BuffaloWeather

45 and cloudy cold front a couple hours away

No more model talk, lets get these observations going! Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada. Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... *** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA *** A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning. Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region. By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the region from any flood concerns. By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a light to moderate snow event. Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west, then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere. Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow. As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region. Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region. Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing snow. It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through the 20s.

Remember those 2-2.5" QPF bombs the GFS was tossing out a few days ago. Then it went way NW then way SE? What a terrible model.

Yeah next week GFS drops the PV over us again. I think come March I'll be content with this winter.

With how cold its been I probably could swing it.

45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today.

GEM is slightly SE from last nights run

GFS looks good.

You're fine Tombo. Not sure why Dave called you out. Tim Trolls all over the board and hes never called him out. Just mute him and move on.

Pretty cool how the higher res is picking up the lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario

The 100k for throwing games sounds insane to me too even though I know tanking is real. The players will never tank on purpose, but management can setup the team to fail in any given season and coaching goes hand in hand with management.

If any of this is false, he will never coach again in the NFL/college/high school. I think he knew that before the allegations which make it hard to believe this isn't true.

Some of that lawsuit makes zero sense. The part of Daboll wanting out because he didn't like McDermott? He decided to stay another year this year when he had head coach offers last offseason. The part of Flores being coach and Daboll going to be Offensive coordinator also makes zero sense. Why would he make a lateral move when he is literally the #1 head coaching candidate this year and last? Reeks of BS. Mcdermott was so bad that Dorsey went back on his handshake agreement with Daboll to become Offensive coordinator for the Bills.

HRRR

GEM warmest frame.

GFS

Marty schottenheimer was let go after 3 straight, going 14-2, and winning the division 2 out of 3 years.

Bill b is too smart that doesn’t sound like him

Went skiing after work prime conditions

I’m back looks like Model mayhem continues.

I love the climo here. It’s pretty warm here in summer and fall and get Great Lake effect/winter storms. Spring sucks but I usually plan a trip to somewhere warm during that time which tides me over until it gets warm here.

Lake Erie today