PhiEaglesfan712

28 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

What do you think will happen in March?

Temperatures will moderate out, and I think it will at least be closer to normal, if not above average. We've strung 3 straight well below average months. I highly doubt we're going to string together a 4th. That hasn't happened in a long time.

31 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This winter has been just as severe as 13-14 and 14-15!

Even those moderated out. 14-15 even turned in a near record warm May after the cold winter.

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

March will not only average at least 5 degrees below normal, the park will not hit 56+ the entire month!

Unless the sun is replaced with something smaller, this isn't going to happen.

January and February were cold, and we avoided averaging 5 degrees below average in either month (we're at -5.1 so far in February, but it looks like the last week will at least be warm enough to avoid). Also, March hasn't average 5 degrees below average since 1960, and there hasn't been a March that failed to reach 56 once since 1906. Yes, not even in the historically cold years of 2014 and 2015.

The Devils should have traded for Quinn Hughes. Not making that move really sank the season.

3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

That was the early March 2001 one where there were TWC maps with 3 ft in these parts, right?  That was astounding and might as well have said 8 ft.  How close to the expected start time did it become apparent that it would not be happening?  Also, wasn't that another case where it was on the radar a week or six days out, then the models lost it, then it was back on the radar 4 days out but in a somewhat different form?

Lastly, that was 25 years ago next week.  Good God.

 

If I remember correctly, it was never apparent that it would not be happening until the event was in progress. I think they rolled with that forecast all the way through.

The sad part is that if the storm even verified halfway, 2000-01 would have been remembered as an all-time great winter, with 50+ inches in NYC and 40+ inches in PHL. Instead, that winter is remember as a bust, and not as fondly as the great winters of 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05 that followed.

10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Insanity… when was the last 2” qpf storm in Philly? Has to be since the summer. Even 1” qpf  has been hard to come by of late. That fact makes me nervous.

Last 2" - 5/13 to 5/16/2025 (3.11 inches over 4 days)

Last 1 " - 1/25/2026 (our last snowstorm)

Before that was 12/19/2025 (our warmest day this winter)

14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Thing is, it was a decent winter. But because of that debacle, it’s not fondly remembered.

Yeah, then 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05 soon followed, and left 00-01 in the dust. If that 3/5/2001 storm even verified halfway, 00-01 would have been remembered in that great series of winters in the first half of the 2000s (with the exception of the obvious dud in 2001-02).

51 minutes ago, BBasile said:

I actually can't remember the last time I was under a blizzard warning.  

In my area, I think it was February 10, 2010. Before that was February 28, 2005 (this one didn't really pan out, though we did have the NFC Championship storm earlier that year) and then January 7, 1996.

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Been a while since we've had a long duration event.

I think it was the January 31, 2021 event. That one went at least 3 days, maybe even into a 4th.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

3" depth

 

 

Is this still slush or now mud?

51 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I’m fine with Hurricane.  He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been.  I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between.  The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. 
This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here 

I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño.  It is time.  Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010. 

2009-10 was technically a strong el nino, as it went above 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI. So our last moderate el nino was 2002-03.

22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’d up it to 6-12” for the LV. I think we get into the heavy banding for at least a few hours tomorrow night. I don’t buy the models that completely miss us with it.

Can see that happening. If that does happen, I could see 12-20 inches as far west as the I-95 metro area.

Just now, JTA66 said:

If I misunderstood your post, apologies. I read it to mean most of us are whining because not everyone is forecasting a foot or more of snow in our backyards.

But I think most of us appreciate the delicate set up and realize there is bust potential.

 

Can definitely understand. Until there is actually snow on the ground, there is always bust potential. (March 2001 should have taught us that.)

I just learned over time to be grateful for all types of weather as they come to you because you just never know when that's going to come again.

Sorry if I do come across the wrong way. I kind of feel like an outsider, if anything, as I'm not a meteorologist or anything. I hold a full time job, and do this just for a hobby/interest. I don't get anything extra if my forecast verifies.

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Other than the kid who most of us have on ignore, who’s Debbing? Most of us have been around long enough to know, as Paul likes to say, we don’t shovel digital snow.

He's trying to say I was debbing, but there is no proof of it.

I said this looks a coastal storm, with those on the coast getting the most accumulation. I don't know why @The Iceman is disagreeing.

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 

These people have to be under adult age. I can understand if our last snowiest winter was some time during the 20th century, but who could forget about 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, or 2014-15? Those were at least recent enough that people should remember how cold and snowy they were.

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

At this point I’m confident with 4-8in in the Lehigh Valley and 8-14in+ from Bucks to Philly

Sounds about right, but of course this isn't the popular opinion on this board. It seems like everyone wants to hear 10+ throughout the region.

A cross between 12/26/2010 and 1/28-29/2022 seems the most likely solution.

1 minute ago, wxman said:

At this point mostly looking at model noise.  The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10".  No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup.  Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly.  Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses.   

I think a cross between this one and the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

20 hours ago, RedSky said:

4" slush depth

Don't know how but my base will survive up to Saturday night after the mild period with multiple days of fog

Are you sure there's still slush, or is it mud?

I was in a winery at Voorhees, and can confirm that the snow on the grass is gone, and it is just mud now.

I caught, in passing, 101.5 saying 12-20 inches in some parts on NJ.

33 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks nothing like it

I see a coastal storm, with the higher amounts towards the coast. It looks really close, almost to the amounts.

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Bernie Rayno says 

 

3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

Looks like January 28-29, 2022 all over again.

7 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

Are you tracking the blizzard yet or still focused on 70 degree days in March?

I'm tracking it. I was just answering that person's question. I was just in the office yesterday because I actually have to do work, so I didn't have time to post on the Blizzard thread. I have posted on there in previous days, like Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

7 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I guess starting the spring thread on 2/12 kinda jinxed the whole warm up/torch/winter’s over hype  

Nope, it's going the way I had predicted it. I did say there was a possibility of one big snowstorm during the final week of February, before the winter went away for good in the last days of February/first days of March.

7 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Man is nothing but a fool when it's hot he wants it cool, and when it's cool he wants it hot... always wanting what is not!

I always prefer 80 and sunny, like 3/29/2025. I realize it's just not going to happen all the time. Some days it's going to be hotter, and some days it's going to be colder. But some months have an obvious cold signal and you know are going to be cold heading into it, like this month or March 2015. But just be aware that things do eventually swing the other way. Some of our coldest winters, like 2010, 2011, and 2015, had torch months during the spring. March 2010, April 2010, May 2010, April 2011, May 2011, and May 2015 are all Top 10 warmest months. Do not be surprised if one of this spring's months turn out very warm.

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

How’s 70+ the first week of march looking? Asking for a friend.

Probably not, but temps should be in the 40s or 50s during that week, maybe even a 60.

We should see a 70 at some point in the middle third of the month.

On 2/19/2026 at 3:16 PM, RedSky said:

Early March is still below normal on guidance. Canada quite cold.

 

New maps show first two-thirds of March warm: