PhiEaglesfan712

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

On the other hand, the weak-negative-ENSO/strong -QBO matches that are working out really well (1989, 2005) did flip to a +EPO pattern in late Dec that lasted all of January. We are following those analogs closely right now, but I do think that 90N High pressure tendency may overcome the sustained warmth that those analogs saw going later into the Winter. It is interesting to see the long range models flip warm though, which happened in those years. 

The big difference between the 1989 and 2005 analogs is that we got the flip back colder in February 2006. We even got a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I can see this one happening again (you could even argue that we already did in 20-21).

With 1989, there was no going back to winter once the calendar flipped to 1990. Spring pretty much began in January that year. 89-90 is a once-in-a-lifetime analog that will never happen again. It should be retired.

27 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro too. Looks like they both want to really dig the s/w with that clipper. Definitely something to watch.

If it's a clipper, you can forget about it. The last time a clipper panned out in this area was on January 22, 2005, and that was over 20 years ago now.

47 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

The cold really caught me off guard this morning after it was pretty pleasant yesterday afternoon. Wind chill of 12 on a cloudy day is pretty brutal.

Also on the topic of recent winter snowfall performances, 2020-2021 was well above average for a lot of people in this thread. I lived in Conshy at the time and we had 4' but I think the cutoff was pretty sharp from NW to SE

Yeah, those north and west got the snow in 2020-21. The sharp cutoff south and east showed the warmer storm tracks that season. However, in many of the areas south and east that had below normal snowfall in 2020-21, they did better in 2021-22, when many of the storm tracks were colder and closer to the coast in January 2022.

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

The only time we really had a colder storm track was in 2017-18 and January 2022. Other than that, the classic storm track with a sharp cutoff south and east has been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (that was even the case in many of the 2021 storms). That appears to continue this year. This doesn't bode well for snow lovers in coastal areas, like Atlantic City.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

P.S. How do you know winter already sucks? Just take a gander in our obs thread 

Just look at the storm tracks, and all the sharp cutoffs south and east. It's been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (with the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022.) If you live in a coastal area, like Atlantic City, you're not going to see much snow this year.

4 hours ago, BBasile said:

I want a big East Coast storm!  lol.  I'd also be happy to dink and dunk my way to average.  You're right, though.  Winters do suck anymore.  Especially for us to the south and east of Philly.  It's like the 09-10 winter was the exclamation point on good winters.  No más.  

13-14 and 14-15 were really good winters. In 2015, I passed by the Aetna lake in Medford in late February/early March, and it was still frozen over. We don't even get a hard freeze anymore, much less that late in the season.

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is no warmup mid December.  Where are you getting that info from ? The warmups in the long range have been fake so far.

Definitely agree with that. Plus, December 2023 was warm all the way through. Kind of like 2015 and 2021. All of those years had a regression to the mean in January, with snow and near normal temperature departures.

This year we have a cold December so far. We just need a snowfall, or otherwise, we might have a similar situation to December 2022.

49 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Just in time for a mid month warmup, as was a bit expected, but hopefully it doesn’t become like the infamous December 2023 jet extension where we roasted for the rest of the month 

December 2023 was an all-out torch. Plus, it was in strong el nino. It's nothing alike to what we have now.

The cold air is there this December. We just need a notable snowfall.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

I keep waiting to wake up to good news or potential but nope...

If we don't get any snow by the end of December, then I think it maybe time to give up hope. I can't remember a time when we had a good snowy rest of the winter after a cold and low snow December. Almost always, January and February torched in years like that.

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I posted in this thread like 4-5 times a long time ago that weak-negativeENSO and strong -QBO has this strange coincidence of having super cold December's. 1989 and 2005 were examples. QBO is a stratosphere index so I didn't want to make the physical connection, but mentioned that it would be something if it happened again. And sure enough, it did happen again. This December is looking like one of the coldest in the eastern 1/2 since 2005. 

December 2010 was colder than December 2005, at least where I live.

If we do get colder than 2010, then 2000 would be next:

Come to think of it, there's a weird coincidence that -ENSO Decembers in years that end in 0 or 5 (doesn't matter the strength) tend to be very cold in the East:

48 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

The pattern we have coming up does not have many historical matches comparing it to past Decembers. I'm not exactly sure how to generalize it, but to me it almost appears that the lower latitudes portion of the pattern (say 25-40 N) is shifted east of where you would expect it given the polar configuration. It's a strange to, for example, have robust ridging for 2/3 of the country downstream of the -WPO block like we see days 10-15 in current guidance. I think this may be related to the strong Pacific jet disrupting what would otherwise be a better pattern. 

December 2016 and December 2022 seem like the best matches. We have a lot of the elements of those seasons this year: -ENSO, deep -IOD, la nina background, and strong Pacific jet. Plus, a cooler December. If we don't get the snowstorm, then I really like the 2016-17 and 2022-23 analogs even more (sorry Team Snow).

The only places I think that will do well in the East are places like upper New York (Buffalo to Albany), Vermont, and northern New Hampshire/Maine. Places near the coast are going to have a tough time getting snow.

All of a sudden, the skies have cleared. I see a lot of blue sky out there.

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive to see so many 12"+ days at Washington, DC. Dayton, Ohio, even a bit further northward, has only ever had one such day in all of recorded history (January 25, 1978). So their streak looks like one seemingly endless streak following by a second seemingly endless streak.

I'm pretty sure January 23, 2016 was the last 12"+ snow day in DC. The final measurement was 16, maybe 17 inches, but many people believe it was an undermeasurement.

Apparently 5829 days have passed since then.

1984-85 and 2021-22 aren't good analogs because they had torch Decembers. In fact, both winters only had one really cold and snowy month (January). I'd go as far to say that 84-85 is the colder climate version of 21-22.

January 2016 was 5829 days ago already? Dang, I'm getting old, lol.

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

DC has 1” before NYC or BOS even has measurable. Who would’ve had that on their bingo chart in a Nina winter. 

It might be the start of a trend. DC and Baltimore have been doing better than PHL/NYC/BOS since 2023-24. Then again, there was nowhere to go but up after the snow dearth in DC/Baltimore from 2016-17 to 2022-23.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2002:  

 

Dec 5

 

 

2003

 

Dec 5:

 

 

2005

Dec 5

The last real clipper I remember was the one on January 22, 2005. That one, of course, turned into a Nor'easter.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

It's called regression to mean. Especially in a warming climate, it's hard to string together several below average temperature months in a row. Do not be surprised if there is a torch in January and February. That's been a staple of -ENSO/deep -IOD years in recent times (see 2016-17 and 2022-23).

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

In our current "warming climate" 3 of the last 4 months have been below normal.....

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region.

But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice looks like the call for a trimonthly of ~ -0.6 was a good call. Should continue to rise from here slowly. Unfortunately I do not think this will be an 'official' La Nina based on ONI numbers but darn close like last year. Still liking my call of about the week of Christmas into the new year being the warm up time frame leaving the tail end of phase 8 into 1.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2000 Central park was above average snowfall for the season. 2008 close to average snowfall and a lot of ice. 2007 pretty bad for them.

2000-01 may have finished with average snowfall, but the way the season ended, with that epic snow bust in March, made that season feel like a disappointment.

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55

SON 2025 RONI: -0.85

November 2025 PDO: -1.67

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.