Stormchaserchuck1

Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo.

It's easier to use, save, animate, quick loading time, doesn't go down being a NOAA site. I don't think there is a very big difference between the quality of all the different maps. If something is better, I would use it.

I'd say it's more -PNA/-PDO with a ridge south of the Aleutian islands and trough over Alaska. 12z GEFS was really strong -PNA around the 24th, with this central N. Pacific High pressure. We don't trend toward snow when this. https://ibb.co/4twbnfY

23z Hrr looks a little bit better. https://ibb.co/nDFbQ8Y

Will do. 23z RAP still showing 6" up here.

Low pressure is a little N in Tenn from where models had it.

lol yeah models are a mess

GFS and NAM were doing the same thing last time.. It's a 984mb low off of Ocean city 16 days from our coldest of the year.. good chances imo. It may end quickly though.

They will bust low like the last 2 times.. I expect Winter Storm Warnings to go up N of I-95 right before, or during the storm.

20z Hrr brought the heavy snow totals furthest SW of all model runs so far, 6" to Frederick, MD. I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in Harford Co. to get 4-6".

eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models.

The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7".

6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr.

Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z

3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW

closed 500mb https://ibb.co/Fg4gcGV

19z Hrr appears to be shifting a little south vs 18z.

19z RAP gives DC 4".

It's transferring, but yeah a little SW.

Low pressure is on the VA/NC border at 16hr vs being off the coast of OC 22hrs 12z.

Precip not in NYC at 14hrs vs being in central Mass at 20hrs 12z. Storm is a little SW.

Pretty big differences on the 18z NAM for being 10hrs out.. sea-level low is further SW.

wow.. still stronger near NYC

18z Hrr is trending a little south 17hr vs 17z

whoa the 17z RAP still snowing