AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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The Euro may be correct on a more southern track but I wouldnt be crowning it victor as long as the HRRR keeps pushing heavy QPF up into our area. The Euro has basically half the QPF as the HRRR
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Another view of the 18z 12km NAM 10:1 and kuchera maps
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To your point, there likely will be a 20-30 mile wide band from SW to NE that will be the real show with high QPF and intense snowfall rates. Where that band sets up determines who gets 6-12” in 6 hours. Locations on the edges of this band will get robbed as the intense upward motion will cause surrounding subsidence and either light precip rates to the north of it, and a rain/snow mix to its south.
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Latest long range HRRR continued the subtle south trend. Any more south and the northern parts of LSV could have lower QPF issues!
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Hot off the press
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15z SREF is coming in. The mean hasnt posted yet
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Latest HRRR hot off the press continues to speed up the changeover to snow. Now has the rain/snow line down to the turnpike by 3AM and by 6AM everyone is getting plastered
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I think over the last couple days we can all agree the European has not been top dog on this system and has struggled mightily within itself and has had terrible run-to-run consistency
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I think the message is pretty consistent across all models regardless what they print out…the axis of heaviest snow will be more centered near I-81 and Route 78 and vicinity versus I-80
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12z Euro still has a very weak snowfall map. Likely due to fact the heaviest precip rates stay south of the M/D line so its much more a rain/snow mix for LSV and lower QPF totals. With the event 12 hours out now, global models arent as useful and Id be watching the HRRR, RAP, and other hires products
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48/36 here in Lebanon…still somewhat hard to believe in 24 hours could be 6+” of snow on the ground
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Latest HRRR is even colder than last hours run. 5AM is just pounding away
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Latest HRRR shows the changeover to heavy snow down to the turnpike by 4AM
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12z NCEP WRF-ARW 10:1 snow map
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Id imagine come midday NWS CTP likely will do WWA for Adams, York, Lancaster for a broad 2-5” and Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon WSW for 4-7” or so
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12z 3km NAM 10:1 and kuchera snow maps
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12z NAM kuchera
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Zoomed in 10:1 and kuchera snow map from HRRR
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8AM tomorrow per HRRR is puking snow over the LSV
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Yep, she is a beaut Clarke
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If I was a betting man Id guess CTP will issue WSW during the early morning product updates and paint a broad-brushed 4-7” across at least Cumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties
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0z GFS kuchera
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Latest tweet from crazy uncle JB
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Typically, especially in February, a sub 980-ish storm near the Delmarva is a locked down major snowstorm for our area. Obviously, the lack of cold air and a strong high to the north make this tricky. BUT, a deepening storm with strong forcing and ascent can definitely manufacture its own cold as these models are now showing. Rates could be very impressive…maybe someone hears some thundersnow??
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Another view of 0z Icon…ticked south about 25 miles compared to its 18z run
