Yardstickgozinya

That said you have no skew t for our area to look at. Lol Pittsburgh Pittsburgh and Baltimore had it today.

If you look at the wind profile on the skew t log P it's Indicative to rain falling directly from under the core. Your getting everything dumped right on top of you.

There was a few significant super cell and hail matches on this mornings soundings for both Pittsburgh and Baltimore that I noticed along with mid upper level winds that could hold a Volkswagen above the freezing line.

I'm pretty sure I'm looking at a sloppy rfd horseshoe atm . Rfd Doesn't mean there's a tornado but a prett good indicator of a super cell. The Pic above is a lowering I noticed near the meso.

It's here, I'm looking at from PaulB in Mechanicsburg

If your talking about the one that took a right turn towards Harrisburg ,yep that little bugger looked nasty.

After a sleepy few weeks the beast awakes in a bad direction. Faraday cage anyone?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

They could escape the worst of what could have been and skirt the edge . I think it's hard to say atp.

I wonder how this will play out ? Looking at the radar things could start looking a little better or much worse for them soon . I don't know much about this system, but it's clear there are a lot of dynamics at play for them just by simply looking at the radar. The pivot like motion and training could keep Cumberland under that heavier stuff for a while.

Here is a view from KDIX Mt. Holly for a more detailed view for are eastern zones.

Radar estimations of over an inch for some of us now and over 2" in a few places for this event.

I hope you figure it out. Don't let anxiety from your condition exasperate it. I will be praying for you.

It's pretty wild how it keeps raining on both of us every night, but Harrisburg comes out almost dry. Maybe if I say it's dry, Harrisburg will magically start to rain. I know this method definitely works for snow and other weather and non weather related phenomenon.

Upgrade Eastern Pa.

Normally I wouldn't post these on marginal days like today and yesterday but given the slow and training nature of this system and drought conditions I have decided to. Keep I'm mind that both yesterday and today have less then a 5% risk of anyone in CPA seeing severe weatherat there local. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

Today's NWS forecast discussion , and spc discussion on th Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 509 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Multi-day stretch of wet weather continues into late week * A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this afternoon across east-central PA with localized downpours * Eventual breakdown of the stagnant/repeat wet pattern signals improving conditions for Mother`s Day Weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Training rain bands continue to track north-south across the Susquehanna Valley near the occluded frontal zone early this morning. MRMS data indicates hourly rain rates have leveled off quite a bit from last night at <0.50 inch/hr. Noticeably cooler and drier air has arrived in clear slot behind the front with areas of locally dense fog across the Laurel Highlands and south central ridges. The closed upper low responsible for the recent multi-day stretch of wet weather throughout most of CPA will begin to unravel and lift to the northeast into New England by 12Z Wed. Despite its pending departure, it will help to trigger another round of rain/showers and a few thunderstorms ramping up through peak heating. Hires guidance focuses isolated to scattered convection along the occluded front over east central PA this afternoon and early evening. Low-level convergence along the front and large-scale ascent associated with the 500mb low will combine with 500-1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, robust deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates to support a marginal wind damage/hail threat. Although PWs are on the decline, locally heavy north-south training downpours on low FFGs will also support the potential for isolated instances of flooding especially in areas where soils have been substantially saturated. Trailing shortwave energy on the backside of the departing upper low should maintain showers into tonight particularly over the southern tier of CPA before POPs gradually decrease into early Wednesday morning. Highs will be +/- 5 degrees either side of early May climo with cooler conditions (60-65F maxT) in the western Alleghenies and milder temps (65-75F) throughout the Susquehanna Valley or ahead of the occluded front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A brief respite or lull in the frequent rain showers is expected into midweek as the upper low continues to pull away from the region. We still can`t rule out a few showers especially across the northern mtns Wednesday PM - but on the margin it should be drier vs. recent days. Highs trend a bit warmer on balance with daytime maxes in the 65-75F range. The lull in the precip will be short-lived with yet another upper trough fcst to close off over PA by Thursday night. Rain showers and a few t-storms are likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with ensemble data placing max POPs across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Temp trends for Thursday should be flat to down day over day with the most noticeable change in the northern tier with highs falling back into the 50s followed by mins in the 35-40F range Thursday night. The full discussion is in the link. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I'm still getting bouts of light rain but this is probably the last gasp until we destabilize again later today.

Its still trying to train some up.

Hence, the disclaimer. I now realize that the soundings were actually observed at 12:00am and 12:00 pm, which is crazy to me. I have been adding 5 hours to account for central time zulu, so I thought that the soundings were taken at 5am and 5pm. Now it all makes sense, I think. lol

Idk ? Any help?