became excessive after that Chris.

Now imagine how bad that drought would have been if Floyd didn't happen. 1998-2002 would have been a historic drought.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

To be fair, our last volcanic winter (post-Pinatubo) wasn't that severe. The period between 1991-96 was near normal temperaturewise, maybe a bit below normal. Once the 1997-98 el nino happened, things turned warmer permanently.

53 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Seems like you got a good grasp on what the future holds! Can you tell me tonight's lottery numbers? Powerball is at $786 million. 

All you have to do is look at the previous robust el ninos. There are only really 2 scenarios that make sense here:

1. carry over el nino, like 1987

2. backlash la nina, like 1972 and 1998.

If the el nino wasn't going to be outlier strength, I would say 2 was a forgone conclusion. But the el nino might be so strong, the carry over solution cannot be ruled out.

I don't know which scenario is going to happen, but it should become obvious by late spring/early summer. For example, by May/June 2010, anyone could see it was pretty clear that a strong la nina was forming.

On 8/4/2026 at 6:17 AM, LibertyBell said:

1999 and 2002 stand out clearly in my mind, 1999 even moreso than 2002 because of how it ended with Hurricane Floyd and massive flooding. Both of those droughts were far more expansive.

I have always believed that if not for Hurricane Floyd, we would have likely had a near 5-year continuous drought. The 2002 drought, of course, ended with the severe snowy winter of 2002-03.

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

MJJ 2026 ONI (NOAA): +1.4

MJJ 2026 RONI: +1.0

AMJ 2026 ONI (Eric Webb): +1.0 [NOAA's value came at +0.9]

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market. 

This feels like going up on a strong bull market. It feels like we're setting new records every day.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at.

lol, they must have changed it. The original value there was -2.03 a few hours earlier. I guess they put the WCS value. But now we know there is about a .75 difference between the NOAA and WCS in July.

July 2026 PDO: -2.03

I think somewhere close to neutral PDO is the best scenario for a robust el nino. Strong/super el ninos have busted when the PDO was highly negative or highly positive. A near neutral PDO is the sweet spot (see 1965-66 and 2009-10).

7 hours ago, Prue11 said:

And you’ll sit in endless traffic on a Sunday. Stay home 

Yeah, it's better to go on Saturday. I did this the first Saturday of October in 2024, just before the Bridgehampton K-Mart closed, and the traffic wasn't that bad. Then, took the ferry to New London.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No...it's not. It will be above average.

I'd say favored, but not a guarantee. There have been cold/snowy winters in robust el ninos. 2009-10 finishing as the coldest winter CONUS so far in the 21st century is one example. Also, 1957-58 was a historically cold and snowy winter in many places in the Eastern US.