BuffaloWeather

Gotta worry about the dry slot too. I think it hits somewhere in south central NY for a time. (1st storm)

They're not calling for that though. Go read the discussion, they broke up the 2 events.

I think KBUF goes WSW for 8-14" across all of forecast area.

6Z RGEM. I think we're close to consensus for the 1st event.

I see 6-12 at 1:10, temps are going to be pretty cold. I expect ratios of 1:20 with this first event.

KBUFS forecast discussion vs BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science...BING does not at all, its so generic. BUFFALO .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England. There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain snow, with added lake moisture. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the evening hours of Sunday. Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas northeastward towards New England. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet streaks for our region. For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS solutions) in the HWO product. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday night, cold air advection may bring lake effect snow to areas southeast of mainly Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day once any lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario end. Some sunshine is possible, though remaining cold. Clouds thicken Wednesday night ahead of the next storm system, with possible snow reaching the Southern Tier by daybreak Thursday. There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing. BINGHAMTON .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A very active pattern will affect the Northeast U.S. during the short term period. A diffuse wave moving through the Mid-Atlantic will spread light snow across NY and PA Sunday night into Monday before the upper atmospheric flow ushers the storm out to sea. A much stronger storm will follow on its heels. This storm will intensify over GA Monday night and spin into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. This storm will spread significant snow into the NY and PA, with the potential for mixed precipitation over our southeastern counties. Early indications suggest several inches of snow could fall between Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor this developing situation. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the coastal storm exits the region early Wednesday, snow will taper off and focus downwind of the lakes as northwesterly winds drag cold air into Upstate NY. A storm will develop over the SERN U.S. Thursday and intensify as it moves up the eastern seaboard. This storm will spread snow into NY and PA beginning Thursday before warmer air above the surface works into the region and causes snow to mix with sleet, or possibly freezing rain Thursday night into Friday. A prolonged period of mixed precipitation is possible, if current model projections hold true.

KBUF seperates the events. The few inches is for the monday event. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday.

You're already way above seasonal average. A good year so far for you.

GFS V16

This type of event has 65 pages in the mid atlantic forum.

Wilson webcam http://wcecinc.axiscam.net/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=9585

Those sharks and fish along the shoreline are in for an ice bath.

Yeah my friend in Austin said a low of around zero one of the nights, just insanity

check out the LES thread. Some places got 2' in Ontario, crazy.

Their discussion has even less.. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 PM update... A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area, but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves out of the area and up the coast. High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the track of this system.

@mississaugasnow Going to be some 2' totals near Hamilton?

https://news.yahoo.com/difficult-winter-travel-threatens-weekend-121500684.html

It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are. Saturday Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor, generally 1-2 inches. Mon night-Tuesday An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Thursday Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow.

TLDR?

All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost.

Most wintry period I can remember across all of USA. I have friends skiing in states all over the country right now.