PhiEaglesfan712

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very warm early June pattern with 90s next few days then a pullback and more 90s next week. As we saw with the early 100° heat back in May, this is warmer going into at least the early summer than past super El Niño events

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year.

I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

13 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

And as if the days getting shorter means it's going to get cooler or something.

Not really, there is something called seasonal lag, which is why the hottest days on most years are deep into July, sometimes in early August.

Besides, the days have noticeably stopped getting longer, especially on the morning side. At night, it is still getting light later. By around June 13-14, most places in this area will have seen their max daylight (it might still be technically getting longer by a second or two, but that's junk change when you have 15 hours of daylight), and that will go on until about June 26-27.

May 2026 PDO: -1.76

MAM 2026 ONI: +0.5

MAM 2026 RONI: -0.1

Eric Webb finally updated his page: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

He considers 2025-26 to be a weak la nina, and 2024-25 to be a 'maybe weak la nina' (borderline cold neutral/weak la nina), and lowered the strength of 2011-12, 2021-22, and 2022-23 to weak la nina (had previously been considered moderate), and upgraded 1892-93 to a strong la nina.

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

Global temperatures will jump, unless we get an eruption of Mt. Rainier (and really soon).

Remember, Pinatubo erupted in mid-June of a developing strong el nino. Prevented a temperature jump from happening in 1992, and in fact temporarily caused a decrease in global temperatures. Also, led to one of the coldest summers on record CONUS in 1992, as well as contributed to the great winters of 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96 in the Eastern US.

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Surprised it wasn't.  Granted it was only a CAT 1 but it caused 5 billion in damage in a heavily populated area.

Idalia (in 2023) should have been retired as well. I guess there must be a shortage of I names that they need to keep them in there unless there is a truly historic storm.

May average temperature finishes at 65.6 at PHL, which is 1.3 degrees above the 1991-2020 average (1.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average).

Meterological spring average temperature finishes at 57.8 at PHL, which is tied for the 3rd warmest spring on record (with 1921, and behind only 2010 and 2012).

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

East based Super Nino + Negative PDO means the anomalies out west last winter will be over us this winter. 

It wouldn't surprise me if we experienced the warmest winter on record and by a lot too

What about a one-month relaxation like 1994-95 (which was a -PDO el nino)? November 1994-January 1995 were really warm and snowless, but there was a cold and snowy window in February 1995, before the warm and snowless weather returned in March. 94-95 ended up very warm and below average snowfall, but at least we got a respectable winter month out of it.

The bipolar weather just doesn't seem to stop this year. It seems like this summer is going to have several 100-degree days, and several 55-degree days as well.

New York Post posted an article about Mt. Rainier possibly erupting: https://nypost.com/2026/05/29/science/most-dangerous-us-volcano-mt-rainier-could-devastate-60000-residents/

This is probably the only thing that can prevent another temperature jump from this upcoming el nino.

Remember that Pinatubo erupted in mid-June 1991, ahead of a robust el nino.

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between.

In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West.

The easiest compromise is to meet halfway, and make it permanently 30 minutes ahead of standard time.

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, it's now time to start the summer thread.

We have a developing strong/super el nino. Such summers are known for producing cooler than normal summers in the Eastern US. Such years include 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Memorial Days in NYC

 

 

Year	Memorial Day Date	High	Low	Rain
2025	May 26	74	53	0.00"
2024	May 27	75	67	0.82"
2023	May 29	80	58	0.00"
2022	May 30	85	64	0.00"
2021	May 31	72	50	0.00"
2020	May 25	73	56	0.00"
2019	May 27	82	65	0.00"
2018	May 28	70	57	0.00"
2017	May 29	62	56	0.09"
2016	May 30	84	69	1.41"
2015	May 25	87	65	0.00"
2014	May 26	88	67	0.00"
2013	May 27	75	52	0.00"
2012	May 28	91	72	0.00"
2011	May 30	87	71	0.23"
2010	May 31	88	69	0.00"
2009	May 25	82	63	0.00"
2008	May 26	81	59	0.00"
2007	May 28	84	68	Trace
2006	May 29	89	67	0.00"
2005	May 30	76	58	Trace
2004	May 31	66	58	0.18"
2003	May 26	58	52	1.11"
2002	May 27	78	60	0.00"
2001	May 28	73	57	0.04"

Can you expand these to 3 days (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday), so I can see the whole picture for the entire Memorial Day weekends? For example, 2021 at 72 and 0.00 rain looks misleading because you had highs in the 50s (probably record low maxes) and a lot of rain on Saturday and Sunday.

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

 

This cold weather is unbearable. Coldest Memorial day I can ever remember.  I have the space heater running  in my office as solar raditonal heat cannot recover  the temps in the house the next 3 days. Still wearing sweatshirts after this last heatwave.  Wll , the landscaping mowing businesses will be loving this weather after the hoilday as they will be mowing everything that grew  a foot high  this weekend.

You must either have the shortest memory ever or you are purposely trying to manipulate things. I love how you just disappear during a heatwave, when the weather doesn't support your agenda. I didn't see you post in early March when it was in the 80s, or in mid-April when it was in the 90s either.

Anyways, you only have to go back 5 years to find a colder Memorial Day weekend (I remember this because I got my first COVID shot that Saturday, and man that was a very miserable weekend):

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

Thanks for the stats! 

So a small one site sample shows:

- 40 years since the last monthly record low.

- 92 years since a monthly record low during meteorological winter.

Since 1998 5 monthly record warm readings but none of those during meteorological summer all were during meteorological winter.  Of course NYC temperatures during the summer are skewed low since equipment was moved from out in the open to the middle of a thicket.

Hard to envision a monthly record low in NYC until the next climate shift to cooler occurs from whatever the cause of that may be.  Volcanic?  Next natural climate shift?  Something more drastic?

Yeah, the fact that no monthly record low was set in the post-Pinatubo years (1992-1996) makes me believe it's never going to happen again. Global temperatures have jumped so much in the last 30 years.

Big Temperature swings this spring

Saturday's high projected to be only in the 50s.

On 5/19/2026 at 2:09 PM, GaWx said:

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, I'm gonna sell on 102/78 at FW6927 Greenville, RI

Is that an all-time record high for the station?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot Providence's earliest 100-degree day was set last year (June 24). 98 was the previous record prior to 6/30 (set in the April 1976 heat wave).

44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It has happened before.  Highest temp in May (maybe even April for someone on here one year?)

Yeah, 1976 was the year when the highest temp was hit in April, during the Easter heatwave, for many spots in New England, and as far south as Philly. Things turned cold very early that season, with October 1976-January 1977 being the coldest October-January on record. (The spring that followed was one of the warmest on record, despite a snow event on May 9-10.)

39 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

Oddly enough, 1991 was a pre-nino May (although there would be the major volcano the following month that made sure the nino event behaved weirdly).

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

About to land in Philly after spending a week in Ireland with mid 50s and a strong breeze. Adjusting to this heat won’t be fun.

You'll be back to mid-50s weather by Saturday. It's been that type of spring.