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Witness Protection Program

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    Hurricane Francine

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Isn't a large major approaching on the eastern edge of the current cone considered the worst case scenario for New Orleans, at least for storm surge?

    Not that I expect everything to come together for that, just seem to recall that was the findings of a study an LSU professor did years before Katrina.

    Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

    Impressive impacts as many have stated, definitely more like what you'd see with a cat 2 LF. Also going to echo that if this had even 12 more hours, (lets not talk about 24), the wind impacts to Houston might have more on par with Ike level+.

    Yes, local officials think this may surpass Ike both in the percentage of the population that loses power and the cumulative amount/speed of wind.  Even though Ike was a Cat 2 landfall, most of the Houston area was not on the dirty side of that storm.  Beryl put more of the metro on the dirty side,  Also a lot of locations have exceeded predictions for both sustained winds and gusts.

    The total damage will also be magnified by the fact that 2 million more people live in the Houston area compared to 2008  (7.6 million estimated now.)

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

    Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

    Counterpoint:

    I saw Bear Suit at Buc-eee's just now, he said Cantore and he will end up at the Galveston seawall again.

    hurricanebear.thumb.jpg.c239603fc51de756

    #SheBlindedMeWithScience

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4

    Idalia Banter

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 thoughts:

    1.  Looking at the swamps and topography of Florida's armpit, I'd say the odds are up to almost 50% that 1 or more dumb disaster wankers "Imma documentary stormchaserz!" ends up getting themselves killed by poor decisions.

    2.  Could be some really terrible results depending on where the surge for this thing hits.  So many very low lying houses.  Take a look at all those canal streets in Suwannee:  https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3297975,-83.1433486,2760m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu

    You've got mobile homes on the water that will flood with as little as 5' of surge and some wave action:  https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3308642,-83.1400039,3a,15y,234.07h,86.97t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDUHcWJw9R1rGrvVwgnjaTQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?entry=ttu

    And even the homes built on stilts may have to contend with a lot of battering tree and mobile home debris atop the surge, driven by the winds.  1-2 miles inland not so advantageous when it's that low lying.  We saw in Ike the way many stilt homes couldn't take the high surge + wave action, I'd guess it would have been even worse if there had been a mile of 3' elevation forested swamp in between.  Might initially blunt  the waves, but  debris pile would eventually slam forward.

    No way I'd try to ride it out in Cedar Key, Suwanneee, Yankeetown, Horseshoe Beach, or even parts of Steinhatchee.  And with all those snappable pines and thick forests, I would never mock anyone well inland evacuating from fears of wind damage. 

     

    • Like 2

    Hurricane Franklin

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Windspeed said:
    21 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:
    Dang, how long has it been Franklin?  I assume a lot of lighting involved?  The key for me is keeping this turkey away from Houston.

    Just became Franklin, and you must be confusing this system (topic) with the Gulf of Mexico system. Franklin will not be a threat to the Gulf but could pose some interaction with the Mid-Atlantic to New England depending on how modeling evolves and trough vs western Atlantic ridging interaction.

    Thanks.  But...

    ...the Little Orphan Annie secret society decoder pin says:

    "Dang, how long has it been Franklin?  I assume a lot of lighting involved?  The key for me is keeping this turkey away from Houston."

    Should have added kite flying and Punnsylvania references.

    • Haha 1
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