BaltimoreWxGuy

GFS continuing its step back. Hardly any precipitation now. Not that this was much to track to begin with but it’s all over now 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My winter forecast for next year is some cold, some warm, some snow, some rain, some ice, some sun.

Now just stand back and marvel at my forecasting skill.

Don’t forget wind. And I received no ice this year so 

Yeah cuz we’ll get good wrap around with a low off Cape Cod!

Definitely a winter day today, on Saturdays I work at Meadowood regional park in Timonium. It’s a pretty popular park for soccer/lacrosse but also walking/running/dog walking. Not nearly as many people here this morning as the last couple Saturdays. It’s 31F and pretty darn blustery!

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

I agree. Someone asked me on my weather page what role climate change might be playing in the lack of snow this winter and past winters....this was my response. 
 

Good questions and it’s a complex answer in my opinion it isn’t simple. When we talk about climate change/global warming in relation to local weather and climate records, we have to remember that really legit weather record have only been kept for less than 200 years. But also have to keep in mind the rapid industrialization of urban areas in the same last 200 years. One would be a fool to think that rapid industrialization has played no role in weather and climate, particularly in urban areas over the last couple centuries. But I still believe our weather is dominated by cycles and weather patterns. The reason for the lack of snow this year is mainly simply because the pattern doesn’t support it. Storms have tracked to our west and that will always put us on the warmer side of the track with southerly flow. So climate change/global warming not only argues for a overall rise in global temperatures (which is happening) but also more extreme weather which is also happening. So over the last 30-40 years around Baltimore I think there’s been a higher frequency in Lower snow winters but I also believe there’s been a higher frequency in big snow storms over the last 30-40 years if that makes sense. So in my opinion, the years of many small to moderate snows that get us to near average are going to be more difficult to come by, but we’ll still see the occasional winters with 1 or multiple large snowstorms

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there's no comparison to the championship year. Blake and Dixon were often deadly and Baxter owned nearly every matchup. Bench was solid. In some ways the team that year reminded me of an NBA team. It often just didn't matter who was on the floor. It just worked. This year we HAVE to have Smith and Cowan on the floor for the majority of the game or else... That's quite a contrast to how the terps won it all. 

Looking at some of the teams out there I just don't see how the Terps can beat the likes of Duke and KU etc. Playing to perfection is the only recipe while teams like Duke and KU have much more leeway. I'm not expecting a championship honestly. It's possible but unlikely. A trip to the final 4 would be f'n amazing and even that will require taking down one or more better team(s) first. We'll see. 

I think most people see it this way...except for homer ass Scot Van Pelt lol

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I agree. Donta Scott could be that guy also. Without a consistant 3rd scorer,Smith and Cowan can only take them so far IMO.

There championship team had Dixon from the outside and Baxter on the inside but had Steve Blake who was an excellent 3 pt shooter and Drew Nicholas off the bench who could come in firing.

There lacking that this year. Not saying that cant win it all but Cowan and smith arent going to be able to have any off games.

Yeah, I agree. Call me a downer but I just don’t see them advancing past sweet 16. The thing they have going for them is college basketball lacks dominant teams this year but they’re gonna run into some team who is shooting well and they won’t be able to keep up. We’ll see, I’ll still try to enjoy it either way. 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

IMHO Ayala will be the reason if they are going to make a deep run. Smith and Cowan will do there thing. When Cowan drives and kicks out to Ayala for the open 3 can he hit it? Hes been inconsistant at best during the regular season. I think they  need a consistant 3rd scorer to go deep into March

Certainly possible but yeah they need the 3rd guy. He maybe won’t be the guy this year but I kinda like Donta Scott. Maybe not the most talented guy but he’s always hustling and following his shot. There’s definitely not a lack of hustle or effort on this team but they do lack the consistent scorer from the outside. Sometimes Ayala or Wiggins get a little hot but it’s super inconsistent. 2-14 from 3 last night to start. 

Misting here ahead of the rain/potential line. I wouldn’t think that bolds well for strong/severe chances 

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

That's interesting, I don;t think I have ever heard of a TRIPLE phase.  So there's the SS, NS and what's the third stream?

Polar

42 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What model is that?

The super storm model 

6 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Yes. This is true. Plus it's been raining at my house the whole time. Had a few flakes in the afternoon.  Now just a windy, driving light rain. Dynamics staying south for sure. Still 0.00 for the last 2 winters here. 

What’s your location?

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr is lookin snowier and snowier for E. NC and Se Va. Checkout the 1 hour rates.  Like 2.5"/hour ...fun stuff.  

 

Doesn’t look like this was accurate...looks like a bust for the higher totals to me..all the heavy stuff is in south North Carolina, the returns have been pretty weak all evening in the Norfolk/VA beach area 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Sure do and the trend has been obvious.  The globals esp the Euro was way too dry and suppressed even 36 hrs ago . Even the Gfs was too dry.  Timing looks good.  Qpf looks juicy . Good banding looks to develope.  Surface 30-34 should be easily overcome imo. I fully expect a large area of 3-6" with lollies of 8" maybe 10". But hey..I'm just tracking from afar for fun. 

I can’t disagree more. It’s a weak system. And the temps are marginal. A general 1-4” is the best call and that’s what the NWS and most outlets are going with. Maybe if EVERYTHING goes right a few lucky spots get 6” but you’re basing everything on the NAM 

Well PDIII needs to be sacrificed right now for these shenanigans

On another note, DT is now being cordial with me and showing meteorologists who are predicting even more than he is..some guy names Jamey Singleton lol

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro joins rest of guidance with upping snow totals down south   Even gets stray flakes into Md . Nams ftw lol

 

 

 

You realize the NAMS still show 7+ and in the case of 12k, a foot right? Let’s see what happens but I wouldn’t call it a win overall. 

DT messaged me on Facebook because I told him I thought he’s basing his forecast off the NAM. We’re currently having a back and forth on Facebook messenger lol

GFS backed down a bit for sure. Just not as good dynamically for NC resulting in cutting back snow totals. 

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's probably why he said "just about" DC.  

If Leonardtown Md is just about DC, sure. 

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

3km NAM also shifted north... not as much as the 12km NAM... but gets snow up to just about DC

ETA:  Can see the big shift north with the snow accum map lol (on PW)

It doesn’t get snow up to DC but yeah it’s  further north. 

DT is all in on the NAM lol 5-8” he says in his first guess for central eastern NC 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What else we got?

Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. 

1-2 flakes?

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it 

12 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I'm just kind of curious if you know what scapism actually was (or supposedly was).  I happened to run across in my usuall Wikipedia leisure reading.  So it caught my attention when I saw a beer named after it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaphism

 

Yeah if you go to my beer advocate link, it has the whole description about the name lol cool stuff