PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

I feel like if the PDO doesn't reverse, especially with how big of an el nino we are expected to have, we are pretty much in a permanent -PDO. We haven't had a +PDO winter now since 2015-16, which was more than a decade ago, and is unprecedented. Even in previous predominant -PDO periods, we got a +PDO in there somewhere.

Also, if we don't reach 175 ACE this year, it would be sixth straight year that we don't reach the threshold. Here is a list of longest periods with no hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons:

1. 1962-1994 (33 seasons)

2. 1894-1925 (32 seasons)

3. 1934-1949 (16 seasons)

4. 2006-2016 (11 seasons)

5. 1927-1932 (6 seasons) [2026 would tie this streak, which began in 2021]

The thirteen hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons are: 1893 1926 1933 1950 1955 1961 1995 1998 2003 2004 2005 2017 2020

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

As I said, I'm going to wait until the fall before taking this seriously. If the strong winter signal is still there in September/October, then you know it's going to be a cold and snowy winter. 2009-10 was the last time a strong winter signal held in the fall during a developing strong el nino. Contrast that to 2015-16 and 2023-24, when there was no strong winter signal in the fall months.

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).

2 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

Very low, less than 0.001%. Our strongest el ninos (namely 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) ended up between 2.5-3C. 5C is way off the charts.

24 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

How do we know that a 5.0 would act differently than a 2.5?.. more flooding in California?..All Super el nino's have done is give warm weather through most of the country for the winter and more rains in the southwest. Somehow that doesn't seem like a big deal, or maybe I'm missing something. This has really been hyped by social media.

All I know is that if we get a 5.0 and the PDO stays negative, then we're likely in a permanent -PDO.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0154 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.70 INCHES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 1.79 INCHES SET IN 1952. THIS IS 
ALSO THE FIRST DAILY PRECIPITATION VALUE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES FOR 
PHILADELPHIA IN 837 DAYS, WHICH ENDS THE 4TH LONGEST SUCH STREAK ON 
RECORD.

PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO 
NOVEMBER 1871.

I'm surprised 2015 didn't hold the record. It rained heavy in the morning and later in the day.

9 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

did summer peak last summer?

Last summer was as frontloaded as you can get temperaturewise. The highest temperature was reached in June, and the summer was pretty much over on July 31.

An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):

2020-21: +QBO (11.15)

2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)

2022-23: +QBO (12.89)

2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)

2024-25: +QBO (13.78)

2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)

2026-27: +QBO?

(2027-28: -QBO?)

(2028-29: +QBO?)

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The four-day interval between Central Park's high of 100° on July 2 and its high of 69° yesterday is the shortest on record between a high of 100° or above and a high in the 60s. The old record of 10 days was set from July 3-13, 1898 and tied during August 1-11, 1933. Records go back to 1869.

Do you know what is causing the wild temperature swings this spring and summer? This is like the 5th month in a row, dating back to March, where we have set a new temperature swing record.

7 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

If it was an nfl Sunday with the eagles playing, the power would already be restored.

The last 3 days were perfect Eagles weather. 103, 102, and 101 degrees.

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold):

‘26:

 

If the Eastern US is going to be cold in a strong/super el nino, I feel like the record warmth will have to be centered around the PNW or southwestern Canada. (2009-10's record warmth was centered around southwestern Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics.) The fact that there is a warm signal in southwest Canada is promising.

PHL at 101 at 4 pm. This is the first time PHL has ever reached 101 on 3 consecutive days.

June 2026 PDO: -1.75

AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0

AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5

PHL has reached 100 for the 2nd straight day.

Barring a major volcano, I'm almost certain next summer in the Eastern US is going to smash the average temperature record, even if the hottest day won't reach the highs of 2011 and this year, especially if we transition to a strong la nina.

I'm almost sure that if Pinatubo didn't happen, 1992 would have been another record warm summer in the East, along with the rest of the 1991-95 period.

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Max so far

New Brnswck: 104
EWR: 103
LGA: 102
JFK 100
TEB:100
NYC: 100

 

PHL is at 101

Reading 102

ABE reached 100 (first 100 since July 22, 2011)

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

First 100 since July 2011. Could see a second one in a row tomorrow.

Yeah, NWS Mt. Holly no longer has to tweet about Lehigh Valley Airport not reaching 100 degrees since 2011. They can just focus on tweeting that average temperatures are ~2F warmer now than in 1925.

4 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

IIRC there was a 130 heat index at Newark that day

That's probably right. PHL's heat index was 129 and dewpoint 82.

Now, it's time to see if ABE or Wilkes Barre-Scranton get to 100. ABE last hit 100 on July 22, 2011, and Wilkes Barre-Scranton last hit 100 on July 15, 1995.

Yep, triple digits is a sure bet for almost all of the region. Today is going to rival 7/15/1995 and 7/22/2011.

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

noon Round up hot town summer i the city

 

New Brnswck: 100
JFK: 100
EWR: 99
ACY: 99
BLM: 97
TEB: 97
PHL: 97
LGA: 96
NYC: 96
TTN: 95
ISP: 92

Yep, CPK is going to hit 100 today, as is almost the rest of the region. This is going to rival 7/22/2011.

Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010.

Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.

3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

77F/DP 75F at 6:05am

*Philly at 79F...won't go below 80F tonight.

Official low at PHL was 80 per the 6-hour obs. We're going to challenge the 83 set in the 2010 and 2011 heatwaves.

4 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

92 per mesonet. 100 seems inevitable.

First time since 2011 that we're going to get widespread 100s. Even in 2012 and last year, when there were 100s in the region, not everybody hit, and there was a chance it would just miss. But today and tomorrow look like no doubters for almost all of the region, like 7/22 and 7/23/2011.