PhiEaglesfan712

On 5/4/2026 at 1:44 PM, weatherwiz said:

I would have been on fire had the Bruins advanced too, setting up a B's/Canadiens second round matchup.

What sucks about the current playoff format is the Bruins/Canadiens will never face each other in the conference finals...unless the league goes back to 1-8 formatting which doesn't sound like will be happening anytime soon. 

Forget the 1-8 formatting, we have a better chance if the NHL expands the playoffs, preferably to 24 teams (like in 2020), and seed 1-12. 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.

If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).

Also, a late widespread freeze/snow event in the Eastern US, as far south as North Carolina on April 19-22:

26 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I am really concerned with this COLD weather.  In tonights 18z,  I counted at least 8 days in the next 15 days with lows in the mid to upper 30's and many days not breaking out of the low 50's.  This is by far the coldest spring I can remember in 40 + years. Snow flurries and graupel a real good possibility at these temps if moisture shows its face at the right time.  Cloudy days will force me to run the heater. I have never run the heater in May before. The sycamore leaves are now gone and wilted from the freeze. The other PA forum indicates strawberry damage in Lancaster and York and complete fruit  tree bud destruction.  This maybe the year with "no summer" again at this juncture.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Stop exaggerating. This is nowhere near the coldest spring in 40+ years. March and April were well above average. Top 10 warmest, in fact. Almost half of the springs since 1980 were colder than this year's March and April.

And you're lying if you say you've never run the heater in May before. (Does May 9, 2020 ring a bell?) 

Also, we're not getting a year with "no summer". Keep in mind, the last significantly cold summer in this area was 2009. The most recent cool summers, like 2014 and 2023, are very near the 1981-2010 averages.

PHL finishes April with average temperature 58.7 (4.2 degrees above 1991-2020 average and 4.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average). This is the 4th warmest April on record.

PHL finishes April with average temperature 58.7 (4.2 degrees above 1991-2020 average and 4.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average). This is the 4th warmest April on record.

11 hours ago, bncho said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

We had a great blocking pattern for about a few weeks in January, right around the time of the snowstorm.

It all comes down to the blocking pattern. Not all strong el ninos are duds. If we get a blocking pattern like 2009-10, then we may just get a very good winter. However, if we get a blocking pattern (or lack thereof) like 2015-16 or 2023-24, then we're more than likely going to get a torch.

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)? 

2.56 in October 1997

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

It was a record late freeze in many areas

No, there have been freezes in May before. At PHL, the record is May 11, 1966. Much of this area had a freeze on May 9, 2020.

Even as far south as North Carolina, there was a freeze on April 19-22, 1983 (this was also the latest snow in our area): 

Don't try to tell me that a few weeks ago was a 'record latest freeze'. There have been freezes later than that. I just showed 1966, 1983, and 2020 (there are probably more examples).

25 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Sunny 60s here with the trout lilies beginning to bloom.

Snow total for 25-26 (barring something very unusual) is 6.8".  That's 1.8" BN, currently the closest to my average in 28 snow seasons, with only 2012-13 (90.4", 2.0" AN) being close.

I'm going to assume you meant 86.8

PHL Summers since 2010

Below 1981-2010 average (75.9)

2014 (75.7)

2023 (75.8, although JAS averaged 76.1, which is above the 1981-2010 average)

Above 1981-2010 average, but below 1991-2020 average (76.7)

2013 (76.6)

2017 (76.4)

Currently, the 2001-present average is 77.2, which would put 2018 (76.9) below it. Depending on how warm the summers of 2026-2030 are, last summer (77.4) could end up below the 2001-2030 average.

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

15-16 actually peaked at 1.97 in August:

2015    8     0.99      1.43       1.97
2015    9     1.04      1.48       1.80
2015   10     1.04      1.51       1.91

7 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

2023 - Yes 

2015 - Warm summer, warm winter

2009 - Cool summer, cool winter

1997 - Yes

1991 - Warm summer, warm winter

1986 - Cool summer, cool winter (1987 - Warm summer, cool winter)

1982 - Yes

1972 - Yes

1965 - Cool summer, cool winter

1957 - Cool summer, cool winter

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

4 out of the Top 8 happened in developing strong el nino years.

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Obligatory "if only this was winter". 

Thing is, no one can say that after the winter we had. There was plenty of cold and snow to go around this past December, January, and February. 

I really love the Makai Lemon pick. I believe we got the best receiver in the NFL Draft. Lemon should have went ahead of Jordyn Tyson.

53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't the 18-19 Niño like really weak sauce, though?

Yes, it was pretty much a disjointed el nino, which just lingered around in the weak el nino/warm neutral phase until late 2019/early 2020, before eventually going into a solid la nina (which lasted until early 2023) and -PDO (which is still ongoing).

As I pointed out earlier in the New England thread, 2026 is a polar opposite of 2020 (as we are exiting a weak la nina/cold neutral phase and heading towards a strong to super el nino, and maybe transitioning to a +PDO):

14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Wonder if this will be like 2020 where things flip to a torch around Memorial Day? Then again I lived out in Milwaukee at the time so I'm not sure how it evolved here but I assume it was similar.

Probably not. This year is probably the polar of 2020. That year, we had an ending weak +ENSO that transitioned into a solid la nina, and a developing -PDO. This year, we have an ending weak -ENSO that looks like it's transitioning to a strong, if not super, el nino, and an ending -PDO/developing +PDO.

Plus, 2019-20 was a very warm and virtually snowless winter that turned cold in April into May, while this winter was cold and snowy, that turned warm in March, and flipped to a torch around Daylight Saving Time.

Happy Draft Day!

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Patriots take at 31?

Does AJ Brown get traded?

Draft Day today! Temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow.

Any pingers this weekend?

Who does the Eagles take at 23?

Does AJ Brown get traded?