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Wow

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  1. Just now, beanskip said:

    Really, there are fine details, but this is about as consistent as a model run can be vs. its prior run, esp. given complex pattern. 

    Agree.. the transition of temps through the column as CAD builds and precip advances isn't going to get shaken out until it's nearly go time

    • Like 1
  2. 1 minute ago, Lookout said:

    not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 

    0z canadian does the same thing btw. 

    Yep, and I've always noticed the UL progression most always trends stronger at the last minute with a cutoff with this big snowstorms.. always the last piece of the puzzle

  3. 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation.

    As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities.

    Rain1209-112018-SE.jpg

    Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase.

    Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs. 

    The Don has spoken.  Thank you, Don.

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  4. 7 minutes ago, beanskip said:

    Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

    Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

    This thing is coming.  

     

     

    Get your ass back in NC! :D    Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  

     

    Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

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