PhiEaglesfan712

MEI just updated. ND 2025 came in at -0.8

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are you smoking?

The temperature departure for January is going to be near normal by the end of today, if not tomorrow, in many places in the East, with the warmup just starting. I don't see sustained cold anywhere in the near future. We may not end up the absurd positive temperatures of January 2017 or 2023, but January should end with above average temperature departures in most places in the East.

For the first time since November, I'm using my fan. I can feel it getting warmer...

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a rapid, total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @GaWx @PhiEaglesfan712

16-17 and 22-23 were my favored analogs at the beginning of the season. I always felt that December was going to be on the cooler side (this verified), but January and February were going to be warmer (looks like that's what's happening).

[As I'm typing this, I'm using my fan for the first time since November. It's getting warm already!]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place!

Baltimore had 80 inches of snow in 2009-10 (might I add this total was reached by 2/15... the temp reached 90 by 4/6), and 0.2 inches of snow in 2022-23.

PHL had 78.7 inches of snow in 2009-10, and trace in 1972-73, as well as 0.3 inches of snow in 2019-20 and 2022-23, and 0.8 inches of snow in 1997-98.

6 hours ago, bncho said:

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

There's no way you all can be calling this the biggest mid-winter la nina collapse when 2022-23 literally happened just a few years ago. That year, you had a deep multi-year moderate la nina to begin the season turn into an ENSO neutral by winter's end, and later transitioned into a strong el nino the following season.

We barely had a la nina this year.

I think everyone in here would be up for a moderate el nino, with a neutral or +PDO.

Just now, roardog said:

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

59 minutes ago, roardog said:

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo.

However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.

December 2025 PDO: -1.01

Record 72nd straight month (and completes 6 straight years) of negative PDO values:

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.67 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.32 -2.37 -1.54 -1.01

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Define "well above average"....if you mean like +5F, I don't think you're getting that anytime soon.

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19:

15-16 - November, December, March

16-17 - January, February

17-18 - February

18-19 - None

19-20 - January, February, March

20-21 - November

21-22 - December

22-23 - January, February

23-24 - December, March

24-25 - November, March

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.

Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. But Jan as a whole may not end up cold if the -PNA returns midmonth. If not, that breaks the cold streak.

We've been in a cold streak for the most part since August. We are well overdue for a well warmer than average month.

I'm not really mad about last night's loss. I'd much rather the loss yesterday than next week. If the Eagles had won last night and lost next week, it would have been all for nothing. At least if the Eagles win next week, then everything is forgiven.

It's not like we had a perfect home season to defend. (I'm still a bit annoyed that we lost the last game of the 2017 season to the Cowboys before winning Super Bowl LII, but it's been forgiven.) Besides, we kept the 11-win regular season streak alive, and have a chance to tie 2000-04 next year.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MEI is back....

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

-1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated: 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A large portion of the West had their warmest December on record. But none of the areas in the East that were cold approached their coldest December on record. This has been a common theme in recent years with the warm departures being more impressive than the cold departures on a month to month basis. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 

 

10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026

Everybody can

 

Climatologist49

 

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The month-to-date temperature departure from normal for the Contiguous U.S. is +3.9F. If this is how the month ends, December 2025 would finish as the 4th warmest December on record (1895-present). 4 of the top 5 would include 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's as if something has changed.

11:47 AM · Dec 29, 2025

Everybody can

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

57 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

those never work out. we would need a phase but those never worked out in my experience 

Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

12 hours ago, RedSky said:

Forgot about 2000 that was -9.7F

And December 2005 with 14"

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As noted in the general ENSO 2025-2026 thread, the forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. 

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, that storm is king for me of sheer intensity and thunder snow that morning. 

The January 26-27, 2011 snowstorm compares. That was an overnight snow, but I remember the intense thunder snow keeping me awake.

13 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Ouch, March 29, 2025 wins the game!

That was the best weather day of the year. I'm sure everyone enjoyed it, well except MJO812. Bring on 80s and sunny any day over the slop we got this weekend.

14 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Sometimes guidance can correctly latch onto big cold blasts or warmups far in the distance. I remember how well the January 2019 cold blast and early February 2019 cold blast was forecast. Got down to near 0 here in NYC. Down near -30 in Chicago. Very impressive cold blasts that winter 

That was the last real cold blast in the Eastern US. That was also the only winter in the last decade (since 2015-16) that didn't have a uber warm (+5.0 temperature departure) month in the November-March period.

If we don't get a torch month in January, February, or March, we would really be bucking a trend.

48 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I also can't get out was counting on the ice driveway on a steep hill melting. May be the first time iced in since 1994

I was iced last January, as well as in late February/early March 2015.