PhiEaglesfan712

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Max so far

New Brnswck: 104
EWR: 103
LGA: 102
JFK 100
TEB:100
NYC: 100

 

PHL is at 101

Reading 102

ABE reached 100 (first 100 since July 22, 2011)

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

First 100 since July 2011. Could see a second one in a row tomorrow.

Yeah, NWS Mt. Holly no longer has to tweet about Lehigh Valley Airport not reaching 100 degrees since 2011. They can just focus on tweeting that average temperatures are ~2F warmer now than in 1925.

4 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

IIRC there was a 130 heat index at Newark that day

That's probably right. PHL's heat index was 129 and dewpoint 82.

Now, it's time to see if ABE or Wilkes Barre-Scranton get to 100. ABE last hit 100 on July 22, 2011, and Wilkes Barre-Scranton last hit 100 on July 15, 1995.

Yep, triple digits is a sure bet for almost all of the region. Today is going to rival 7/15/1995 and 7/22/2011.

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

noon Round up hot town summer i the city

 

New Brnswck: 100
JFK: 100
EWR: 99
ACY: 99
BLM: 97
TEB: 97
PHL: 97
LGA: 96
NYC: 96
TTN: 95
ISP: 92

Yep, CPK is going to hit 100 today, as is almost the rest of the region. This is going to rival 7/22/2011.

Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010.

Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.

3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

77F/DP 75F at 6:05am

*Philly at 79F...won't go below 80F tonight.

Official low at PHL was 80 per the 6-hour obs. We're going to challenge the 83 set in the 2010 and 2011 heatwaves.

4 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

92 per mesonet. 100 seems inevitable.

First time since 2011 that we're going to get widespread 100s. Even in 2012 and last year, when there were 100s in the region, not everybody hit, and there was a chance it would just miss. But today and tomorrow look like no doubters for almost all of the region, like 7/22 and 7/23/2011.

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December.

If the monthlies still say cold when get to the fall, then that's the time to start paying attention. I know strong and super el ninos usually mean warm winters, but if the monthlies are still showing a cold signal for winter in the fall, then you know something is up.

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah EWR has to hit 107+ for the park to hit 100. My call is 98


.

Then, it's going to be a very, very rare event. EWR has only hit 107+ once (108 on 7/22/2011).

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).

Which year between 10-11 or 11-12 had a very strong Arctic warming?

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.

1997 was close to neutral

2004 was close to neutral

2018 was a modest +QBO. I'll give him that one. That was a meh December (and winter overall), not an all out blow torch, like the other 5 +QBO/el nino Decembers.

NWS has 103 on Thursday, 104 on Friday, and 101 on Saturday for PHL.

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Backlash nina period won't be good for some of us either so...emotional capital for the year (or two) after? Lol

Our last backlash nina period had one great snow season (2010-11) and a 5-month torch from November-March (2011-12).

6 hours ago, Albedoman said:

The formation of Derechoes are a good possibility in this pattern. 

If Derechoes happen, widespread 100s, and some places will get to 105, on Thursday and Friday. Remember in 2012, when this area got widespread 100 and DC got to 105 after the Derecho.

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country. 

What if I told you that the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century happened during a strong el nino year? And we did it with Nino 1+2 being close to neutral?

But for there to be a cold winter in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic in a strong or super el nino, one would think the record warmth would be centered on the PNW or even southwest Canada (like in 2009-10, when record warm temperatures affected the Winter Olympics in Vancouver).

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.

Yeah, the only time a robust el nino held for two years was 1986-88, and that el nino dissipated quickly in the 2nd year, setting up the stage for one of the strongest la ninas on record in 1988-89. Prior to the mid-2010s el nino, it was almost a certainty that a strong or super el nino was followed by a strong la nina starting from 1972-73:

1973 - Yes

1983 - No (but we did get a multiple-year la nina, which peaked in the high weak/low moderate)

1988 - Yes

1992 - No (but a major volcano happened, and that might have screwed things up)

1998 - Yes, multi-year strong la nina

2010 - Yes

Of course, 2016 and 2024 weren't followed by a strong la nina. Do we think it will happen 3 times in a row that we don't get a strong la nina after a robust el nino?

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

@PhiEaglesfan712

If true, 2027-28 is going to challenge 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina. Both of those followed robust el ninos, and broke relatively long (over a decade) strong la nina droughts. Remember, we haven't had a strong la nina since 2010-11. 

Strong La Nina: 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11, (2027-28)

17 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Wonder if it will rival July 1995? And yeah, imma gonna say it…

You know how that following winter turned out! 

July 2011's heatwave rivaled July 1995, and the following winter (2011-12) turned out to be a blowtorch with almost no snow (outside of the October freak storm).

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010

The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match. 

-PNA is another promising sign for this upcoming winter. 2009-10 was a -PNA, as well as 1957-58 and 1965-66 to a lesser extent.

If we can get the -NAO/-PNA/near neutral PDO combo, like in 2009-10, this winter may be decent.

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

Strong la nina in 2027-28 if this verifies.

PDO in developing strong/super el nino years

1957 -1.31 -1.57 -0.83 -0.81 -0.02  1.53  0.59  0.34  1.84  1.72  1.54  0.46

1965 -0.95 -0.61 -0.17 -0.01 -0.66 -0.76 -0.74  0.32  0.83  0.30  0.47  0.25

1972 -2.12 -1.95 -1.53 -1.70 -2.16 -1.84 -1.48 -0.11 -0.20 -0.22 -0.05 -0.37

1982  0.11 -0.19 -0.37 -0.70 -1.21 -0.99  0.12 -0.08  0.51  0.15 -0.60  0.16

1986  1.04  1.47  1.68  1.21  0.85  0.62  1.05 -0.19 -0.03  1.00  1.68  1.71

1991 -1.80 -1.09 -1.11 -1.63 -1.65 -2.25 -1.57 -0.58  0.37  0.41  0.56 -0.21

1997  0.44  0.29  0.39  0.73  1.59  2.55  1.49  2.27  1.80  1.78  1.48  0.99

2009 -1.81 -1.78 -2.06 -2.23 -1.32 -0.73 -0.71 -0.49  0.33 -0.13 -0.94 -0.51

2015  1.51  1.52  1.33  0.90  0.32  0.82  1.41  0.98  0.97  0.84  0.17  0.29

2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

 

Closest years were:

2021:

 

1991:

We can probably ignore 2021, since there was no el nino.

1991, with the robust el nino, is probably the better analog. That one bucked the trend, and was an extremely warm spring and summer in the Eastern US. The thing about 1991 was that there was a major volcano in mid-June (which screwed things up), and don't have that (yet) this year.

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last -10 month in the Northeast during February 2015 got much more attention than most of the +10 months since then have.

And don't forget, in that -10 month of February 2015 in the Northeast, there were places in the West that had +10 temperature departures to balance it out.