PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

any hints on the warmth for March?

Above temperature departure seems like a lock. We're in a dissipating la nina, and headed into MJO Phase 4 after this weekend's event. Plus, there is very little cold air to work with. These ingredients set the stage for a warm first half of March at least. 

10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines. 

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm.

NYC

Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0

Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7

Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6

May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Mud season is in full effect. 

No, that was just the snow getting slushy and melting. My sister and I went for a walk on Monday afternoon. Someone didn't clean their pathway, so my sister walked slowly and carefully on it because she didn't want to get her sneakers dirty.

I'm starting to think February 23, 1987 is a good analog for this storm.

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:

 

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its west of 0z.

The wave to our north ruins the big coastal . It lingers which dappens the heights. This had huge potential . Hopefully things change.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

yep, starting to think its curtains on this one

It feels like curtains on the winter. With the sun angle increasing, it's only going to get tougher to get the cold air necessary for a snowstorm.

12 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I’m going to lmao if this verifies. So much for 70s the first week of march.

 

9 hours ago, RedSky said:

March 1st on today's euro

spring warmth-NOT

More Alaska

 

 

These will not verify. The problem is that there is limited cold air, and the increasing sun angle. I guarantee there will be more >60 highs than <40 highs during the first week of March.

No way we see a temp of 25 at 1 pm on March 3 in NYC. That's like record low territory.

1 minute ago, snowwors2 said:

Wrong…

That was issued Feb 13‼️

 

That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

The CPC disagrees, as the first half of March looks warm:

I'm not sure if anyone posted this yet, but the MEI for January was -0.8

28 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

MA forum starting to get concerned. apparently the GEFS suck

 

I never thought it would be a MA storm, and that's probably is a good thing for NYC and PHL. If this turns out to be a MA storm, then NYC and PHL will get close to nothing.

1 hour ago, Blue Dream said:

That one sucked here...white rain all day and ending in a burst of heavy snow that night if i remember correctly.

Yeah, the further south you went, the more disappointing the storm was.

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

February 2010 - a not too shabby snow month.

Amazing how the snow was pretty much all in the first 10 days. The pattern totally flipped in March, and of course, we had record warm temperatures during the entire spring and summer.

45 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The MJO is gonna be in phase 3/4 by this storm period. I’d temper the excitement and brace for a model change 

Phase 3 is still cold in late February. I think exiting 3/entering 4 is the sweet spot for a snow event, though the pattern should change for the warmer after the event.

55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum   "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

11 hours ago, Heisy said:

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

41 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Historical Storms of note

We do it again a month later. 1957-58 was a historical snow season. 2009-10 might have beaten it in terms of total snowfall, but the cold and snowy weather lingered a lot longer in 57-58. 

In 09-10, winter was long over by the time we got to the vernal equinox, and we were already 90 degrees by the first week of April. We didn't get that until at least late June, maybe early July, in 1958.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What happened to the warmth

I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed.

36 minutes ago, BBasile said:

This morning marks the third week of solid snow cover.  Was the snow cover even around this long in 2010?  

I don't think so. The winter started to flip after Snowmageddon. I believe we had a rain storm the 22nd, and one small snow event on the 26th. After that, it was essentially spring. (By the time we got to the first week of April, we had 90 degree temps on the 6th and 7th, completing one of the most impressive weather flips ever.)

I think 2014 had a better chance of the snow staying that long. That was a year that we got snowstorm after snowstorm from the beginning of January to mid-March.

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

The result is going to define the rest of the season. If we do get the 6-10 inch snow solution, I feel the winter might stay a little longer. If it ends up being rain or nothing, then I think the winter is winding down.

2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June.

We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions  one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. 

Just a forecast could be wrong we will see.

Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.