PhiEaglesfan712

4 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I wasn't trying to claim the NW has had some epic snow season - just that the bottom part of the smiley outline will fill in now. The circled area. It's been far too warm in the Northwest for meaningful heavy snow anomalies. Even within that context though, you can still see the general shape of what I outlined held up, despite the warmth. This southern portion of the storm track pattern will shift north somewhat in Feb-Apr and some of the West will do better in that time frame. I'd imagine CO will catch up a bit then.

How does this compare to the winter of 2014-15?

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Our best storms always have some non-snow in the mix.

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

12 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends. 

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me. 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday.

If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

Please keep the storm south. I have to travel up north to Vermont on Sunday. I'd much rather it hit North Carolina. My nephews (4, 3 on Sunday, and 5.5 months) have probably never seen a snowstorm before, and they'd probably welcome it. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms, and don't really need it right now.

14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Recent coldest at EWR last 25 years:  Bolded 5 and below

 

The 2 in Feb 2012 has to be a mistake. I don't ever remember it getting anywhere near that cold at any point during that winter. 

2005

2016

I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years.

El Nino

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-87/1987-88

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

La Nina

1955-56

1973-74

1975-76

1988-89

1998-99

1999-2000

2007-08

2010-11

Which of these years did the PNA not hold?

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's pretty clear that it's not at this point. You don't get an epic mid atl stretch in latter January in a canonical front loaded La Nina winter. I think it's time to let that go.

Yeah, if it was a front-loaded la nina winter, then the warm-up that started on 1/6 would have stuck. 

12 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Who do you think the Eagles would've had a better shot beating the Rams or the Seahawks? Something to really think about and analyze. I can't decide.


.

The Rams. The Eagles have beaten every NFC team at least once since 2021, except for the Seahawks.

50 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This winter is nothing like 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. We hear comparisons to those winters almost every year. Those there Nearly countrywide blockbuster winters. Aside from the Midwest and northeast, winter never arrived this year for most of the US. Warm and dry as far as eye can see. 

Only East of the Mississippi. Those were record warm winters in the Western US, especially 14-15, but that one was a +PDO winter.

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly

This isnt a typical La Nina. Its a weakening one.

22-23 was a weakening la nina, and that one torched in January and February.

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

45 inches in Richmond? That would set their seasonal record in a one week period. Unlikely but there's always a first for everything. 

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Could be looking at the first back-to-back winters (in at least my 24 year old memory) where Barnegat Bay completely freezes over. 

Last year we had ice 6" thick, enough to get the ice boats out for some racing for the first time since 2018. 

Did it not in 2013-14 and 2014-15, when we had impressive cold? The nearby lakes in my area (Aetna Lake in Medford, NJ) was completely frozen over in late February/early March 2015.

22 minutes ago, jerseyshorewxguy said:

also PD 2023


.

I think you meant 2003. PD 2023 was a torch, lol.

2 minutes ago, Irish said:

I don't like the common thread there, more often a little too far south. 

Also, all of those happened during el ninos, with the 1966 and 2010 ones in strong el nino. Even the 1978 one had a borderline weak/moderate el nino.

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Latest HRRR looks pretty good for round 2 tonight

lol at the 1.7 in Virginia. Looks like there will be snow in the Patriots game. Almost reminds me of the Tuck Rule game, except that one randomly happened in a winter that was otherwise abnormally warm and non-snowy.

If Philly, Baltimore, and DC don't get a major snowstorm in the next week, a new low 10-year rolling snowfall record will be set in those places. The 2016 snowstorm officially goes off the books on Saturday.

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best. 

Yeah, the last time the west was record warm (in 2014-15), at least there was an easy explanation: It was a strong +PDO winter, with a warm neutral/weak el nino. Easy to see in that configuration why you would get a record warm west and a well below average east.

With the current configuration (-PDO/-ENSO/-IOD), there really is no reason why the west should be breaking their 14-15 records. You're not going to get anywhere near record cold in the east (like we did in 14-15) with that configuration.

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

That failed el nino played a huge role in getting us the super el nino in 2015-16. If that el nino is stronger, then the super el nino never happens, and the PDO likely doesn't flip to positive in the mid-2010s. The years leading up to the super el nino shows us that a +PDO is probably more important for a cold/snowy winter than the el nino itself.

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Shows up really well on the rankings too, with almost every station out there seeing its warmest winter to date.

This looks like a +PDO winter map, almost like 2014-15.