Stx_Thunder

Brownsville got into the 90s today, and broke the record of 91 F set back in 1982.

Some maximum temp records could be in jeopardy again this upcoming week as ridging aloft looks to reassert itself over the Plains states early in the week.

Several cities in the eastern half of state broke daytime high temp records today. Due to the dryline reaching all the way east into ETX. A deeper westerly downslope flow was found even in College Station and Tyler in the afternoon. Aside from the tied all-time January temp maximums in both Austin and San Antonio, the biggest jump in maximum daytime high from previous record for today (January 2), was actually in Waco.

A new year? A new TX thread. - Looking pretty warm with more widespread sig ridging influence across the central states (again), to start 2026. Euro and ensemble already going up to 20 C on 850Mb temps ('plain & simple' way above normal this time of year) in some spots the next several days. Which that alone leaves me with almost 0 doubt, more sfc temp records are going to be broken across much of the state, once again. Along with even dryline influence invading the state as well from the west (more indicative of an early springlike zonal flow pattern). Which will only add more daytime high record-breaking fuel potential to this second (virtually inevitable now) winter heat wave. "Winter's over, ya'll!"

Why am I not too surprised about completely uncalled for "mistakes" like this from NWS anymore..: The nut "forecaster" who posted that must've been on 'you know what'. Possibly even more so when they learned the Christmas in July pattern would be in the grids this year.

Not before setting a new all-time, daytime high record for December this year (that I posted about in here). Very interesting as that had not happened in Fayetteville AR since back in 1951.

Almost every part of the state now has either or both, broken a max daytime or overnight high minimum temp record this week. Amarillo & El Paso are also included looking at Nexlab data. Amarillo has broken both daytime high and overnight high minimum temp records this week. And so has some cities in ETX/SETX, like College Station and Tyler. Also, Texarkana has set a new all-time record high for December this year.

Lots of daytime high temp records have been broken altogether, and even some overnight low maximums as well in all four of this topic's states from just yesterday (26th), and Christmas Day. Most notable so far has been Fayetteville AR. Setting a new all-time record high this year for the month of December.

Areas of southern and western OK are near 90 F this Christmas Day afternoon, with records easily shattered now in Oklahoma City & Tulsa. While not very unexpected with all the abnormally strong ridging in place over the Plain states this Christmas week, at least parts of OK and KS are also on the way to experiencing the warmest Christmas on record this year.

It's virtually inevitable at this point that there's going to be a significant amount of max. temp records (both in highs & lows), broken in the state this ongoing Christmas week. Not just over NTX or DFW area, but also NWTX, ETX, and probably SETX. Houston area included as even they've broken a few already this week.

Welp, looks like LOTS of people in the country are going to be *majorly dreaming of a White Christmas this year with this basically off-the-chart atmospheric warmth in store..

Hail threat (once again this ongoing cool season), looks to return to STX and coastal region tomorrow night (16th). Some severe hail is not out of question inland. Even if storms stay elevated. There was some embedded supercellular structures with hail cores in an MCC that actually separated into 2 opposite moving clusters not far off the coast last Friday night. The models (not too surprisingly) have been somewhat downplaying convective instability and moisture parameters lately around here. And the incoming mid-upper trough out west that SPC claims to be "weak" last night on D2 outlook has not appeared to be so on Euro since over a week ago. With even H5 flow still possibly going over 30 knots later tomorrow. 12z and 18z HRRR runs today now are also showing fairly stout 850mb southerly WAA flow potentially over 40 knots tomorrow as well. And even a split-jet flow regime moving over the state, tomorrow night (on Euro also). Which typically induces even more support for lift & dynamics aloft ahead of it.

Euro & GFS have been consistent on this since last week, on 2+ in. precipitable water values (way above normal in December) near/over the coast. Starting late today ahead of the next SS trough out west and typical responding coastal Low pattern. Already above 1.5 in. PW on Brownsville UA 12z obs early this morning. I'll be danged if we still have this late spring/early fall type moisture depth around the coastal region later this month or beginning of 2026. Especially with a warming ENSO (into EN territory) trend now back in the cards.. CPC actually turned out to be right about the formidable ongoing phase 7/8 MJO "destructively" interfering with the typical warm/dry LN pattern, on their week 3-4 outlook discussion (in early November).

'Next to December now. And still got 3+ in. hailers (and likely over 80 DBZ reflectivity and 55 Kft storm tops), in the state tonight..

Typical LN cool season pattern with more dominant subtropical ridging influence over the southern plains states. Hopefully, it'll back off some by Thanksgiving (more troughing coming back into the picture).

3 in. hailstones reported Saturday evening in the Coastal Bend area. Max size could've definitely been slightly larger given all the abnormally far south colder mid-level air & dynamics in place (for the time of year), near the region that evening.

Even though will be a brief convective event with limited CAPE ahead of the next cold front on this upcoming first weekend of November, 'still looks pretty interesting over the Coastal region later Saturday afternoon - evening. There won't be a crazy intense ML jet over the state (that was observed earlier this week), but still looks to be another deep mid-level trough carving through The Lone Star. As DL shear is likely to be fairly strong. Up to 60+ knots in STX. Most interesting factor this time will be the steep ML lapse rates. More-so, because ML temps are going to be quite abnormally cold (having just entered the cool season). Even < 0 C, at H7! This cool season is already beginning to shape up to be a very interesting one..

It's been a while since I've ever seen mid-level jet core intensity this (crazy) high, so early in the new cool season. If this was during last Friday night's svr event, SPC would've likely talked about a moderate risk. 'Shall see how this strength trend influences the pattern over the state (and possible svr at times) during this cool season..

Decent severe coverage for the time of year from last night's MCS tracking across much of the state with decent rainfall totals also over the hill country and northern half. Hopefully the ground will soak up all the water especially in the basically 'been bone-dry all year SAT region as it could be a little while before the next sig statewide precip event from now. Severe not necessarily done yet over the southeastern half of state tonight as a new linear MCS is taking shape over the eastern part of CTX right now. DL shear observed near 60 knots (quite high for October standards), with ML lapse rates aoa 7 in STX this afternoon. And the M-UL circulation is currently tracking e/ne on satellite near DFW region. Got a robust storm cluster ongoing just off the lower coast as well.

Looks pretty interesting this Friday - Saturday over much of the state with a fairly stout incoming Pacific Low/trough axis. Euro, GFS and ensembles had only really begun to latch onto a more deeper and more south-tracking system at the beginning of this week. So not 100% sold on it just yet. But the PNA has been (and still is) in a + phase. So this does bear some potential. Along with stronger storms and some kind of severe risk. Substantial rainfall amounts over a more drought-stricken TX now doesn't look very likely given its more likely progressive nature. But DL shear will at least be moderate. And this time, ML lapse rates will be steeper ahead of the system. Another big plus coming up is Fall looks to make an official statewide entrance next week before Halloween. The AO looks to go back into a negative phase while the AAO remains in a negative phase already. So below normal temps (even in STX) are not out of the question later next week. PNA is connected with the ENSO. Though as I've seen over the years, ENSO itself has an overall impact on TX. And, LN/cool phase ENSOs during winter have already been historically proven to be drier & warmer (on average). Due to more persistent subtropical ridging influence. The drought is likely going to worsen across the state at least for the first half of this winter. I would also not be surprised about record warmth (or even a few record-breaking, pre-frontal heat spikes in the southern half) at least in November and December. The fly in the ointment later this coming winter is the models are showing the ENSO (finally) heading back toward a warm phase or EN territory into 2026. If that's the case, then later winter - spring would more likely trend wetter & cooler overall with more SS jet influence over TX (instead of subtrop ridging). Which would also likely lead to a more active severe/MCS season in the upcoming spring. That pattern trend is what happened over the state more recently when EN started coming back in (early) 2015 and 2023. And to an extent, 2018 - 2019 - 2020 winter into spring.

Before taste of Fall wx comes into STX at the end of this week, looks pretty interesting overnight into Thursday with the cool front crawling through the region. Already near 4 in. rainfall just in the past 2 hours right over the Choke Canyon reservoir under a very decent storm cluster looking at storm totals on CRP radar. In the region near SAT where the drought is still the worst in the entire state. PWs as usual this time of year down here pooling > 2 in. ahead of the front. But H5 flow is about 30 knots now, west-northwest on VWP. So starting to see better storm organization and more frequent lightning and even a few powerful +CGs (>100 Kiloamps) on lightning data across the region. Wouldn't rule out a few embedded transient supercells and several inches of rainfall spots overnight with decent mid-upper level support for September standards. Only severe caveat that's been a fairly common TX theme this year (even before summer) is once again, meager ML lapse rates. 'Though, Euro seems to be under-doing them a bit lately.

TX Summer 2025 heat/humidity looks to come to an abnormally early halt after Labor Day weekend as fronts will start to surge through most, if not all the state (even into STX). Along with more statewide convective episodes, initially at least. Aside from temp evidence this week in the plains/midwest, signs of a very early season frontal passage in the state were already there since the start of August. Which had an abnormally deep north flow pattern aloft across the state that did reach 45 knots at H5, on DFW upper-air obs 0Z data August 5th. And the AO is trending back into negative phase to start September. Euro and even GFS and Canadian now are all starting to latch onto an actually comfortable cooldown with well below normal daytime highs only around 70 F a possibility in NTX on September 5. Will definitely be interesting to see how cool & comfortable things actually get across the state later next week. Especially, just barely coming out of meteorological summer!

Sunday - Monday looks to be the most convectively interesting the next few days with a potential MCS or at least a few MCCs. Both Euro & GFS holding fairly strong on a formidable mid-upper northerly flow and some unusually decent DL shear this time of year (possibly over 40 knots) over a good chunk of the state on the eastern side of the furnace High moving off to the west. Steering some stout mid-level shortwave energy south through the state. Especially on Monday. Euro has been a bit sketchy on shear value trends in most recent runs. But GFS has been staying mostly consistent the past few days.

On another note, sfc dew points and humidity values were majorly below normal this time of year in the coastal bend, Tuesday. Corpus airport dew point bottomed out at 49 F with just 20% humidity value in the early evening. Well below the normal 70+ F dew point observed throughout the entire summer (day & night).

'Rest of Summer 2025 is looking good for less TX insane heat, and more convective action. - Ensembles have been pretty consistent in forecasting fleeting (rather than dominant) subtropical ridging since the season began. And I don't see any reason with forecast trends this will change much, or to disagree with CPC's month outlook for August, with equal chances on temps and precip in the state. Instead of just outright throwing in above normal probability temp shades all over the state, typically. This weekend, and possibly even later next week or into mid August is looking a bit convectively interesting with a non-tropical mid-upper level pattern developing as the flow turns North across most, if not all the central and eastern half of state due to the typical mid-upper High moving off to the west. And troughing digging further south through the Plains than usual this time of year. Which will likely push a front into the state this weekend. The AO edging into the negative phase in the coming days also supports this (as I've seen in past years). Both Euro & GFS are even starting to hone in on modest DL shear getting deeper into the state as well in more recent runs. So stronger or more organized storms are not out of the question. Especially with a +PNA phase already in place as I've also seen over the years. Only real caveat later this weekend looks to be mostly meager mid-level lapse rates around 6 (except may be 7 in NTX). Next weekend or following week is looking steeper further south.