PhiEaglesfan712

Today is the 5th anniversary of the December 2020 snowstorm. This weekend's snowstorm was the biggest December snowstorm since then.

30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal 

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

3 hours ago, bncho said:

Genuinely curious--could you provide some examples?

The most obvious ones are the most recent: 2016-17 and 2022-23.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing

I have a hard time seeing a torch in January and February with a neutral enso going into el nino.

In case you forgot, here's what happened the last time a dissipating la nina led into an el nino:

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Based on what?

Previous years with similar ENSO/IOD/PDO patterns. They tend to have cool Decembers, but torch in January and February.

3 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself. 

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

16-17 was generally a torch in January and February in the Eastern US. It just had a very odd distribution of snow. It was the snowiest season ever in Syracuse (almost 160 inches). But places like Baltimore and DC only got ~3 inches of snow. Talk about a very sharp cutoff.

08-09 is another weird one. Despite how cold October-January was, it would have went below average on snow without the KU on March 1-2.

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MJO still hadn’t gone back into 8 as of 12/12 with it technically still in a very weak 7 per the record: so, 12/8-12 in very weak phases 5-7 essentially neutral with it not far from the center

Looks like it's completely in the center. That's a bullseye if we're playing darts.

World News Tonight got the year of the last December snowstorm wrong. It was in 2020, not 2018: https://x.com/ABCWorldNews/status/2000383451434774960

You would think this would be fact-checked before a major news organization like ABC airs it.

9 hours ago, Voyager said:

What happened when the calendar flipped to January in those years?

1995-1996 -> That one was a wall-to-wall great winter.

2000-2001 -> Okay winter overall, but left a very sour taste with the huge snow bust in March.

2005-2006 -> Very mild January, but a return to winter in February, highlighted by the snowstorm on the 11th-12th. March is mild.

2010-2011 -> Very cold and snowy January, turns milder in February, although a moderate snowfall happens around President's Day. No more snow after that, but we do get one last hurrah of well below average temperatures in late March.

2020-2021 -> January has no snow and above average temperatures until the last day of the month. February is cold and snowy. March is mild.

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Feels like December 2005 the level of cold is the same. Had a 10" snow on the 5th that year and a couple small ones the first half of the month.

 

 

It seems like all the la nina/-ENSO years that end in 5 or 0 are cold in December. See 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The only one one that wasn't cold was 2020, and we got a snowstorm mid-month.

Heck, even Atlantic City is getting snow. That's been hard to come to by the last 7-10 years.

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2010 - The "Pineapple Express" - a meteorological event where southwest winds bring warm, moist air to the U.S. West Coast - produced record rainfall to the Pacific Northwest during December 11th-12th. Seattle experienced record daily rainfall two days in a row. The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded 1.42 inches of rain on the 11th, breaking the old daily record of 1.32 inches set in 1955. The next day, 2.19 inches fell, breaking the daily record of 1.70 inches set in 1966. The Stillaguamish River in western Washington state reached 21.06 feet at Arlington, tying the record set in November 2006. Flood stage for the river is 14 feet. The storm system also brought record warmth to the area. On December 14th, the temperature at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport reached 57, breaking the old daily record of 55 set in 2004. (NCDC)

If I remember correctly, the eastern end of the storm produced heavy snow, and caused the Metrodome roof collapse. The Vikings game got pushed back, but it wasn't enough to save the Brett Favre streak. 

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

9 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t agree. Yes, the deep -IOD is a warm signal but it has weakened significantly since earlier in the fall, and the other factors are more tilted towards cold than say 89-90. 89-90 was a strong La Niña, this is a weak La Niña. Also, the PDO has risen a lot in recent weeks to weakly negative rather than strongly negative. I will concede that Feb has warmer risks, but think we are getting slammed in Jan. Maybe 1 warm week, but I think we go BN temp with well AN snow in the east, especially for northern areas. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

88-89 was the strong la nina. 89-90 was a dissipating weaker la nina/cold neutral, and was firmly ENSO neutral by the time the winter was over.

The IOD was still at -1.4 on November 24, pretty much comparable to 2016 and 2022, both of which were low snow winters at PHL, and torched in January and February. The mid-March snowstorm in 2017 kept that year from being another below 10 inch snowfall season at PHL, and we all know the disaster that 2022-23 was.

Cold and low snow Decembers are the worst combination. They almost always produce torch Januarys and Februarys. Come to think of it, I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter.

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our yards might be muddy, but rivers and streams are at or near record low flowrates for the date.

The yards being muddy is a good sign. That usually means the drought is coming to an end soon.

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN. 

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

The MEI finally updated. Here are the values for the past several months:

MJ 2025: -1.2

JJ 2025: -1.2

JA 2025: -0.9

AS 2025: -1.1

SO 2025: -1.2

ON 2025: -1.1

Alabama only got into the playoff because of their name. Take away their name, and their resume is no better than teams like Illinois or UConn. Actually, those teams beat the ACC Champion. Alabama lost to the 13th place ACC team.

If Alabama is the playoff, then let Illinois and UConn be in at as well.

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you are correct about a 1989-90 turnaround, that would be astounding. 89-90 saw the biggest, most dramatic pattern flip in the last 50 years. We went from an ice cold arctic tundra in November and December to palm trees sprouting in January and February….

Pretty much all the metrics are screaming at me "warm January and February". I mean, we got a deep -IOD. The last 2 times we had that, January and February literally torched.

89-90 is once in a lifetime, though. We had the coldest December, than turned into spring in January, and winter never really returned.

PHL temperatures (Dec 1989-Mar 1990):

Dec 89: 25.5

Jan 90: 40.3

Feb 90: 41.2

Mar 90: 46.1

A 15-degree increase in between December and January is absurd. That's something you see in between spring months (and sometimes, you don't even get a monthly swing that big).

The Decembers in 95, 00, 05, and 10 all ended up in the 31-34.5 range (and this December may end up not even being that cold), so the turnaround won't be as dramatic.

Why not just run the ball there? We were already in field goal range. The only thing you can't do there is throw an interception.

This is eerily similar to the 2023 collapse. That was the 3rd straight loss, also on a Monday night (in 2023, it was against the Seahawks, which also ended in Hurts throwing an interception).

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Assuming my general idea is right: Cold eventually retrogrades to the West, you should see ice storms, blizzards, and tornadoes (probably in that order) in the Southern Plains later in the winter.

If you're convinced Chuck is right, you had a several nasty ice storms in 1989-1990, as well as in late 2005 in December. There was a warm up I believe in 2013-14 too, with a pretty nasty ice storm in SE Canada at some point in December - don't really remember when.

We did have pretty extensive cold waves at times in Dec 2013 like we're seeing now. But with the even more expansive coverage, you had an almost immediate snap pack to a thaw/warm pattern the following week.

 

This was the height of the Dec 2013 cold snap locally -

2013-12-05	39	19	29.0	-8.8	36	0	0.35	3.5	3
2013-12-06	37	11	24.0	-13.6	41	0	0.00	0.0	2
2013-12-07	33	18	25.5	-11.8	39	0	0.00	0.0	1
2013-12-08	38	18	28.0	-9.1	37	0	0.01	0.5	1
2013-12-09	33	9	21.0	-15.9	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-10	34	10	22.0	-14.7	43	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-11	44	13	28.5	-8.0	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
2013-12-12	41	19	30.0	-6.3	35	0	0.00	0.0	0

Now that you put it this way, 2013-14 qualifies as a textbook wall-to-wall cold winter in the Eastern US. Pretty much 5 months straight of cold. Plus, it was a season that showed early cold, with a colder than average August and September.

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah at some point this cold air will have to ease up. Very few winters have almost wall to wall cold. And in this climate, it’s nearly impossible. All the more reason to capitalize on the cold now and get some snow 

13-14 and 14-15 are probably the closest we're going to get to a wall-to-wall cold winter in this climate. Both years had 4 out of 5 months well below average (November and January-March).

My gut tells me that December will come in cold, but not historic cold like 1989. It will end up in the -4 to -6 range, like 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010.

January and February will probably torch, though.