PhiEaglesfan712

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.)

From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023.

1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record.

All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.5° (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Don't you mean April? And I think these temperatures are severely underestimated. This April looks like it's going to be near record warm.

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA:  91 (2010)
JFK: 87 (2010)

It's amazing how quickly a pattern can change. Not even 6 weeks earlier, we were wrapping up a very cold and snowy February. Almost like what we have this year.

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Pinger squall


.

This can't be. Pinger season has been done for 2 months now.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas.   Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur.  

Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that.   Where is this extremeness coming from ?   

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super):

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987)

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

That April 1982 snowstorm showed just what could have been. If not for a long lull in February and March, 1981-82 could have been a historic snow season. But the April storm was a nice reminder of that cold and snowy pattern in January 1982.

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.

Global temperatures seem to bottom out around 1917 (following a super la nina), at about -0.2 lower than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial mean. If we use 1917 as the zero point, 1.5C would have been first breached in 2016, and the global temperature anomaly for 2024 would be at +1.8C.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

What was that Easter in the 90s where it was warm and sunny and the next day we got like a foot of snow?

I believe it was 1997. I remember Easter Sunday, March 30, being warm. Then, it snowed on Monday (3/31) and Tuesday (4/1).

JFM 2026 RONI -0.7

JFM 2026 ONI -0.2

10 hours ago, kdxken said:

Stupid UConn women.  The men held up their part of the bargain (so far). Oh well, the living room's not that bad. 

 

I'm hoping that UCLA wins the Women's National Championship. This program last won a National Championship in 1978, before the Women's Tournament existed. Plus, Lauren Betts and the seniors deserve to end their careers with a title.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Need some serious CAA for the Park to go below 30 this late. Suburbs that radiate well are a different story


.

We did get close on May 9, 2020, and that was following a very warm and virtually snowless winter:

13 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'll believe it when I see it...

It's been like this since about March 8, a coast-to-coast torch.

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November. 

The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet.

5 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

We have some pretty wild temperature swings coming in the next 3 days. All of these look to happen in the span of just a couple of hours.

Warm front tomorrow: 50s -> 70s

Backdoor cold front Saturday afternoon/evening: 80s -> 50s

Warm front Sunday morning: 40s -> 60s

Cold front Sunday afternoon: 60s -> 40s

Something weird is going on. I haven't seen this many temperature swings like this year. 20 degrees is normal, but there have been many 30, 40, and even one 50-degree swing so far. That isn't normal. I really hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one day, and then 60 the next, in June or July. If I wanted this type of weather, I would move to Nebraska.

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

ECM has snow shower activity Tuesday

 

Where? Vermont? NH? Maine? Because there isn't any snow happening anywhere near here.

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only 10 days away on an OP run - what could go wrong ???

All these torches since early March have hit, though.

39 minutes ago, FPizz said:

didn't they change the location though?  philly runs very high all the time.  rainshadow (Tony Gigi) who used to post here years ago and worked for mt holly for years still makes fun of their temps.  I'll take a real met over the wannabe's in here any day.  

The last time they changed location was late 1930s/early 1940s, I think. Before that, it was in Center City.

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Do we then cool down after that warmup late next week, as has been the pattern?  Or do we get sustained warmth finally?  Have to wait until early next week to see what ensembles show IMO.  Takes some time to kick BDCF season around here.

The EURO shows sustained warmth coast-to-coast (see @bluewave's post in page 2). We've been in that pattern since early March.

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The craziest thing is we were the cooler region compared to most of the country. The amount of +10-15 readings is insane. 

If that happens during June or July then it's gonna get ugly. 

If that happens, and the heat dome is centered somewhere around Death Valley, the American/global temperature record of 134 degrees could finally fall.

9 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

More chilly weather next week is fine with me but we can't spin up some kind of nighttime system with precipitation for an inch or two of wet snow? Should be plenty cold aloft. What a boring end to a really cool winter. I hope we get three weeks like tomorrow before the summer blow torch develops by Memorial Day. 

There hasn't been plenty cold aloft since at least early March. I was in Vermont for 3 days (March 7-9), and it was 55+ each day. I knew winter was essentially over at that point. And that's okay, as sometimes, the coolest winters end abruptly. Look at 2010 (after February) and 2015 (after March), for example. 2010 had (at the time, it was broken only 2 years later) the warmest spring on record, and 2015 had a near record warm May.

The Euro is also showing a torch pattern mid-month, coast-to-coast.

PHL was 84.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0530 PM EDT WED APR 01 2026

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET, WHICH WAS FIRST 
SET IN 1917 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1978.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA DATE BACK TO DECEMBER 
OF 1873.

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15):

April 1997: +0.59

April 2015: +0.98

We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. 

PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 

I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed.

In case you haven't gotten it by now, winter is over: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No 90s the month as a whole was +1.5 -  +2 and highest was a 3 day strech of 80s mid april.  88 in EWR was the max

Then, there was a huge rainstorm the weekend after (which would have been a snowstorm if it happened earlier in the season).

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Warmest marches and subsequent months dep's:
 

Year	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct
2012	+8.3	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+3.3	+2.5	+1.5	+0.5
1945	+6.8	+1.5	+0.5	+0.5	+1.0	+0.5	0.0	+0.5
2024	+5.8	+2.5	+1.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5	TBD
2016	+5.0	+1.5	+0.5	+1.0	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0	0.0
2023	+4.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+1.5
1990	+4.6	+1.0	+0.5	+1.5	+2.5	+2.0	+1.0	+1.0
2010	+4.4	+2.0	+1.5	+2.5	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5
1998	+4.0	+2.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0
2020	+3.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5

 

This does not look accurate. 2025 should be there, not 2023. Plus, some of those months, off memory, I can tell you should have negative temperature departures.