PhiEaglesfan712

14 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Sometimes guidance can correctly latch onto big cold blasts or warmups far in the distance. I remember how well the January 2019 cold blast and early February 2019 cold blast was forecast. Got down to near 0 here in NYC. Down near -30 in Chicago. Very impressive cold blasts that winter 

That was the last real cold blast in the Eastern US. That was also the only winter in the last decade (since 2015-16) that didn't have a uber warm (+5.0 temperature departure) month in the November-March period.

If we don't get a torch month in January, February, or March, we would really be bucking a trend.

48 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I also can't get out was counting on the ice driveway on a steep hill melting. May be the first time iced in since 1994

I was iced last January, as well as in late February/early March 2015.

11 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

In February 1983, we still had a few inches of icy snow left from a moderate snowfall the week before the blizzard.  Of course the melt out following the blizzard was epic.  Excellent lasting snowpack in both 2014 and 2015. Even 2001 was decent.

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Can you imagine what a heating bill would look like these days with a mean monthly temp of 25?   Have to believe it would cause hardship for many.

We don't even need to go back that far to get a mean monthly temp of 25. That happened in February 2015, part of a 3-month period (January-March 2015) that was the coldest post-1980.

3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Thank god that’s over. Just a brutal storm to track and experience. My least favorite in recent memory.

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

21 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Thanks for posting data like this. 25 mean temp in 1876 is wild. 

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March. 

35 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

13-14 definitely was a good December too iirc. No biggies but several nickle and dimes.

Great wall-to-wall winter, actually. Technically, 17-18 and 20-21 also had above average December snowfall.

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

2009-2010 think the last time. 

Didn't we get the Boxing Day snowstorm in 2010-11?

11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

“What happens in December, the winter will remember.”

We can hope.

I thought the saying was November... December is already part of winter.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No way we have to wait until Jan 19 as per drought man. Models are starting to hint at some threats first 10 days of January, one of which being a legit Miller A (as depicted currently that will probably change). 

If we don't get one by January 19, then we're going to have to wait a long time for the next snowstorm. I get the feeling we're going to see above average temperatures by the time we hit mid-January. -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years don't go all the way through December and January cold. That's something that happens in a +ENSO or +PDO winter.

3 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I just got home from my train to Babylon, easily 4”. Reading this thread at my job, I was shocked. I thought it was 60 and sunny out. 

I can't wait for days when it's 80 and sunny out. March 29 was easily the best weather day of this year.

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

NYC people...remind me again what this 4" snow record chase is? Longest without a calendar day 4" snowfall?

NYC has not had a 4" snowfall since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15).

Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)

45 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Increasing clouds red sky east losing the sun.  25f humidity 52% dewpoint 10f wind NNE 12 mph 

expecting 1.1” of snow followed by sleet 0.4 then freezing rain 0.1.

Those are my expectations. 

lol, this obs is way too cold. I can't wait to see obs posts like this again:

"Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am."

"77F

Trash cans went dancing"

"Am actually sitting at 82 at post time."

"81F

With the clouds, low DP, breeze...not bad at all out there."

"80F"

"Had a couple raindrops then a pretty cool sunset.

Maybe some showers late tonight / early morning? 

74F/ breezy"

"We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM"

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

Temperature departures like this is something you see in a +ENSO or +PDO season, not a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. There is definitely going to be a pattern change in January. At a minimum, either the Western US will turn cold or the Eastern US will turn warm.

16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Rooting for nyc to cash in so then we can all win come January. 

That has no correlation. NYC cashing in on a snowstorm doesn't mean everyone is going to win come January. For all we know, DC could end up with a final season snow total of 3-4" (see below).

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That depends on where you were.  Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one.  Allentown had 17”.  Places in upstate NY measured into the feet. 

That season had one of the oddest snow distributions ever. Places in upstate NY finished the season with over 150 inches of snow, while places like Baltimore and DC finished with less than 4 inches of snow.

3 hours ago, penndotguy said:

Pretty amazing 2days ago I thought there was no chance this would trend N with the blocking that was forecast but I’ve been around here long enough to know  i should’ve known better than to trust any models 4-5 days out. By days end this will be a nothing burger for this sub forum. 
Merry Christmas

Sometimes, the models get it right. The best forecast this year was from the Euro (and just about every other model than the GFS) locking in the March 29 warming event 4-5 days out. (The GFS showed temperatures in the 30s instead.)

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I started in late August when it was in the upper $30's with physical silver. Been buying ever since. I never got into the metals because of the transaction costs (dealer reduced prices, ebay, etc), but I have no intent on selling. It's going to children/grandchildren, so I don'tcare abouttransaction costs. But I do believe we go higher from what I see with all the sovereign hoarding, especially China. And then it's been added as a critical metal. Too much more to mention here.

Just like a weather pattern, these things can really turn on a dime. I thought gold and silver still had a lot of room to grow in summer 2011, but that was the peak, and the price went down for years. (Thank goodness I didn't buy.)

28 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah I was thinking the same about the pre mature storm thread, maybe tomorrow would’ve been better but whatever. I’m down for a swing and a miss with this mess. 

I'm down for days like March 29, 2025, when it was 80 and sunny.

On 11/15/2025 at 5:36 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

On this date in 2020, tornados? 

I don't think so. That was the day my brother and sister-in-law got married. I remember it being 70 and sunny in the morning, maybe a little breezy and cloudy in the afternoon during the ceremony, but no tornado.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time in a while that the 11-15 day ensembles have had this much of a warm bias in the East. 
 

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

This map is very reminiscent of fall/winter 2010-11. Of course, we had a very relaxed Pacific jet that year, which explains why we went cold in the East all the way through December and January, despite their being a deep -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. Even when things moderated out in February and March 2011, those months weren't particularly that much warmer than average. (We eventually got the warmth that year, from April-July.)

We don't have a relaxed Pacific jet this year (at least I don't think), so I'd be shocked if went cold all of January. I expect a reversion to the mean, and a torch to start at some point in January, continuing into February.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Do you check the models ?

Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow.

40 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday? 

They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it.

Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area.

It looks like we go warm by the 2nd week of January, which makes sense, considering we haven't had a December and January go all the way cold since 2010-11: