PhiEaglesfan712

PDO in developing strong/super el nino years

1957 -1.31 -1.57 -0.83 -0.81 -0.02  1.53  0.59  0.34  1.84  1.72  1.54  0.46

1965 -0.95 -0.61 -0.17 -0.01 -0.66 -0.76 -0.74  0.32  0.83  0.30  0.47  0.25

1972 -2.12 -1.95 -1.53 -1.70 -2.16 -1.84 -1.48 -0.11 -0.20 -0.22 -0.05 -0.37

1982  0.11 -0.19 -0.37 -0.70 -1.21 -0.99  0.12 -0.08  0.51  0.15 -0.60  0.16

1986  1.04  1.47  1.68  1.21  0.85  0.62  1.05 -0.19 -0.03  1.00  1.68  1.71

1991 -1.80 -1.09 -1.11 -1.63 -1.65 -2.25 -1.57 -0.58  0.37  0.41  0.56 -0.21

1997  0.44  0.29  0.39  0.73  1.59  2.55  1.49  2.27  1.80  1.78  1.48  0.99

2009 -1.81 -1.78 -2.06 -2.23 -1.32 -0.73 -0.71 -0.49  0.33 -0.13 -0.94 -0.51

2015  1.51  1.52  1.33  0.90  0.32  0.82  1.41  0.98  0.97  0.84  0.17  0.29

2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

 

Closest years were:

2021:

 

1991:

We can probably ignore 2021, since there was no el nino.

1991, with the robust el nino, is probably the better analog. That one bucked the trend, and was an extremely warm spring and summer in the Eastern US. The thing about 1991 was that there was a major volcano in mid-June (which screwed things up), and don't have that (yet) this year.

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last -10 month in the Northeast during February 2015 got much more attention than most of the +10 months since then have.

And don't forget, in that -10 month of February 2015 in the Northeast, there were places in the West that had +10 temperature departures to balance it out.

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. 

In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards. 

2009-10 had close to a neutral PDO. I'd definitely sign up for it if this upcoming winter was a neutral to slightly positive PDO and a -NAO.

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ever had a La Nina this east based?

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s. 

I guess for those who want a cooler and snowy winter, root on for a -NAO to be the fly in the ointment for the robust el nino.

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO

Was 09-10 a strong -NAO?

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants. 

It's only happened once before, when 3 robust el ninos happened in the 1982-92 period, which was a solid +PDO period. After the 2nd el nino event was a strong la nina.

If we do get a very strong el nino, I'm almost expecting that after 2 in a short period, it's going to have to correct to the opposite direction, and a robust la nina will follow after it.

And there was somewhat of a correction in 1983 and 1984, even before the robust 1988 event. There was none in 2024 or 2025. It's got to correct, unless we've reached a point of no return and the global climate is permanently altered.

The Weather Forums is the best: https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/3-the-weather-forums/

Here, you have pretty much unlimited attachments, and discussion is much more civil.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Definitely a flip towards a longer term drier pattern

Yeah, a drought was well overdue. Prior to the drought beginning in September 2024, it had been over 20 years since we had one (the previous one ended in fall 2002).

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.

We've pretty much, more or less, stopped gaining daylight at this point. The sunrises and sunsets are just shifting a little bit later each day, but we aren't really gaining or losing daylight. At least not enough for anyone to really notice. We are in the period of maximum daylight.

12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

I think 95-96 was the last time we had a solid +PDO la nina. Oddly enough, it followed the -PDO el nino in 94-95. I wonder what caused the inverse correlation of those years. Mind you this was at the end of a 20+ year +PDO period (the transition from +PDO to -PDO took place in between the super el nino and strong la nina in 1998).

Maybe we do get something similar this time around, a -PDO el nino in 26-27, followed by a +PDO la nina in 27-28. Then, one final -PDO event, before the transition to +PDO.

I really got lucky this weekend, with the rain and storms on Thursday and last night. Fridaty and Saturday were perfect, and I got late night swims in.

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.

KOQN Airport's max and min needs to be fixed. 19 should be the max value, and 9 the min.

The severe thunderstorm threat is over, correct?

45 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Garden variety storm here last night, nothing special besides for a strong wind gust or two. Looks like another chance today, hopefully earlier in the afternoon/evening so the outdoor World Cup watch party I’m going to isn’t affected. Then another chance on Sunday.

Same here. I'm home alone, and hopefully the thunderstorms are out of the way before sunset, so I can go on a late night swim.

Tomorrow is perfect weather. Can cut the grass and go for a late night swim home alone.

It's interesting that the QBO has swung wildly every year this decade:

2020-21: solid +QBO

2021-22: solid -QBO

2022-23: solid +QBO

2023-24: solid -QBO

2024-25: solid +QBO

2025-26: solid -QBO

2026-27: solid +QBO?

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There is about to be a massive warming surge….  @bluewave @donsutherland1 @LakePaste25 @csnavywx @forkyfork@40/70 Benchmark
 

 

 

 

Okay, I guess this means it will correct itself in the other direction next year, and 2027 will have a cooling that rival years like 1998 and 2010.

To be fair, many thought it would be a cooler June, due to this being a pre-strong nino summer. Such Junes/summers are notorious for being cooler, like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

The only real exceptions to this rule were 1991 and 2015, and both were preceded by a warm neutral ENSO winter. That wasn't the case this year.