It definitely matters. Ice limits the natural process of LES. The less moisture is available when there is ice coverage. The reason why the best bands in history are over the tug is because of the 3 lake connection. It grabs moisture from 3 lakes and pounds it on the tug. The greater the amount of available moisture the greater the potential band strength.
Convergence setting up with SW winds near Chat. ridge and NW winds out of Canada! The best events occur when this happens. Can you imagine what this event would have been with a open lake? Would have been Nov 2014 all over again.
Besides 2014 this is the craziest event I've ever witnessed in my lifetime I think. I didn't think snowfall rates of 2-4 per hour were possible with 81% frozen lake on Feb. 20th off of Erie.
So with an 80% frozen lake Erie this is what we got overnight around my area. 30" and counting. One of the greatest LES events on a frozen lake in history.
So a strong LES band formed off 80% frozen lake Erie tonight producing snowfall rates over 3" per. Went chasing as it was just a few miles south of my house. Few Pics.