BTRWx

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Everything posted by BTRWx

  1. Late timing seems good for us! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/first-dates
  2. Wow! Excellent work there and thanks for sharing! Is there anything you would be willing to share with us about how you came up with that without giving away the actual years? eta: I see your discussion in the forecasting and discussion thread.
  3. The 1995-1996 -NAO is crystal clear now, but what could have caused it?!
  4. I'll be down that way next weekend and am so eager to see what happens!
  5. Whoever is able to determine the variable most responsible for pattern development of both great winters and non-existent winters during weak nina signals will become highly regarded in the wx biz. Any takers?
  6. This will be near banter-like, but one can't resist the potential from the latest CIPS Analogs that have October 1995 all over the top correlations for multiple upper level variables and multiple hourly frames!
  7. Interesting to see the NFL players bundled up in London during the pregame! eta: They are a few degrees above average despite that. (Low-Mid 50s)
  8. Jump on the SOI train while you can!
  9. It's also just a forecast as they like to say.
  10. From the afd... The reason I'm sharing that is I would like to know why so many mets do not seem to understand punctuation rules!
  11. The lack of archived upper air maps available sucks, but I did come across an interesting one from NOAA. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20111030.html Modeling for next week looks so similar to me! Notice how far north the 540 line was that day. We need the trough to tilt slightly negative for the goods. eps
  12. It doesn't get much better than that for this time of year even if winter sucks later on!
  13. Never have and never will, kudos!
  14. I definitely agree that November and December patterns are key to most winter setups. That 2010 November scenario leading into December and winter may have looked quite different if the time period of the torch over Greenland was earlier. Blocking impacts for this region in November, December, and January are very different.
  15. without much more than that unfortunately
  16. NOAA's winter outlook is torchy even for a nina. I rarely put much weight into their long range outlooks.
  17. The longer Greenland blocking is delayed (but not denied), the better! eta: What I mean by that is the existence of blocking is so important later on when considering its effect with climo. If blocking were to form today, would it be able to last long enough when we need it later in the winter? Imo, the last thing we want for winter as a whole is having blocking develop and fade before winter can even get going.
  18. I'm going to miss you up there by a month! I've always called Western New York my home away from home. I have relatives in the southern tier and within the Niagara towns.
  19. My response to that should be obvious without going into details about implications, for good reason.