PhiEaglesfan712

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months. 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

18 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

The only "fast starts to winter, then died in January" were 89-90 and 07-08.

Technically, you could argue 05-06 and 20-21, but those had a blockbuster return in February.

ASO 2025 RONI: -0.78

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

14-15 had a cold November, though. It was more like December was the outlier warm month.

I think that had to be 90-91. That was a wall-to-wall warm winter, which continued into spring and summer. Almost like a 11-12 redux.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1939 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

Should be February 22, 1929.

Also, if NYC doesn't get a 10-inch snowstorm, it will be the 9th out of 10 seasons without a 10-inch snowstorm (only 2020-21 had a snowstorm >10 inches). I think it will be the first time that NYC hasn't had a 10-inch snowstorm 5 years in a row, breaking a tie with 2016-17 to 2019-20.

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just something to watch since we have had warm ups every December since 2011 from 16th to the 25th like clockwork. These periods had convection near the MJO 4-6 phases which weren’t very well forecast in advance. Plus even if the MJO wasn’t too amplified in phases 4-6, it would still shift the pattern warmer than the start of the month.

There could be a new seasonality to this since the 2nd half of December has been warming at faster rate than early December. I have been discussing this since 2011. Anthony Masiello also made a post about this for his area last December on one of the social media platforms.

I think 2017 is the only exception, with the historic cold 2nd half of December/first half of January. We stayed overnight (might have been 2 nights) at AC for my sister's 25th birthday, and it was way too cold to go on the Boardwalk. That year, we didn't get the warm-up until mid-January, and we all know about that record warmth in February. Then, of course, the cold/snowy pattern came back for March and April.

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

Wait, the 1991-2020 average is only 122? I thought it would be somewhere around 140, considering how active 1995-2005 was.

I guess I can lower the baseline for a hyperactive season to 175. That will give us 13:

1            2005      247.65

2            1933      235.785

3            1893      231.0738

4            1995      227.5513

5            1950      227.1413

6            2004      226.94

7            1926      225.7788

8            2017      224.8775           

9            1961      196.95

10          1998      181.8838

11          2020      180.3725

12          1955      178.585

13          1999      177

2017-18 and January 2022 are the only times really that the coastal areas got good snow since the mid-2010s el nino.

But 2009-10 to 2015-16 (if you take out 2011-12 and 2012-13) was a great run for the coastals (this is Atlantic City's snowfall):

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been the pattern over the last decade. Early start to the season followed by a lull from late August into early September. Followed by a very strong late September to late October. So very challenging to get a low ACE season anymore with the record Atlantic SSTs and these historic RI and so many Cat 4-5 hurricanes. 

We didn't get the early start to the season this year. The season was quiet until mid August this year, and was pretty much a one-off (with Erin) until Gabrielle.

The last real -EPO/-WPO winter was 2014-15. We did get a nice -WPO interval in winter 2021-22:

2021 11 04   -1.31
2021 11 05  -20.98
2021 11 06   -7.63
2021 11 07    3.39
2021 11 08    8.04
2021 11 09  -32.10
2021 11 10  -93.68
2021 11 11 -125.89
2021 11 12  -99.82
2021 11 13  -60.12
2021 11 14  -25.64
2021 11 15  -13.71
2021 11 16  -25.31
2021 11 17  -40.49
2021 11 18  -41.37
2021 11 19  -65.80
2021 11 20 -101.84
2021 11 21  -89.64
2021 11 22  -89.38
2021 11 23 -114.97
2021 11 24  -60.54
2021 11 25    3.63
2021 11 26   -8.78
2021 11 27  -23.90
2021 11 28   18.52
2021 11 29   60.52
2021 11 30   73.79
2021 12 01   44.70
2021 12 02   10.69
2021 12 03   57.56
2021 12 04  -11.29
2021 12 05   47.68
2021 12 06  140.61
2021 12 07  152.65
2021 12 08  144.81
2021 12 09  142.25
2021 12 10   94.87
2021 12 11    5.18
2021 12 12  -42.68
2021 12 13  -20.06
2021 12 14   17.25
2021 12 15   27.18
2021 12 16   42.72
2021 12 17   37.61
2021 12 18  -16.18
2021 12 19  -65.67
2021 12 20  -86.62
2021 12 21 -167.98
2021 12 22 -157.53
2021 12 23 -155.67
2021 12 24 -183.65
2021 12 25 -150.32
2021 12 26 -103.17
2021 12 27  -76.73
2021 12 28  -43.84
2021 12 29  -17.47
2021 12 30  -37.54
2021 12 31  -58.02
2022 01 01  -90.22
2022 01 02 -180.61
2022 01 03 -213.31
2022 01 04 -213.68
2022 01 05 -221.87
2022 01 06 -187.22
2022 01 07 -144.26
2022 01 08 -122.83
2022 01 09  -86.36
2022 01 10  -42.81
2022 01 11  -19.79
2022 01 12  -27.41
2022 01 13  -27.77
2022 01 14  -27.47
2022 01 15  -54.76
2022 01 16  -89.03
2022 01 17 -127.34
2022 01 18 -163.56
2022 01 19 -171.84
2022 01 20 -163.62
2022 01 21 -108.57
2022 01 22  -35.04
2022 01 23    4.34
2022 01 24   40.36
2022 01 25   34.18
2022 01 26  -41.09
2022 01 27  -73.77
2022 01 28  -77.14
2022 01 29  -81.85
2022 01 30  -99.66
2022 01 31 -128.64
2022 02 01 -154.42
2022 02 02 -138.45
2022 02 03  -85.60
2022 02 04  -35.37
2022 02 05  -38.33
2022 02 06  -28.75
2022 02 07    7.18
2022 02 08   -1.09
2022 02 09   -8.10
2022 02 10  -67.71
2022 02 11 -122.15
2022 02 12 -142.13
2022 02 13 -179.43
2022 02 14 -159.40
2022 02 15 -172.53
2022 02 16 -148.66
2022 02 17  -92.58
2022 02 18  -62.75
2022 02 19  -70.66
2022 02 20 -104.45
2022 02 21  -75.72
2022 02 22  -37.88
2022 02 23  -11.48

1955, 1998, and 1999 would have been great analogs if we had a 175-185 ACE season and a strong la nina. We obviously do not have that this year, but for fun, I will do this run:

2009-10 and 2010-11:

2013-14 and 2014-15:

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the only difference between this year and last year is 2nd year La Nina's have a little more Winter -PNA than the first year, and 2nd year -PDO's, when they don't correlate the first year, correlate the 2nd year at +1.24x. But La Nina is struggling right now.. it's starting to look like at the surface it won't make the 5 consecutive ONI month criteria. Subsurface is also weak right now.. barely -1 to -2 subsurface anomalies, and the SOI is weakly hanging around +5. Border line weak-Nina/negative-Neutral.

I think the huge difference is in 1+2. Last year, we were still in el nino there, which is why I'll never consider it a traditional la nina. This year, we at least have neutral to weak la nina conditions there, which correspond to the rest of the basin.

Also, this -PDO is a continuation of the one that started in 2019-20, and went through the 2020-23 la nina. This is more like a 7th year -PDO, than a 2nd year -PDO (that was early in the 2020-23 la nina).

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Of note today back in 1972 we recorded our earliest measurable snowfall in the county area. Between 1" to 3" of snow fell across the higher ridges of NW Chester County. Interestingly that winter of 1972-1973 ended up being the least snowy winter in County history. In fact, that is the only winter season that no measurable snow was recorded at Coatesville.

As they say, October snow is never good for the rest of the season. 2011 is another famous example, with the snowstorm on October 29, followed by a snowless torch from November 2011-March 2012 (and of course, an early taste of summer in late May 2012, and 100-degree days in July 2012 - the last ones until this June).

Here is the one for 2011-12 and 2012-13. Easy to see why it didn't snow during those years: 

3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Weak La-Nina expected, I expect something like last year.  Colder than average and the storms go south. 

The difference is that we have a deep -IOD and Nino 1+2 is in an actual la nina state. I feel like temps will be well above average and the storms will miss to the North and east. Areas of coastal Maine will probably have the best chance for above average snowfall, maybe Boston. But there will be a very sharp cutoff to the south and west, places like Washington DC and Baltimore are almost certainly going to have another low snowfall season, probably even Philly and NYC.

Wait, I thought the Nor'easter was in mid-March 1993, not December 1992. I was 4-and-a-half, but I remember my sister being born (12/29/92) and then baptized (in January 93) first, before the huge snowstorm, which I think happened on 3/13/93 (when she was 2.5 months old).

I do remember my mom telling me about a storm the night before my sister was born (12/28/92), but it missed us well to the south. I think NC got an ice storm, and the Delmarva area might have gotten snow.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component. 

We just had 2 nor'easters this past spring (April 11-12 and May 21-22).

Look on the bright side: At least we had more rain this October than last October. I still can't believe that we recorded 0 precipitation for an entire month.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas.

My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain.

We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck.

But those storms prove that last winter wasn't a no-chance winter. We've had many of those in the last 15 years (like 11-12 or 22-23). Last winter was more like 20-21. The difference is the storm tracks aligned perfectly for NYC in 20-21, not so much last winter. But the tracks were still there.

Also, 20-21 proved that NYC can still have good winters post 18-19. Or was that luck, and is NYC doomed to never have a great winter 20-21?

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January.

Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 for us especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression.

Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event. 

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day).

While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event.

I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Hope it stays 500 miles off the coast. I have some outside things to do and driving sucks in the rain. Plus it'll piss drought guy off and he'll post more...maybe even make a winter prediction if he hasn't already.

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area.

Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December. 

(Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)