Wow

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?

Need precip to really move in and crash the temps.. it's slower, thus the warmer temps

Just now, burgertime said:

On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 

 850 temps are within a degree or 2 of 0... close

Euro thru 60 hrs

FV3 trend @41 hrs...

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. 

NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies.  Flatter, weaker southern wave.  Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot.  Good stuff.

3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. 

EDIT: 12z version seems flatter?

The s/w is weaker and flatter... This will certainly keep the ice away and make this more rain vs. snow.  Looks more like the GFS in that sense

Just now, Thor said:

Pretty amazing wall the moisture is hitting on 12z nam

 

 FWIW, 850 line near the NC/SC border

Just now, CentralNC said:

Just feels to me (maybe my old bones) that this is trending south for highest amounts for snow.  The "finger" on radar seems more W-E instead of NE and it is below my latitude.

The "finger" means more about trajectory then amounts IMO.  I'd prefer to see it south and more west to east.  That tells me more suppressed (not necessarily weaker!) and less worry about WAA.

Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend

18z vs 0z  FV3
 

Just now, griteater said:

Nudged south maybe it looks like??

A bit.. and colder, based on visual of the 850 line

Stop yammering, people

GFS definitely shifted south.. at 60 hrs.. r/s line down to state line

Precip shield a bit further south thru 42

NAM actually much closer to the FV3.. and colder than 12z.  Actually has a stronger CAD signature

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Don't know if it will matter, but at hour 30 the surface low is well north of previous runs in E TX. 

I think it's just the precip shield.  The low itself is now slightly south at 36

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.

I gave up on it after Feb '14.  

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Nothing but many consistent for the fv3


.

It really has been quite consistent.  Here's a trend loop of the last TWENTY runs of the FV3 total snowfall...

This is nearly all snow north of 85... transition zone south of there

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

18z GEFS means looking healthier 

Yes.. reversed itself from the 12z output.  Good to see.

FV3 trended south and colder

Total precip FV3... precip shifted south a bit.. barely making it into C VA

It's all green because the sfc temps are just above freezing.  The mid levels are all below.  That's a good sign.  In fact, 850 temps are colder at 54

NAM looking much better. 

thru 90 hrs: