PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.

I think this is more like 2015, just one month forward. February looks like it's going to be the last month of the cold pattern in the East, just as March 2015 was.

I get the feeling that April will torch in the East, and finally see a cool down in the West, like May 2015.

We never get a cold winter and cold spring in the same year anymore.

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

let's do 90 in April!

I think 2010 holds the record, and that was after a cold and snowy winter, like this one.

17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The didn’t hit 80 in feb 2018? I think it was 2018. One of the feb in the late 2010’s tha completely torched. I swear they hit 80.

77 on 2/21/2018 and 74 on 2/24/2017. Earliest 80 was 3/8/2000. 82 was 3/9/2016. 83 today.

83 at PHL, breaks the old record of 82 in 2016, and is the earliest in the season that we've reached that temp.

23 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Down to just patches of snow cover here this morning.

I spent the weekend in the Catskills.  Snow is patchy at the trailheads (almost gone in spots), but at least a couple of feet remains starting around 2500 feet and more higher.  In most places the snowpack is thoroughly rotted.  It has no structure and if you go off the packed tracks you sink to the bottom with very little resistance.  Some of the trails were washed out rivers on Sunday.  The snowpack there is going to release a lot of water between now and Wednesday.

Yeah, I passed by the Catskills on the way to (Saturday) and from (yesterday) Vermont. I didn't find much snow on the ground level. The snow was still there in Vermont, especially the further north I went (the furthest I went was Weston).

2009-10 is the only one of those seasons that was really el nino.

1993-94 and 2013-14 were ENSO neutrals, and 2020-21 was a deep moderate la nina.

The 1983 and 2016 storms are the only ones that were in el nino.

The 1993 storm was an ENSO neutral, and the 2021 one was in that deep moderate la nina of 20-21.

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

end of march last yr

Yeah, it was March 29. 

7 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

There are exceptions to that reasoning, the most extreme one that came to mind was the blizzard of 1888.  It was unseasonably mild and raining just before that event.

I checked the climate summary, and it looks like it was very cold leading up to the March 1888 snowstorm:

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Skyrockets in flight this morning with Ditty and ORH well into the 40s.

Got down to 32 in this morning:

I'm headed back home for some afternoon delight with temps in the 70s.

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This potential is reminding me of this March storm

Snow storm, March 18, 1994 - Storm Summary

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event:

Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Dont you live in Philadelphia? How do you make these declarative statements for a region you're not even part of. 

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm.

This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

There's a difference between chilly and snowstorm. Temps in the 40s, probably. But if you're holding out hope for snow, it's probably not going to happen. Almost always, snow after March 15 is accompanied by cold before it. We don't have that now.

On 3/6/2026 at 6:30 PM, cmillzz said:

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

You might have to go to the Southern Hemisphere for it, lol.

27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC day 10 looks like  March 1958 

Nope, nothing alike. The high temperature for the entire month of March 1958 was 54. We're at 72 on the 2 pm EDT observation. There isn't going to be a historic snowstorm around the vernal equinox.

A wild ride here in temperatures. Still very warm:

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

You realize that’s perfectly possible with a back door cold front right? ENE wind off the ocean. Somehow I doubt Vermont is seeing a heavy marine influence 

Vermont is more influenced by the mountains. But there has a been a wild temperature swing the last 12-18 hours. From 58 to 40 and now back up to 54 at 7 am. Still well above average for this time of year at that latitude, and quite a contrast from negative temperatures following the late January snowstorm.

If you're still holding out hope for a snow event, it's time to let go. The only people in the Eastern US that may see a wintry precipitation event going forward is in Northern New England, I'm not even sure they will get one.

Mid-50s in Vermont:

I'm here until Monday morning.

4 hours ago, Chadzachadam said:

Winter holding on for dear life. Still haven’t made it out of the 40s this week…maybe this evening

If that's true, then it's warmer where I am in Vermont. I'm seeing mid-50s:

11 years ago:

February 2026 PDO is -1.01

This is the 74th straight month with a -PDO value.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is going to suck.

Not really, recently all of our cold/snowy winters seem to be consecutive: 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05; 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11; and 2013-14, 2014-15.

10 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You need to have quite a few things come together for a solid March snow. Not saying it can't happen, but more elements need to be in place. 

I remember a few solid April snows one not too long ago. 

Yeah, you need a lot of cold air in place. In the years when we had big snowstorms post-March 15 (1956, 1958, 2018, etc.) there were many days with below average temperatures (mostly in the 40s and even 30s, as well as at least one snow event) leading up to it:

We just don't have that coming up this year. We have temps forecasted in the 60s and 70s. I have a feeling anyone holding out hope for more snow is going to end up disappointed.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you related to snowman19? You have been wrong on everything this winter. 

No, but anyone with common sense knows that there won't be 2 snow events post-March 10. That's only happened once ever (in 2018), and temperatures had cooled long before that. We won't get 2 snow events after this warmup.

Besides, I haven't been wrong on everything this winter. I did say December would be below average temperaturewise, and I called this March warmup at least a month in advance.