mnchaserguy

First time I’ve ever seen them actually dance and it happened directly over my head. Can’t believe it.


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It's possible that the stronger band may have been more S of me. Usually I have the stronger bands up here on regular events that are brighter than this one tonight. Currently, as of 10:45, they are pretty faint now. Love the multi-color mix.  

Pretty awesome show in central MN. First time I’ve gotten to see them directly overhead and even south of me.


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I've observed that outside of the deep south and plains, tornadoes sometimes favor the margins of the highest CAPE.  There was a super sharp CAPE gradient over far SW Michigan.  The later batch of convection was associated with the leading edge of even higher CAPE with dewpoints near 70 pushing into the OV later in the evening.  This effect I've observed might just be a side effect of the wind being more backed in the lowest km near warm fronts or other types of horizontal temperature gradients.  The Michigan storms also seemed lower topped due to being closer to the upper low.  CAPE was possibly fatter despite being less overall.  The storms were also more strongly forced under an area of vorticity advection aloft as opposed to being driven by afternoon heating.

Yep. That's exactly what happened. I had committed to following 169 north (which involved going east on 34 from Afton) after the storm that produced the second of the three Creston-Afton-Macksburg area EF2s. Here is a lightning-backlit and contrast enhanced 500% zoomed-in grab from my GoPro as I was passing through Afton. I think I have a distant glimpse of it here, but that's it.



As I said in my earlier post, by the time I finally got a good view under the base near Lorimor, the tornado was gone (as evidenced by the relatively weak couplet in your RadarScope grab) and the storm didn't produce for me again before dark. Meanwhile, the view toward the third couplet was completely blocked by hills and trees west of 169, so I just considered it as something to avoid getting run over by rather than try to catch.

Great shots! I am still scratching my head as to how I managed to be in pretty much the same area at the same time and get jack squat for quality :twister:shots. I was on the storm that produced the initial Creston tornado when it first went tornado-warned southwest of Bedford, and observed this nice wall cloud just west of IA-148:
 

Taking 148 north through Bedford, I had to drive practically underneath it to get to my next east option. It was here that road options quickly became an issue, as I became trapped in a maze of unpaved roads trying go as fast as possible without sliding off as the base outran me and started producing. With some white knuckle driving I managed to make it back to pavement and emerge onto US-169 just east of Shannon City, a little ahead of the longitude of the couplet according to RadarScope. Blasting north and cresting a hill near Arispe at 7:34 (per timestamp of cell phone pictures I took which did not turn out through the raindrop-spattered windshield), this was my view ahead. One of those lowerings under the base is surely the first Creston tornado, but which?

Hindsight being 20/20 I should have taken a left instead of a right where 169 intersects US-34 and then I would have easily been able to see the second tornado. Instead I pursued the original cell to north of Lorimor and by the time I finally got a good view under the base, the tornado had lifted.

 
Hills and trees to the southwest obscured my view of the base of the second cell; so noting that it was also tornado-warned with an intense couplet I viewed this more as something to avoid getting run over by rather than try to see. I followed the base of the original cell a little further to the northeast, IIRC it later produced additional tornadoes but I broke off due to darkness rapidly setting in. I went back to 169 and found a spot that looked to be clear of the path of any couplets to pull over and wait out the RFD with blinding rain and strong, but fortunately not too crazy winds to clear the highway before heading north to Winterset and then toward home.

Managed to see two tornadoes in southern IA on Friday between Creston and Afton, IA. Both have been rated EF2. I also came into Osceola right after it was hit by what is the strongest (and also smallest) tornado of the group based on the damage surveys. Also included a screenshot of my location on radar. I was absolutely surrounded by tornado warnings, including being in three different warnings at once at one point.


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It’s the 84hr NAM. That’s all we need to know. Plus that sounding is a bit contaminated. 
So much can change this far out, especially with earlier season events. The potential spread for Saturday is quite large. We first need to see how the next couple of days evolve, then focus shifts toward the potential for early initiation on Saturday. 

This is about as nice of a forecast sounding as you can get. What can go wrong.


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Saturday is finally within range of the NAM and it is throwing out some big parameters across KS/OK. The dry line and warm front both look like good options. As long as things don’t go early, it could be a pretty big day. My biggest concern is storm motion. Forecast soundings showing bunkers right storm speeds at 40+ knots. That’ll make chasing difficult if those are accurate.


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I’ll be coming from Minneapolis on Friday so my plan is to chase the warm front Friday afternoon in Iowa. Now that it’s finally in range on the nam, central/southern IA looks to be where the warm front will set up Friday afternoon. Taken verbatim, the 12 nam shows an MCS developing across central Iowa with a tail end Charlie moving through a pretty good parameter space. That being said, this is only one solution several days out so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect right now. At this point, all I can plan on is leaving Minneapolis by 11:00 am and driving south to try to be in position for the afternoon. Friday could be impacted by convection from the night before, but right now Thursday looks to remain mostly capped. Even with parameters and moisture really ramping up after dark on Thursday night, most models look like they remain dry. I would think this would be a good thing for Friday so we don’t risk mid day convection ruining the atmosphere.

Saturday looks like a pretty solid day in the central plains. Dryline with deeper moisture in the warm sector with a strong jet streak overhead should lead to a good set up. Problem I see is some of the best parameters stay way south in southern OK, likely due to some early convection firing farther north. My current plan is to try to make it to KC on Friday night and head south to chase the dryline Saturday afternoon, possibly as far south as southwest OK if I have to.

Was hoping to chase Sunday but it looks like the system might be too far east for my liking by Sunday. Could be some potential right up next to the center of the low, similar to what happened in northwest IA last week. That would probably be a really conditional threat if anything.


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It’s a little outside of the geography of this sub but I am planning on chasing Friday and Saturday. Friday in Iowa along the warm front and Saturday farther southwest along the dryline in Kansas or maybe Oklahoma. Been a long time since I’ve done a little multi day chase so I am pretty pumped about this weekend.


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Made the last second decision to play northwest IA thanks to the dry slot cleaning out just enough to get things going. I should have left the house an hour earlier. Missed the tors but still saw a lot of good rotation and motion. I’m really surprised this thing didn’t produce while I was on it. The 0-3km CAPE must’ve been zapped just enough to keep the lowest levels of the atmosphere from being able to finish it off. Oh well. Solid first chase of the season.


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And of course, 0Z HRRR now cap busts SE IA despite a pretty sexy parameter space.
I don't give it a whole lot of credence given how much forcing ought to be present, but not exactly what I was hoping to see.

I want to chase tomorrow but it looks really messy. An initial band of severe storms comes through Iowa early afternoon and mixes up the environment. Highly doubt anything substantial happens after that initial band comes through, unless you get way down to southeast IA or northern MO, which is out of range for me on a Tuesday. Hoping the 0z CAMs look more promising for the later afternoon. The early band may still produce a couple tors but it’ll be damn near impossible to know where or when to be on it to have a chance seeing anything.


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Surprise snow here in MSP this morning. Roads are just wet but I bet we will pick up a quick inch in the grass. It’s coming down about as hard as it has all winter.


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Allegedly we got 10” here in Blaine Sunday night/Monday morning. Combined with the 4” we got last Thursday and the 4-6” we will have by the end of today, we will be close to 20” here in the last five or six days.


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Absolutely puking snow. Roads are completely covered. Building up that late March snowpack. This storm has been awesome. Finally kicked the doldrums of nothingness we’ve been in for months. 

It is snowing very hard at my house. Not very often we get all snow in 40-50 dbz returns around here.


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Sun starting to set, heavy returns incoming upstream. This is where we start stacking flake efficiently. It’s been steadily snowing all afternoon but probably only 2.5” accumulation. It’s been an awesome day of watching the snowfall with my kid. 

You know it's gotta be snowing if the SPC puts out a mesoscale discussion for snow (MSP to Wisconsin, right now)

Snowing pretty good here at the National Sports Center on the north side of MSP.


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Bill Borghoff did the afternoon forecast discussion. He mentioned watches coming soon. 

P&C was bumped up to 4.1” imby for tonight’s event. NWS must think the heavier band will setup over the twin cities. We shall see. 
 
P&C is at 17” for the Sunday/Monday storm. Shocked it’s that high tbh. Models have been trending more frozen precip today but given the complexity of the setup I think it’ll be a nowcast type of storm. 

We won’t have a White Easter, snow this time of year doesn’t last long.