Stx_Thunder

I can only imagine how tough it is to stay comfortably warm. Especially when it goes on for days with the cold still in place in the state all this week. I was without power for only 2 days after hurricane Harvey (2017), and even that wasn't too comfortable either without A/C. 11 K people still look to remain without power in ETX tonight.

About 20K people in ETX still remain without power tonight. Since Saturday night. Namely, Shelby & Nacogdoches counties, that have been "Ground Zero" for this 2026 ETX major ice storm. The outages jumped from 30K (early this morning), back up to near 40K. But those additional 9K outages further south in Jasper county (and east) earlier today may have been unrelated.

Additional Ice & sleet damage reports in NTX/NETX, and SETX (including Houston area), finally came in from DFW and Houston NWS offices. The highest (reported) Freezing rain total in ETX was 3/4", in Panola county. The highest NTX Sleet storm total was 5.5" in Celina, or Collin county.

10.1" of sleet was reported by an NWS met in Pulaski county, AR over the weekend. According to NWS Little Rock public information statement data on sleet reports.

'Never thought even just a 1/2 inch sleet would be enough to cause issues (like pure icing from freezing rain does at a smaller amount like 0.10" or even less). I still find sleet way more interesting than snow, in any case. And always will. Though, I have seen 2 different types of sleet. The more melted kind looks like salt flakes. While actual ice pellets are purely round, and those easily bounce off of just about anything. Which makes those kind really interesting.

Very surprised to read in here the weekend North TX Sleet storm got all the way up into AR & MO, with all the low-level WAA ahead of that major southern-stream trough (that produced a really complex winter storm event in TX). Since I've never experienced a real sleet storm, I do wonder what's the most ever sleet storm total (or depth) in this thread's states? I'm thinking it has to be at least a foot? And I wonder how that's like or driving on it. Apparently, even just 4" sleet pack is enough to get stuck from what I saw in Dallas.

The main takeaways for me on this definitely complex winter storm event was the CTX/ETX major icing. But particularly the strong, wintry thunderstorms with lots of CG strikes early Sunday. Which the models surprisingly, did get right on the very abnormally high 850 Mb instability in the grids (for these shallow/overrunning Arctic airmass scenarios). That, was just pure insane. Mid-level lapse rate was maintained in the -6 to -7 range also. Which Euro advertised would be the case as well.

NTX/DFW Sleet pack was also nothing short of interesting. 'Still wanting to know what was the ultimate, total sleet accu. in that region. But looks like around 5 in. depth. 'Though I don't get why DFW allowed a Mavericks game to go on Saturday evening despite the major ongoing sleet storm. But I'm just guessing that's one of those 100% "Go at your own risk" type things. And I saw a live news report video last night of people getting stuck on highways in the city.

Austin's Bergstrom international airport broke the record low max. temp of 33 F set back in 1961. Sunday's high (today) was 29 F. Also on yesterday the 24th, Del Rio broke the previous max. liquid-equivalent precip record of 0.35 in. set back in 2012. The new record is 0.39 in.

ETX power outages have significantly dropped since early this morning. But several counties still have a significant amount of outages ongoing. A Lot of new ice and winter storm reports to sift through today, and I haven't had normal sleep the past few days. But skimming through in CTX, ETX (even SETX), this ice and winter storm event in the state was by no means a bust. Even San Antonio & Houston did not get spared either. Which the models did not forecast any major icing to happen at all that far south.

ETX power outages are growing this morning (according to Poweroutage.us data that also includes electric providers in each county). It went from 100K a little over 3 hours ago, to about 140K now. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas

Winter wx convective instability is really starting to pick up in ETX/SETX. This is no doubt going to push up the icing accumulations in the next few hours with much higher precip rates in the thunderstorms. Even Houston is now looking to get major convective icing. Very good amount of stronger CG strikes for this scenario. Even a decent amount of positives!!

Ice damage reports are coming in now. 14,000+ people without power in SAT, so far.

CTX/ETX ice threat continues until late tonight, at least. NAM seems to have gone way out to lunch on this evening's 0Z run with freezing rain accumulation further north in ETX. Even both Tyler & Longview have been reporting FZRA for the past two hours now, and DFW 850Mb temp is still hanging at 0 C, on 0Z upper air observations (from earlier this evening). There's a pretty solid band of precip that also has some embedded thunderstorms as well that's approaching the region as of typing this. We do also have a neutrally-tilted or N-S oriented incoming SS trough that's entering WTX now on satellite imagery. And, Houston radar VWP is showing a strengthening 850Mb - 700Mb flow that is indeed, mainly south (as the models had advertised).

Posting these H7 and 850Mb temp profiles from 0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight for visual reference on why ETX icing, is bound to be majorly impactful Saturday night. As long as 850Mb - 700Mb layer warm-rain processes don't get too much in the way.

0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight appear to be coming in line with 1 - 2 in. total icing, in ETX this weekend. Either way, things are definitely still looking highly impactful there.

I certainly understand there's many people out there who just want to know what's actually going to happen in weather, nothing else. And that's personally fine with me. But it's always better when people would like to (or are willing, more specifically), learn about the meteorological science & parameters in order to really understand what *can* happen. Especially nowadays where it seems like every year we pass now has its own bizarre pattern or systems that are getting more complicated to break down in meteorology.

The primary forcing aloft from the parent mid-level trough out west isn't forecast by the reliable models to start overspreading the state until later today - tonight. Which is why I've been stating the main deal (especially for convective ice/sleet) is going to be Saturday night. It's common to have "lull" or large gap areas of little or no precip between lead shortwave activity like what's ongoing in the state tonight. I have not seen the RRFS in action at all for winter wx events yet. But it does have its moments for MCS (mesoscale convective system) propagation through the state in the spring time.

Already seeing lightning activity ongoing over the Big Bend region (west of Del Rio) for the past 2 hours now. 12Z HRRR showing an MCC or small MCS tracking into STX ahead of the surface front later tonight. Which definitely has the possibility to be strong/severe if the storms out there can organize. Already seeing some favorable signs outside here in STX with all the darker mid-level cloud bases and structures before sunset. -- I do need to mention another highly underlooked instability parameter that will in fact be another major contributing factor to the wintry convective onslaught tomorrow (aside from substantial deep-layer shear closer to 100 knots on Euro & NAM), is steep mid-level lapse rates. CRP and HOU sites showing -6 to -7 C on upper-air obs data today. And Euro model systems continue to project those in the state through tomorrow night.

Was there also CG lightning going on up there back then that night? It was just incredible when I saw 2 simultaneous CG strikes (likely positive-charged because they were pretty thick bolts), in just over 35 F wx about a mile from my backyard down here. I didn't have access to detailed lightning strike data online back then.

Yes. Very, significant LIs for this kind of scenario. Just about every single parameter I can think of is lined up for a (possibly) catastrophic ETX ice storm. I don't want to overstate myself, but I feel even these most reliable winter wx models are still underdoing the accumulation potential with such a powerful incoming SS trough for this winter wx setup. That's also why I still would not let my guard down at all. Even in CTX or Austin/San Antonio region.

Same here, definitely. HRRR does tend to overdo things. Particularly when it's convective, as I've seen over the years. But even NAM, which is typically very conservative with any kind of overrunning convective instability (especially in these polar/arctic air masses), has joined that party. It's even been showing significant 850Mb instability (negative LIs) over ETX in more recent runs for Saturday night.

'Would not necessarily underestimate FZRA accumulation potential, even up there. Models have been honing in on a pretty powerful incoming SS trough out west into the state Saturday night. So the 850Mb - 700Mb southerly flow regime from S - ETX is quite likely to be significant. Even the NAM 3km runs (which always does best with these incoming shallow Arctic airmass scenarios), has been consistent on showing the 850Mb front still hung up close to DFW until late Saturday night. Which makes lots of sense in this case.

Finally... NWS got smart in ETX. I'm actually a bit surprised they went ahead and put out the IS warnings now. Since they initially just went with WS alerts.

Icing potential is definitely still there in Austin this weekend, and even San Antonio area at least to an extent. I have family in Austin region and would definitely still tell them to be prepared nonetheless (even though the much more significant or damaging ice impacts are likely to remain in ETX). NAM, alongside GFS models typically do best at least with ice/sleet accumulations in the state from what I've seen in past years. European (ECMWF) model isn't as reliable with accumulations in TX as it tends to stay too warm on surface temps.