BuffaloWeather

I was in Knox last year for a training, really nice town. Hoping to head up to Vermont this winter for some skiing.

Vermont has been in the jackpot zone for the last few years, every event they seem to have the max totals.

That last run is 40-50" across Metro Buffalo. It's all downhill from there.

Don't get too excited the runs have been highly variable. The last run had primarily NW winds. We will have a better idea by thanksgiving to early next weekend. But usually an EPO dump results in a lake effect event somewhere.

Yeah Buffalo is warm in the fall due to the warm lake Erie temps, but we stay colder in Spring due to all the ice which sucks.

Todays average High/Low is 45/32. Still need a pretty cold airmass to get any appreciable snow. By Dec 4th the average is 39/27.

Way out there but Dec 4-7th is best chance at first lake snow event.

AO is all over the place.

Teles going in right direction, will make a new post this weekend https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Same with Chatuaqua ridge, Boston, Colden, etc... Definitely more then 50% of their snowfall is from LES.

solid look

Coincides with the EPO dump, still need to work on that PNA, but it's trending the right direction. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Does the model input data coorelate to the 30 feet deep water temp or surface water temp? How do they coorelate the lower degreed lake temps towards Cleveland in comparison to the warmer deeper portions close to Dunkirk and Buffalo?

Wasn’t Andy Parker the only one to predict oct 2006 a few days before it happened?

I got accepted there for meteorology. But stayed in buffalo with the girlfriend and went for business instead.

From NWS: https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFclifo Over half of the annual snowfall comes from the "lake-effect" process and is very localized. Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air crosses the relatively warm lake waters and becomes saturated, creating clouds and precipitation downwind. The location of these snowbands is determined by the direction of the wind. Due to the prevailing winds, areas south of Buffalo receive much more lake-effect snow than locations to the north. The lake snow machine can start as early as mid November, peaks in December, then virtually shuts down after Lake Erie freezes in mid to late January. The area does not experience many heavy general (synoptic scale) snows, because large scale storm systems usually pass well to the east. Spring comes slowly to the Buffalo area. The ice pack on Lake Erie does not usually disappear until mid April and the lake remains chilly through most of May. As the prevailing flow is southwesterly, areas near the lake are often as much as 20 degrees colder than inland locations. @DeltaT13 Fortunately, the cool lake waters act as a strong stabilizing influence, so areas near the lake shore, including the city of Buffalo, experience more sunshine and fewer thunderstorms than inland areas. The cool air from the lake also retards the growing season, but this diminishes the threat of damaging late spring frosts. The average date of the last frost is near the end of April in the Buffalo metro area, but in mid May well inland.

I would think Syracuse receives more from synoptic then Buffalo does, they have a much more favorable location. They also get enhancement behind with the NW flow.

You're due for a big LES event at your location. This might be the year.

How do you differentiate lake effect vs enhanced? Buffalo receives quite a bit from enhanced, probably more from enhanced then from LES.