PhiEaglesfan712

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Blazing out in Southern California but i suspect they will soon be much wetter later this month

 

SoCal records, Oct. 2–4

October 2

• Downtown LA: 103°F — new record, old 101°F
• Long Beach: 103°F — new record, old 98°F
• Burbank: 102°F — tied record
• Santa Ana: 105°F — new record, old 101°F
• Anaheim: 103°F — new record, old 101°F
• San Diego: 95°F — new record, old 94°F
• Chula Vista: 99°F — new record
• Vista: 100°F — new record
• Escondido: 105°F — tied record
• Newport Beach: 85°F — tied record CBS News

October 3

• Downtown LA: 104°F — 4°F short of daily record 108°F (1987)
• San Diego: 105°F — new record, old 104°F (1987)
• Oceanside: 105°F — new record, old 94°F — smashed by 11°F
• Fullerton: 105°F — new record, old 103°F
• Escondido: 108°F — new record
• Ramona: 105°F — new record
• Riverside: 106°F — new record
• Santa Ana: 105°F — near-record territory
• Santee area: 112°F — one of the hottest readings anywhere in the U.S. that day; the national high reported by NOAA/WPC was 112°F near Santee. WPC NCEP

October 4

• San Diego: 100°F — new record, old 97°F
• Burbank: 101°F — new daily record
• Camarillo: 99°F — new daily record
• NWS Oxnard: 99°F — new daily record

No surprise here. It's quite common for September or even early October to be the warmest time of the year on the California coast.

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

14 hours ago, RedSky said:

kick the field goal they still lose

 

Yeah, the right call was to go for it. What was wrong was the play call. The Eagles had total control of the game up until that point.

14 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thinking of the Great Atlantic Coastal Storm of March 1962 storm I researched a bit. The Atlantic was active in 1961 then relatively quiet in 1962 (least active since 1946.) El Nino didn't appear until 1963. Another 1962 storm, less well known to those of us in the East, was the Columbus Day Storm, the most devastating in Oregon history. 

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic.

Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I have to remind myself that we still haven't had a single hurricane form even after we broke the record on September 11th. It's October 2nd now and no hurricanes in sight. Absolutely unbelievable to still be seeing this. We really might get through this entire season without a single cane.

And here I thought that back in 2013, when we had a season with no hurricanes greater than C1 strength, that something like that would never happen again.

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. 

I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done. 

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one.

I thought the historic storm was in March 1993, not in December 1992. I always remember the winter of 1992-93 this way: (1) my youngest sister being born (December 29, 1992), then (2) her baptism (late January 1993), and finally the snowstorm (mid-March 1993).

I don't remember the storm happening first (in December 1992). I found this storm (which was right before my sister was born), but it appears further south: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=128

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new LGA update shows much longer delays than earlier with the quite strong winds along with lingering light rain/fog:

 LAGUARDIA ARPT LGT RAIN 61 59 93 NE30G47 29.54R FOG

 

Due to WEATHER / WIND and WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 1 hour and 43 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination".

Delays by Destination:  Due to WEATHER / WIND, departure traffic destined to La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA) is currently experiencing delays averaging 1 hour and 43 minutes.

General Departure Delays: Due to WX:Wind, traffic is experiencing Gate Hold and Taxi delays between 1 hour and 1 minute and 1 hour and 15 minutes in length and increasing.

 

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time.

This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow?  I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months.

Don't overthink this one. Just look at the Ash Wednesday storm and the Blizzard of 1993, both of which happened in March, outside of the Meteorological winter months. If it happens in January, we probably get something worse than those.

I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993?

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

Early November 2022 and 2024 also had temps in the 80s. All 3 of those years were +QBO:

Nov 2020: +11.15

Nov 2022: +12.45

Nov 2024: +13.78

I have a flight at PHL on Saturday night to Italy. I hope the storm holds off until at least then. If it doesn't, I might be stuck there for a while.

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988.

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5H is sick. Man give us this late January 

That happened this past winter.

[Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

What's even crazier is that not even 10 days after that snow, it was back to record highs and temps in the 80s/close to 90 in some spots to end the month.

14 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

1986-7: moderate Nino

Although that el nino collapsed very early in the second year and led into the very strong la nina of 1988-89. I suspect if we got a 2nd year el nino in 2027-28, something similar could happen and we could get a strong la nina in 2028-29 instead.

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

This short paper from 2007 (attached) from Chris Landsea of NHC summaries well the issues w/ "missing" TCs in the Atlantic.

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900

From the paper:
In particular, Landsea et al. [2004] esti-
mated an undercount bias of zero to six
tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and
1885 and zero to four per year between 1886
and 1910. These undercounts roughly take
into account the typical size of tropical
cyclones, the density of shipping tracks over
the Atlantic basin, and the amount of popu-
lated coastline. As one goes back further in
time, the numbers of ships and shipping
lanes decreases and fewer people live in the
tropical and subtropical coastal regions.
These factors make it increasingly likely that
some tropical cyclones would not be
counted the farther back in time examined.


I like how he compared 1933 to 2005, which is #1 and #2 for most ACE in a season.  Look at the gap out in the cntrl and ern Atlantic.  The 20 storms in 1933 I bet is at least 5-8 too low.  We saw what happened in 2005 when everything went "right."  We were getting late- season oddballs Oct-Dec often cntrl and ern Atlantic, and that season redefined what we call a TC and expanded what was possible!

He said that as to hurricanes from 1851 to about 1940, anywhere from 0 to 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic were likely missed in any given year, w/ the avg being likely close to 1.  Meaning that 1914 probably had a hurricane, just never detected.  When you see something like Fay recently, and tiny systems like Oscar even when not in the middle of nowhere, you see how the probability is quite high here.

It is fascinating stuff to look at history and do "sleuthing!"  The Hurricane Reanalysis Project displays this best.  I wish other agencies would do this for TC basin worldwide.  There is *lot* of data out there that could be gathered, analyzed, and much to be found. 

And you do not have to go the far back.  Full geostationary sat coverage did not exist in the western Pacific until 1987 and not until 1989 over the IO.  However, for over 25 years up to this point, we had plenty of polar imagery, and as I mentioned, the delays in transmission of polar imagery in those days was several hours or more, so it could not be used operationally to assign proper TC intensity.  It's the main reason why if you want to look at trends for TCs in the IO, you really can't start until 1990, and by extension, global TCs are well.  The SIO is the second most active basin globally for ACE per year.
 

landsea-eos-may012007.pdf 457.5 kB · 0 downloads

Definitely agree that we need to take the earlier seasons with a grain of salt because the technology wasn't as good. For 2005, we can say for certainty that the ACE value was between 245 and 250. [In 2024, I did a calculation on this season, and it came out to be 247.65, which is #1] 1933 has a wider variance, between 213 and 258. [In the same 2024 calculation, I got 235.785, which is #2]. I actually think the 258 value from NOAA is an overestimate.

Here are the Top 11 ACE seasons from my 2024 calculations:

1            2005      247.65

2            1933      235.785

3            1893      231.0738

4            1995      227.5513

5            1950      227.1413

6            2004      226.94

7            1926      225.7788

8            2017      224.8775           

9            1961      196.95

10          1998      181.8838

11          2020      180.3725

As for 1914, the mid-September storm was the biggest one for that season (that was almost Hurricane strength). I believe they did a reanalysis in 2005 (oddly enough, the most active season), and they couldn't find anything more. There might have been another one or two more storms, but I'm almost certain none were as big as the mid-September storm.

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A record breaking east based Nino is a death sentence.  

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Hey guys I think it might be high time to start thinking about a 2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino Part 2

topic! This puppy is going on nearly two hundred pages lol.

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina.

The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Any idea what the record is for longest streak without a TC in the Atlantic in September?

I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16.

[The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]

FWIW: The last 3 even years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all had record 75+ warmth (at PHL) in early November. All of these years had a +QBO.

Nov 2020 QBO: +11.15

Nov 2022 QBO: +12.45

Nov 2024 QBO: +13.78

lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)