griteater

NAM out to 22 looks closer to 18z than the big 12z run

Thoughts: 1. My forecast map is based on where I think the models will end up, not where they necessarily are now. 2. I like a more amped up solution closer to the UKMet and CMC. Warmer. More precip back to the west, even more than shown - models are notorious for being skimpy with precip on the NW side with Miller A's. Also, jet structure (right entrance region of strong jet) is excellent for building precip back west. 3. I was mainly focused on NE GA / SC / NC on the map...didn't look hard at N GA into Bama or other states.

I dusted off the model performance thread to capture the difference here with GFS/Euro vs. CMC/UKMet https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/?do=findComment&comment=4682114

It's kind of amazing how the Euro has fallen from how it used to be regarded

Euro is taking a baby step, but not a big one

Can have NE winds without cold air damming though. We have north winds right now

UKMet 850 and Sfc Temp panels are out. It runs the 850 low thru the heart of GA to NC. Looks really good for GA mtns to NC mtns...iffy just east of there

Super dynamic storm...strong, closed off 850mb low. A low that tugged to the coast is normally not good for GSP to CLT

rain with the possibility of sleet...best positive bust in my memory

For Charlotte, I like it a little off the coast...great for mtns and foothills

If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one

First off, my mistake, the 850mb temp maps aren't even out yet for the 12z run, but yeah, sfc low ends up at the mouth of the Cape Fear River. 500mb at 72 hour looks remarkably close to the CMC, but thickness line is slightly warmer on UKMet. Sfc low is stronger and closer to the coast. Seeing the UKMet like this is a warning shot. I don't see us going back weaker/flatter.

UKMet maps coming in. It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills

UKMet looks amped up at hr72...detailed maps come out later

Agree, it took a baby step toward a sharper wave...had slightly more precip west

NAVGEM is in the sharp camp too

The GFS/Euro/UKMet have a lot of work to do to get to this type of sharpening of the wave at the base of the trough. NAM/CMC/JMA are sharp at the base. I'd say meet the two ideas in the middle

Spot checking soundings, it looks legit with the precip type....are the model temps correct though? We'll see

NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

Looking at the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble means, each one is taking baby steps toward more precip back inland. Of the 3, the Euro Ens is making the smallest moves (part of that may be the large # of ensemble members). The CMC Ens Mean is the most amplified with the southern portion of the trough. GFS and Euro Ens are similar at the base of the trough. I think we'll continue to see slight sharpening of the wave and some increases to the precip back to the west.

The upper levels drive the bus. So yes, it's all important

UKMet looks pretty healthy with precip...sfc low just off SC coast at hr72...850 zero deg from Norfolk to south of Charlotte to south of GSP

You can get the UKMet early at this link, but you have to turn your head sideways to view it, lol - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

As long as the wave doesn't go too positive tilt like the GFS, yes, I'd expect more precip inland than currently shown. Models tend to be too skimpy on the NW side with precip in Miller A's