PhiEaglesfan712

Come to think of it, we really haven't really had an arctic outbreak in the mid-Atlantic/Northeast in the 2020s decade. The last one that could qualify as one was the one in late January 2019, but that was for about a few days. Before that, late December 2017/early January 2018. But the last real sustained arctic outbreak was 2015, which lasted for the greater part of 3 months (January-March). I still can't believe the Aetna lake in Medford, NJ was frozen in late February/early March.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)?

no

Slight opposite correlation actually

The Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino for pretty much the last 2 years, ever since the 2023-24 strong el nino started in the summer of 2023.

If we were to get a strong or super el nino in ENSO 3.4, the Nino 1+2 is going to really go off the chart like in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Yeah, they need to like cut that 140 ACE in half. It's shaping up to be a low activity season, like 2013 and 2014. This was my forecast in mid-June:

11 named storms (range 8-14)

4 hurricanes (range 2-6)

1 major hurricane (range 0-2)

51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these

3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I still want to get a really strong east-based La Nina at some point.. but it may be very dry. El Nino's are for sure much wetter. 

But we all know that an east-based la nina has close to zero chance of happening, with Nino 1+2 being in a solid el nino state. I feel like the next strong/super el nino is going to take 1+2 off the charts, like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

But not in Atlanta, where they had a ~4.5” (major) snowstorm in early Jan, the biggest since the 3/1993 blizzard.

Even New England had the one snowstorm that made the season memorable, on 1/19/2002. Who could forget about the Tuck Rule game? I mean, Raiders fans won't care that the winter of 2001-02 was one of the warmest and least snowy winters in New England, all they'll remember is the one night it snowed that winter and their team getting screwed by that call.

Even this year in Philly, we didn't get a snow season. But we did get that memorable snowstorm on that Sunday we played the Rams in the playoffs.

I mean, it was only fitting that the torch winter of 2001-02 ended with an early season heatwave in mid-April, as a cherry on top.

I'd argue the extreme winter warmth started in 2011-12. That's around the time the frequency of record low seasons picked up in Baltimore and DC.

Baltimore

DC

However, if you take a closer look at the last 2 years, you'll see an increase in snow. I wonder if this is the start of the tide turning, or if it's just a tease.

But it's important to note that Baltimore and DC have seen snow the last 2 years, especially in 2024-25. That didn't really happen much from about 2016-17 to 2022-23.

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd kill for 2016-2017 right now...featured about normal snowfall and I haven't seem that since 2017-2018.

Maybe in your place it was about normal snowfall, but in most places, especially Philly on southward, it was a well below normal snowfall winter. For Baltimore and DC, it was a Top 10 least snowy winter. Plus, it torched from November-February, with very little snowfall during those months. Only March was colder than average and had above average snowfall. Easily one of the most depressing winters ever.

Besides, I'm pretty sure either 2020-21 or 2021-22, depending whether you're inland or on a coast, was better than 2016-17.

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. 

So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season.  Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows. 

16-17 had a very sharp cutoff right around PHL, which had 15 inches of snow that year (which was even below the 18-19 total). DC and Baltimore had about 3 inches of snow the entire winter, which puts it as one of the Top 10 least snowiest winters for those cities.

I personally don't want that type of season again. The next time, the cutoff may be further north, and it may make 01-02/11-12 look like child's play.

AMJ ENSO (ONI): -0.1C

AMJ RONI: -0.49C

June PDO: -2.51

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm going with a colder than average March, and probably above average Dec-Feb. 

Oh gosh, I hope not. There is nothing more depressing than that combination. I'll take a colder than average January, December, heck even November or October. Even a 2011-12 type winter would be better than this. A colder than average March after an above average Dec-Feb would be a complete waste.

Since 2010, the only summers that were below the 1981-2010 average here at PHL were 2014 and 2023. However, June 2023 was significantly cooler than September 2023, and if you used JAS 2023 instead of JJA, it would have been above the 1981-2010 summer (JJA) average.

JJA 2014 (75.7) finished .2F below the 1981-2010 average, and JJA 2023 (75.8) finished .1F below the average. JAS 2023 was 76.1F, which would have been above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super. 

And it was only for a month. It needs to sustain +2.0 for multiple months to be considered a super el nino. That was only done in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

Plus, the RONI only reached +1.5 at its peak, which is not only significantly lower than the 4 super el nino years (all of the above years reached at least +2.25), but also lower than every strong el nino year (1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-88, 1991-92, and 2009-10).

Not to mention, the MEI was only a borderline weak/medium el nino. (Of the strong el nino years, only 2009-10 has a comparable MEI peak to 2023-24.)

2023-24 is a strong, but not super, el nino.

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place

"The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015."

So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this -PDO taking shape

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Made it up to 101.5F. Hottest I can remember in quite some time. Seems like most heat waves we’ve had the last decade underperform because of the humidity. This event had the mixing out of moisture that made the triple digit heat widespread. Pretty historic event! 

July 22, 2011 is the gold standard when it comes to widespread triple digit heat. Newark reached 108, and the Lehigh Valley even got over 100 (which rarely ever happens).

The 100-degree drought at PHL is over: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1937572239236305000

PHL temp at 10 is 93, one degree warmer than at this time yesterday.

92 at PHL at 10 am. If we go by the 10+10 rule, PHL should top out at about 102 today.

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

1981 - A young woman from Lubbock, TX, was struck by lightning. The bolt of lightning struck just above her right shoulder near her neck, and passed right to left through her body, tearing her warm-ups, causing her tennis shoes to explode, and lifting her two feet into the air. (The Weather Channel)

How is this even possible?

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer:

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65

2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

On 6/19/2025 at 8:26 PM, Hurricane Agnes said:

Speaking of flying cows, I expect that Birds was out in that flying with the cows! 

10 hours ago, BBasile said:

Yes, I cant wait!!  

It's officially Go Birds season when we see this in the forecast.

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1881 Larry

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.