PhiEaglesfan712

All of a sudden, the skies have cleared. I see a lot of blue sky out there.

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive to see so many 12"+ days at Washington, DC. Dayton, Ohio, even a bit further northward, has only ever had one such day in all of recorded history (January 25, 1978). So their streak looks like one seemingly endless streak following by a second seemingly endless streak.

I'm pretty sure January 23, 2016 was the last 12"+ snow day in DC. The final measurement was 16, maybe 17 inches, but many people believe it was an undermeasurement.

Apparently 5829 days have passed since then.

1984-85 and 2021-22 aren't good analogs because they had torch Decembers. In fact, both winters only had one really cold and snowy month (January). I'd go as far to say that 84-85 is the colder climate version of 21-22.

January 2016 was 5829 days ago already? Dang, I'm getting old, lol.

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

DC has 1” before NYC or BOS even has measurable. Who would’ve had that on their bingo chart in a Nina winter. 

It might be the start of a trend. DC and Baltimore have been doing better than PHL/NYC/BOS since 2023-24. Then again, there was nowhere to go but up after the snow dearth in DC/Baltimore from 2016-17 to 2022-23.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2002:  

 

Dec 5

 

 

2003

 

Dec 5:

 

 

2005

Dec 5

The last real clipper I remember was the one on January 22, 2005. That one, of course, turned into a Nor'easter.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

It's called regression to mean. Especially in a warming climate, it's hard to string together several below average temperature months in a row. Do not be surprised if there is a torch in January and February. That's been a staple of -ENSO/deep -IOD years in recent times (see 2016-17 and 2022-23).

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

In our current "warming climate" 3 of the last 4 months have been below normal.....

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region.

But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice looks like the call for a trimonthly of ~ -0.6 was a good call. Should continue to rise from here slowly. Unfortunately I do not think this will be an 'official' La Nina based on ONI numbers but darn close like last year. Still liking my call of about the week of Christmas into the new year being the warm up time frame leaving the tail end of phase 8 into 1.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2000 Central park was above average snowfall for the season. 2008 close to average snowfall and a lot of ice. 2007 pretty bad for them.

2000-01 may have finished with average snowfall, but the way the season ended, with that epic snow bust in March, made that season feel like a disappointment.

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55

SON 2025 RONI: -0.85

November 2025 PDO: -1.67

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

I remember that one. There was nothing to show for it, just how there's been almost nothing to show for it since all the great winter patterns that have been promised since that winter, 3 years in a row. Looks to be cold but inactive through mid month, and then we have to hopefully obtain 4" of snow in the second half of the month. By then, we have to hope that the mid month warmup isn't too warm for snow. That being said, we can easily have a colder than normal month but with little to no snow to show for it. 

In this warmer climate, it's very hard to get colder than normal months anymore. So when December 2022 went by with very little/no snow, I knew that winter was in trouble. Cold and very little/no snow December is the worst combination in this warming climate.

I'd much have a torch December, like December 2015/2021/2023 because I know that there's at least a chance for it to regress to the mean (unless you have a really bad setup like 2001-02 or 2011-12).

-ENSO and deep -IOD usually favor a cool December, in comparison to the rest of the season. That was the case in 2016-17 and 2022-23. It's January and February when it really torches.

If December ends with <1 inch of snow, then the winter is in trouble. That's what happened at PHL, BWI, and DCA those winters. PHL got lucky with the March 2017 snowstorm, but the snow totals for those seasons are as follows:

PHL: 0.3 inches 2022-23

BWI: 3.0 inches 2016-17, 0.2 inches 2022-23

DCA: 3.4 inches 2016-17, 0.4 inches 2022-23

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t know as the models are already very cold with MB normal in the NE, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest:

6Z GEFS:

 

0Z EPS:

 

 

We need to take advantage of this. If we come out of this with very little to no snow, the winter will be in trouble. It would be like 2022-23 all over again.

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

We did get a good 3-week window of cold and snow between December 23 and January 15 in 1998-99. The rest of that winter (first 3 weeks of December and the 2nd half of January/February) was a torch, though.

15 hours ago, JTA66 said:

We do spring in winter well.

The best example is 89-90. We had the coldest December on record, then the weather turned springlike when the calender flipped to January.

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

23 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro op runs the rain/snow line near route 202 

5-6" the I78 corridor

 

How much do you think for EWR?

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

When does the Soul season start? Asking for a friend.

Sorry, the Arena Football League is defunct. However, the Phillies season begins on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Windy and nippy out there. Birds better use a shitload of Barkley today..... 

 

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

How much snow for EWR on Tuesday?