Stx_Thunder

Aside from today's svr threat, things still look to remain convectively active through next week in the state, with at least a conditional svr risk later this week or weekend over the southern half. And more of the state again next week. Even if this week's front (does) manage to push south of the state, it does not look like it's going to be enough to actually shut off the thunder risk. Especially, a cut off Low that looks to set up shop out west late this week. Not surprising being in May. But especially back in EN territory now already. There has also been a + PNA phase ongoing lately that likely also contributed to last week's bout of sig convective severe events in the state. Aside from the latter/early phase unit circle MJO. - - - Next week, what's most concerning to me right now is how steep ML Lapse Rates are forecast. Current projected values are bordering on crazy for (May) standards. Normally, no more than -7 to -8 range from what I've seen over the years in May. Steeper ML lapse rates in the state have easily been a notable trend (so far) this year. 'Definitely going to be LOTS of lightning in most cells no doubt, for sure if these kind of forecast values (-8 to -9 range) hold with ample CAPE and not much CIN likely to be in place again by mid-week.

Extremely interesting convective factors that lead to a (major hurricane force) straight-line wind event last Friday, over the mid-coast region around Point Comfort near Matagorda Bay. In the Victoria area. That max. recorded wind gust was even stronger than the EF-1 tornado damage (110 mph) that was surveyed in Victoria county that same day. And from the same, quite large & intense thunder cluster that developed near SAT around midday and intensified heading east-southeast toward the mid-upper coast in the early afternoon. Both that system and several other clusters late Thursday night - early Friday traveling W - E along the I-10 corridor from Del Rio - Houston (behind sfc cold front), also had a good amount of powerful + CG lightning strikes.

Solid supercell literally moving right over Del Rio right now. Hailstones could be even bigger than the 5 in. diameter report in Camp Wood a few hours ago. Definitely over 60 Kft tops. But could be very close to 70 !

Yep. 5 in. diameter happened today with the DRT - SAT lone supercell. And still have some potential tomorrow (Thursday).

Up to 3.5 in. hailstones reported so far this evening from ongoing supercell between Del Rio - San Antonio, in Camp Wood. More severe-warned cells are coming up further west in SWTX. Which likely means next ML shortwave is entering the state in WTX.

3 in. + hailstones appear to be ongoing in the elevated supercell with a very notable and large hail core on radar (sfc temp around 60 F), in Athens vicinity in NTX.

SPC has (Finally) got there act together. Indicating the level 2/2 severe hail intensity area in the latest D1 outlook this afternoon, very close to SAT. Which I mostly agree on for the very large (potentially 5+ in. hail) target zone. Convective initiation is beginning in the Edwards Plateau. San Antonio area no doubt, definitely needs to be on alert through this evening. Abnormally steep ML lapse rates around & above 8, evidently remain across the state today with large hail producing elevated storms ongoing behind the sfc polar front in N-NETX. Even where sfc temps are actually in the 50s.

Convective initiation could begin in N-CTX early this morning along the sagging cold front (southeast of Abilene) with the first incoming shortwave out west. Even that initial batch this morning could get severe with weakening MLCIN projected. I can already see light radar returns over Midland area, moving east as of typing this. Appears to be virga (west of the dryline), and reporting cloudy skies.

Despite SPC still not forecasting much severe risk in the state today, the threat (esp. large hail) is by *no means over in the state. Euro, GFS, and HRRR are all latching now onto stronger mid-level (H5 & H7) energy trailing further south through the state today. Instead of all the unrealistically forecasted ridging over the southern half the past days. Continued moderate DL shear around 50 - 60 knots, and still steep ML lapse rates of at least 7 - 8, in C & STX. But looks to remain closer to 8. Very large hail is definitely still a distinct possibility. A giant hail stone (5 in.) might not be out of the question later today over the Edwards Plateau region (west of San Antonio), with strong sfc heating likely getting into the 90s and possibly near 100 F. Especially with the dryline out there that could get intersected by the cold front. Such near extreme daytime instability (which is typical this time of year out there) could cause some initially explosive HP supercell development as some of the CAMs are indeed showing near Del Rio later today.

Grapefruit size hail reported from the fairly massive HP supercell ongoing just northwest of Cleburne. Already lots of hail reports today in NTX.

Primary threat today around DFW still looks to be svr/large hail, once again. Significant Hail Index Parameter on special 19Z UA obs this afternoon is even higher than it was on Saturday evening's 0Z UA obs that was 3.4 At 4.0 this afternoon. Definitely high for that hail parameter, no doubt. I have not seen it go that high anywhere before in the state. As far as I can remember.

'Can definitely believe all the clear-air CG lightning strikes. Considering all the severe hail dumping that unfolded in DFW Saturday night. But despite what NWS claims, those more powerful +CG strikes originating from near the tops of storms can definitely strike more than 15 miles away, as I've seen before.

As far as posting activity goes, nothing's changed for the almost 3 years I've been on here now. Really, the only time this state topic gets (real) activity is when snow or a tornado outbreak is forecast in NTX. Which is extremely typical on this wx forum. At least with snow. My goal here (with whatever energy & motivation I can use), is to cover all other wx aspects and parts of this big Lone Star state. Which is also why I do not include OK in these threads. Aside from that, you should already know this is a completely public thread. Anyone, can look up what's being said or discussed in here on major search engines, at least. Google is obviously a no-brainer. The thread view counter, does mean something.

DFW convective environment still looks worked over from Saturday night's slow-moving, significant hail & flood producing supercells. Which wasn't even 48 hours ago yet. Mainly cloud lightning so far on current lightning data (despite sfc temps around 90 F at 7 pm). Could definitely still be some lower-end severe hail with such abnormally steep mid-level lapse rates in place (8 - 9), and modest DL shear on obs soundings across the state today. But, those abnormally steep ML lapse rates could definitely contribute to a more significant large hail threat in C/STX with more widespread, moderate DL shear overspreading the state later this week.

Not bad for March: Especially considering last year's March (2025) was sig drier with all the wildfires that also occurred. If we keep this up in April & May (likely a good bet now with ENSO transition back to EN territory finally underway), much of the ongoing statewide drought conditions should be taken care of at least till later summer. Things are already looking pretty wet (for the time of year) this Easter weekend with substantial MCS activity likely, and then again into mid-April.

Grapefruit size hailstones (4.5" diameter) reported, and measured between Del Rio - San Antonio area from another large HP supercell tracking east/northeast off the Rio Grande in the past few hours. Several other 3 - 4" hail reports in that same discrete supercell track area as well early this evening.

Softball hailstones (4" diameter) were reported by TX DPS Saturday evening in deep STX. Along with several other large hail & damaging wind reports to go with it in/around Rio Grande City area. Large HP supercell developed just south of Zapata and slowly moved southeast along the Rio Grande river international border and persisted for a couple hours. Then broke up into a couple of other severe-warned cells in the same area before everything diminished late night. I'm sure precip totals in that area were extremely significant with all the hail and torrential rainfall lasting for a good while.

DFW radar storm totals up near 8" just southeast of the metro. Just in the past couple hours. Still looks very convectively interesting heading into the weekend and early next week with a meandering front and cutoff Low setting up out west over Baja region. Ensembles starting to trend on a faster, but stronger/deeper track into the state.

I would think the precip opportunity is definitely there for much of the Western and Central US for at least the next week or two, as subtropical ridging has been forecast (for over a week now) on both Euro and GFS models & ensembles to move off to the Eastern US. Which would obviously open the door aloft for more troughing to come in.

With the lack of sweeping cold fronts through early next week and subtropical ridging moving off to the Eastern US, things are already looking very interesting for a multi-day springlike (April/May type) convective pattern over the state with multiple MCSs or MCCs certainly possible. Starting later this upcoming week, to start March. Ensemble runs during the past week or so have been trending on higher rainfall amounts. Especially over CTX/NTX, up to 5 inches (even higher). Which is still way ahead of schedule for spring, just now entering March. So flash & river flooding will definitely be possible. Esp. with all the drought conditions of late. MJO is prog to head back into the latter phases with a new wave propagating through the Pacific in the coming week or so. Which will likely provide rainfall insurance. Esp. over Eastern half of state. Severe threat is bound to exist with this abnormal UL pattern setup with multiple, stronger shortwaves tracking through the state into next week. Especially near the 10th. Both Euro and GFS models & ensembles have also more or less, been keeping up on (increasing) shear values over the state. And even more persistent, steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C).

'Would not expect much cold over the Plains during the next few weeks. Especially, AO likely heading back into a stronger, Positive phase by the end of the month. And at least weak mid-level ridging lingering over the Plains on both GFS and Euro ensembles to start March. Though, ENSO appears to have officially begun its transition away from LN now. Late winter - early spring is typically when it starts. *May be something around mid-March.

New maximum daily rainfall records were set at DFW and Lubbock over the weekend, also. Both (old) records are from 2017.

Decent rainfall totals with the Friday - Saturday frontal system over the state, for February (being the driest month of the year). This should make some kind of impact on the drought coverage on this week's drought monitor update (that was nearing 100% coverage over the entire state). https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX

Looks a little interesting this evening with the ongoing severe risk and some more discrete clusters ongoing in S-SETX coastal region on the southern extent of the frontal convective line moving through ETX. Even outflow boundaries alone are producing strong gusts to 50+ mph in STX. Stronger support for lift aloft digging a bit further south in the state than usual (per Euro had projected all week) with the incoming SS trough. And this may also be an indication that ENSO has finally started its transition away from LN and hopefully toward the advertised warm/EN phase in the coming months. Which would likely make the upcoming severe season more interesting with the SS jet anchoring further south. Probably the bigger story today is rainfall amounts especially in NTX over 2" just in the past 24 hours with some flash flood alerts. Especially, considering we're currently in the driest month of the year. Very needed since over 90% of the entire state was already in some kind of ongoing drought status looking at U.S. drought monitor data on February 3rd.

I can only imagine how tough it is to stay comfortably warm. Especially when it goes on for days with the cold still in place in the state all this week. I was without power for only 2 days after hurricane Harvey (2017), and even that wasn't too comfortable either without A/C. 11 K people still look to remain without power in ETX tonight.