The Waterboy

And right on cue the NW shifts comes…

12z Canadian has a nasty ice storm next Monday/Tuesday.  Yikes!!! 

The radar west of OKC looks good.  Let’s get a few inches and enjoy all the hard work we’ve put into this!!!

32 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

Man. I really want to be inspiring at this point. But after the last 24 hours of model mayhem I’ve become comfortably numb. But I will say this, I think this is a really complex system that has caused the models a lot of trouble and we have the benefit of high ratios. I think we will get a nice snow to look at just not the big storm we were expecting from a few days ago. Go team! 

I nominate Flizzard for team captain!  

Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included.
Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team??? 

NWS Tulsa just issued a Winter Storm Watch for a lot of us in NEOK and NWAR.  Doesn’t include Metro Tulsa at this time.  

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills
  expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind
  Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind
  chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
  possible.

Well, the Euro sucks again.  

We just had a gnarly thunderstorm come through Bentonville.  Pea sized hail and I’d estimate wind gusts of at least 50mph if not 60.  

18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle.  We’ll take it for now.  
I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south.  Maybe this does the typical model NW shift???  Although that seems to happen more with cutters.  Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro. 

NAM going to come in further south.  Ugh. 

18z HRRR looks solid.  Decent uptick around Tulsa compared to 12z run.  

5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Euro Ensembles are in(remember, these are with 10:1 ratios). BIG trend toward a snowier solution for all of us.

First I'll post last night's.

 

 

And now this afternoon's.

Thanks for the info!  What do the Ensembles show for the Friday storm? 

For what it’s worth (which might not be much) the RGEM, RAP, and HRRR have 1-2” for NWAR and Missouri.  Lesser amounts further west.   

Cue the “So you’re saying there’s a chance” GIF. 

Over the last few runs most of the models continue to speed up the cold front on Friday.  Typing this on my phone so the formatting could be wonky when I post this.  
 

HR 72 temp for Bentonville 

ICON - 48

GFS - 25

CMC - 44

NAM - 42

RGEM - 45

Euro - 47 (06 run)

HR 78 temp 

ICON - 24

GFS - 20

CMC - 21

NAM - 29

RGEM - 18 

Euro - 44 (06 run) 

By hr 84 all models (except NAM) are in the mid teens to lower 20’s.  

RECAP:  GFS is much faster with the front.  Euro much slower.  NAM is pretty much non-existent with the front at all.  
Temps on the ICON after hour 84 are stupid cold.  5 straight days below zero. 

There should be a quick changeover to snow. We need to continue to see the trend of a faster solution.  
 

One additional note regarding faster push from GFS: 

Tulsa’s temp at 06z Friday: 

18z run yesterday - 50

00z run - 49

06z run - 31

12z run - 27

2 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess. 

It has been an interesting trend for sure.  You guys in Wichita might get 4+ out of it.  Hoping we can see that same trend as it gets into NWAR/SWMO tomorrow morning.  

18z NAM trended towards HRRR for tomorrow.  Still nothing to get too excited about but maybe we can eke out an inch or two. 

6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

18z GFS Friday system gets screwed up by a lead wave on Thurs. 

Well that’s new.  Not surprising though.  Hopefully it’s a blip. 

Significant differences at hour 84 with the NAM versus GFS/GEM.  NAM seems to be the outlier as of now which is in our favor.  I’m pretty sure the NAM typically sucks that far out.  Hoping the Euro is in our favor. 
 

Probably an inch or so here in Bentonville.  In the words of Billy Madison, not too shabby.  

Let’s hope this is the appetizer to next week’s main course.  

Interesting info in the Springfield NWS write-up overnight:  

Attention then turns to the next large storm system that will
come through Monday through Tuesday. It is quite impressive how
much agreement there has been between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
deterministic models (and even ensembles to some degree) for
such a dynamic system. A very potent deep trough will scoop
through the central CONUS, forcing a deep surface low that will
create moderate to heavy precipitation for much of the central
and eastern US. For starters, the NAEFS/ENS ESATs prog this
trough/low pair as the lowest pressure they have modeled in the
last 30 years for our area at this time of year. With such a
storm system, we will likely see at least minor impacts
(currently 30-50% chance from the Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index). There is still uncertainty in exact track which
could determine whether our impacts are mainly rain-based or
snow-based. Nevertheless, the synoptic setup is continuing to
match well with our Heavy Snow Climatology: ENS and GEFS member
surface low locations are clustered within northern AR, the 850
mb low moves through south-central MO, and the 500 mb low is
closing and extends into OK; all which match with heavy snow
climatology for our area. The only difference is that we would
like to see a more negatively tilted trough versus the positive
tilt that is shown in many ENS/GEPS members, which may struggle
to force colder air into the region for snow. At this point in
time, the most likely scenario looks to be moderate rain
initially within the warm-air advection regime ahead of the low,
then potentially some moderate snow on the backside of the low
for at least some of our CWA (more likely toward the north).
Finer details will be ironed out in subsequent forecasts

18z HRRR was pretty juicy.  1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR.  

Bentonville/Bella Vista getting hammered right now with heavy sleet.  

Measured 5” in Bentonville.  Also have one minor tree limb that snapped.  

How is The Great Tulsa Donut Hole of 2023 even possible?   That’s just stupid and really sucks.  Especially for all the hype this storm had over the past week.  

It seems like every hourly run of the RAP and HRRR continue to shift to the SE.  Pretty soon Little Rock’s going to be in the sweet spot.  LOL.