PhiEaglesfan712

My gut tells me a cold shot on Monday, but no snow. If there is a precip event, it will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and will be primarily rain. After that will be a huge warm up.

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

March 2-3 window still looks interesting:

I think the system ends up further south. We'll end up dry and cold. Even in the areas that get hit by the snow part of the system won't see too much accumulation due to the March sun angle.

12 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I would actually trade one of the upcoming nickel and dime events for another good cold shot. When it snows then hits the mid upper 30s w/sun it's a sloppy mess. Give me some low overcast skies w/highs in the low 20s after a nickel/dime event And throw in some winds and a lost random tumbleweed for good measure...

30f

The March 2-3 event now looks more like a cold shot, than a precipitation event.

La ninas can be warm in February, too. Just look at February 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2023.

I'd much rather have a +PDO than an el nino, like 2014-15. 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In general any El Nino, especially in today's climate of over 1.5 is going to be a fairly mild winter nationwide.   Even 09-10 was not all that cold, it was just narrowly cold enough to snow.

We got a lot of snow in 2009-10, but that winter was short. The spring of 2010 might be one of the most amazing pattern flips ever. It turned warm in March and got to 90 during the first week of April. 

10 minutes ago, A_Status said:

So happy that this storm put NYC over 40" for the season for the first time since 2017-18.  Long overdue.

Didn't 2020-21 go over 40"?

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Family member had to break out the snow shoes on the farm in Farmingdale, NJ

 

What a difference a week makes. Last Monday, my sister wore her sneakers for the first time this season, and we went on a walk around the neighborhood.

Now, we have a lot of snow to shovel. (We've been out at least twice now. Me three times.)

Seeing the snow reports from Providence, those Baltimore/DC numbers are not surprising at all. I think most of us knew from the beginning the storm was going to hit the Baltimore/DC area or Providence/Boston, but not both.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Can't wait for the regional totals breakdown from the NWS
 

Here you go: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/2026004588776829119

PHL - 14.0 (30.0 for the season)

ACY - 16.9

Trenton - 16.4

Mt. Holly office - 20.3

7 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

lol at the snow hole in the northwest corner with only 4 inches.

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The 17.4" includes the February 2-3 amounts.

Yeah, I just realized that. Just the dates are wrong.

14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

18 17.4 Jan 31-Feb1 2021

This should be Jan 31-Feb 3, 2021. The event ended on the 3rd, not the 1st:

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Islip: 29.1". That breaks the all-time record of 27.8" from February 8-9, 2013.

But don't the records start in 1963 or 66? It misses out on historical storms, like 1958. I'm sure either the February or March event would be on there if it extended that far.

15 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Snow has been falling for 27 hours in NYC. Pretty incredible.


.

I think the record is Jan 31, 2021. I know that one went for at least 48, maybe even close to 72, hours.

13 minutes ago, BBasile said:

I think my snowfall total on the season is 29.5", which is the biggest since 09/10.  I'm good with just a half inch more.  Let's go GFS.  

What about 10-11? 13-14? 14-15?

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow Islip airport 28! All timer I think 

Yeah, that's a record, but I believe the por starts in 1963 or 1966, so storms like February and March 1958 aren't accounted for in there.

29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Damn! I'll see if I can return all those "It Can't Snow in MJO Phase 3!" t-shirts I had screened printed.

Who told you that? I could have told you that was false. Phase 3 is the coldest for February.

I just hope the final snow total crosses 14 inches at PHL, to get to 30 on the season. If it stays under, you can almost bet there will be no more accumulating snow this year.

1 minute ago, Mo Snow said:

My sister's car in Carteret NJ

Thank goodness we already scraped off the snow 1.5 times already.

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would say the last major model miss was 1-25-00 when the 12z runs the day before were all offshore with no snow for many places that got record snow. 

lol, the opposite of 3/4/2001.

6 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

I used to run a poll asking something along the lines of would you rather get 9" and be in the jackpot, or 12" when Boston gets 20", and the results were heavily in favor of 9" and the jackpot.  I appreciated the honesty.

So basically, for my area, it would be this: 

I was in the jackpot for the top storm, but I got higher amounts on the bottom (but the jackpot was to the East and North, a classical Nor'easter).

Just now, The Iceman said:

I trust the NWS Mets at the office know how to take measurements over whoever the fuck Ginger Zee is.

She's a chief meteorologist for ABC, along with Lee Goldberg.

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Not high at all, the deform band pivoted right in that area. Also lol at implying the NWS is measuring high…

FWIW, Ginger Zee's tweet (at around the same time) had Mt. Holly at 16 inches.

Just now, LVLion77 said:

AC is a bit lower than I would have predicted. Perhaps PA, NJ, DE actually underperformed overall vs a number of the catastrophic level forecasts? I cannot see wrap around Snow giving much more meaningful accumulation in the region. New England does seem to be getting hammered. I’ll be interested to see the final totals up there.

The 19.2 at the Mt. Holly office seems a bit high, considering where PHL, Trenton, and AC measured.

Islip is going to set a new record snowfall, but to me, the list feels incomplete with the por not including 1958. I wish their por started about 10 years earlier.