PhiEaglesfan712

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No 90s the month as a whole was +1.5 -  +2 and highest was a 3 day strech of 80s mid april.  88 in EWR was the max

Then, there was a huge rainstorm the weekend after (which would have been a snowstorm if it happened earlier in the season).

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Warmest marches and subsequent months dep's:
 

Year	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct
2012	+8.3	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+3.3	+2.5	+1.5	+0.5
1945	+6.8	+1.5	+0.5	+0.5	+1.0	+0.5	0.0	+0.5
2024	+5.8	+2.5	+1.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5	TBD
2016	+5.0	+1.5	+0.5	+1.0	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0	0.0
2023	+4.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+1.5
1990	+4.6	+1.0	+0.5	+1.5	+2.5	+2.0	+1.0	+1.0
2010	+4.4	+2.0	+1.5	+2.5	+3.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5
1998	+4.0	+2.0	+1.5	+2.0	+2.5	+2.0	+1.5	+1.0
2020	+3.8	+1.0	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.5	+1.0	+0.5

 

This does not look accurate. 2025 should be there, not 2023. Plus, some of those months, off memory, I can tell you should have negative temperature departures.

6 minutes ago, w1pf said:

o rly?

What in the Mid-Atlantic forum is this?

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot:

 It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified

It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified

It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified

 

I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI.

Sources:

Euro progs

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 

ONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

 

Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time.

I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino. 

A moderate el nino would be nice for a change. We haven't had a true one since 2002-03. Closest we had was 2006-07 (but that stalled at 0.9 on the ONI and RONI) and 2009-10 (but that went over 1.5).

Moderate el ninos seem to be the sweet spot for good winters in the Eastern US. The only one that didn't really pan out was 1994-95, but that was due to a -PDO, and even then, we got one good month of winter weather (February).

March is going to be the first widespread AN temperature month for Eastern US cities since September. October and November were NN, and of course, December, January, and February were solidly BN.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

If the PDO turns positive this year, then 1988 becomes the obvious anti-2026 log.

In the East, 1988 was a very warm summer, followed by a very cool fall.

2 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

It was always obvious this was going to be a very warm spring tbh, but some people kept trying to hang on to winter for as long as possible.

I mean, I called this back in early February. I just knew the cold pattern wasn't going to last forever. 3 solid BN temperature months is the most we can get at a time. The last time it happened was in January-March 2015. April 2015 is when things turned warmer, and May 2015 was a near record warm month.

It looks like the same thing is happening.

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right- and part of my reason for mentioning is because there've been pretty much   0   milder weekend days, so far. 

as far as i can personally recall that is.  All the warm/ish anomalies have been week days.  Looking for the first no-snow-on-ground 70 F day with light wind on the weekend

March 7 weekend was a warm anomoly. I was in Manchester, Vermont from March 7-9 (Saturday-Monday), and it was 55+ each day. The only time I saw a frozen ground was going up to Weston on that Monday morning, before going back home.

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

April may end up being a month long inferno.   No blocking appears to be in the cards

I've been saying May 2015 is a good analog for April. Second month after the end of a cold and snowy winter, and a possible budding strong el nino.

What this board needs to do is remove the attachment quota (like The Weather Forums does), or at least put it high enough that we don't have to remove our old attachments on a regular basis.

33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It has been, just not on the weekends haha. Like today going to the upper 60s low 70s for the next few days. Welcome back to the work week! 

The last 6 weekends (before this past one) were warm.

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I keep watching the last two minutes. So many “what if’s?”

Not even just the last 2 minutes. 3:24 in the first half, Duke was up 44-25. They never score the rest of the half. If they score even 2 points in that 3:24, they would have won. It's the little things in the game, which may seem innocent at the time, that end up being the difference.

The snow season is officially over: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Been a very warm March

I can't say I'm surprised. I predicted warm March and April at the beginning of February. I just knew that the cold was going to end at some point. We had 3 solid BN temperature months. The last time it happened was January-March 2015. April 2015 turned warmer, and May 2015 was near record warm. Also, sometimes the cold and snowy winters just come to a sudden end. Just look at 2009-10. After February, things just got warmer in March and temps reached 90 in the first week of April.

14 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Yes, sir- Seen the debate from time to time. Understand your opinion.  If we merge and continue to 'represent"- might work out as a more integrated entertaining/educational forum- such as the New England forum has acheived- despite it being hundreds of miles in breadth- but united across 6 states.  We could pull that off, too- given another attempt. 

If it were up to me, I would merge the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia, and NYC into one region, and do it like this:

New England - CT/MA/VT/NH/RI/ME

NY/PA/NJ

Mid-Atlantic - DE/MD/DC/VA/WV

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD

What about +PDO?

23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. 

That one was weird, and really didn't behave as an el nino, due to a major volcano. Pinatubo actually caused a temporary decrease in global temperatures. If not for that, 1992 would have probably would have been another global warmest year on record (at the time), after a 3rd strong el nino in 10 years.

Pinatubo caused the summer of 1992 to be one of the coldest on record CONUS, and longer term, the cold and snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 in many places in the Eastern US.

As for modoki el ninos, 2009-10 is probably the only strong el nino that's a modoki.

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We talk fondly of the 2010-11 winter but it pretty much ended on 2/1. We had a great run this year. 

That one had a reprise during the final third of March, before going for good. Some people are probably holding out hope we get one final cold shot, and even a little snow, like that one. But it just doesn't feel like it's going to come. This feels more like 2009-10, which wrapped up in late February, and never really looked back.

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1998 had  5 inches of snow i NYC  (previous winter total was 0.5 inches and would have made 97/98 the least snowy season until this storm)

Then, the monthly record for warmest temperature was broken at the end of the month.

2022/23 would have also ended below one inch if not for a late February snowfall.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Worse. More like their version of 2001-02. The warmth out there has been off the charts

Both were punctuated by early season heatwaves: 2001-02 in mid-April and 2011-12 in March.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

They have been wrong all winter. Although I think they might be right here.

They've been right about March, though.