arlwx12

From the latest LWX discussion: (snip) Precip will spread across the region Saturday. Warm air aloft will overrun cold air near the surface, with a snow/sleet mix possible briefly at onset for many areas along and west of I-95. Accumulations of snow/sleet should be minimal as warmer air moves in aloft quickly, but a bout of freezing rain is becoming increasingly likely west of US-15 in particular Saturday afternoon and evening. Held off on any watches as 0.25" probs of ice are still modest, but the trend especially in hi-res guidance is up. Low pressure will move across the region Saturday night and keep a prolonged period of moderate rainfall in the region. An additional half to three-quarters of an inch of rain is possible. Because of cloud cover and rainfall Saturday night, low temperatures will bottom out in the middle 30s, which is about 10 degrees above average. Upslope snow in the Appalachians are expected to taper and come to an end gradually on Monday. Gusty winds will diminish as well throughout the day. Highs on Monday will be nearly 20 degrees colder than Sunday when the cold front will have passed through the region. One thing to note, cold high pressure that had set up shop behind the passing cold front on Sunday will be reinforced by a second area of high pressure Monday night through Wednesday. This high will keep temperatures Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday below average. This reinforcement of cold air could set the stage for a winter storm that could bring accumulating snow to much of the region Wednesday night through late Thursday. As more information comes in, we will be fine-tuning the timing, precipitation type, and precipitation amounts with this mid-week storm.

I hope that the 19/20 storm threat goes out to sea. If it does, I may stay in the top 10 in the snowfall contest. If it doesn't, I may have to bribe the lawn care people AGAIN to shovel me out.

WTOP said Frederick schools finally decided to close.

Just about all the DC-area schools are either closed or using remote learning, except for Frederick MD currently 2-hour delay but will reevaluate by 7. The Feds are on a two-hour delay/unscheduled leave or telework, Andrews a two-hour delay, Forts Belvoir and Meade "closed".

TV shows are citing over 40 crashes in Northern VA, MD troopers saying over 150 statewide.

Arlington must have treated/plowed my Hill of Doom. Slush/ruts in the street, plowed-in cars with lots of snow still on top of them.

DCA just posted 6 inches of snow depth.

NWS said DCA has a snow depth of 3 inches.

I think it was channel 5 that said BWI has a ground stop until 8 pm. There's at least 2 1/2 inches on my trees and shrubs near Crystal City.

WTOP just had a guy on claiming there was 3" in the area of Lake Barcroft (west of Bailey's Crossroads). Arlington finally DID treat my Hill of Doom near Crystal City, but the snow started accumulating on the road again. My shrubs and trees have somewhere around 1.5-2 inches.

My Hill of Doom just got coated. NOT with brine. An inch or more on the shrubs and fence.

Sidewalks and driveways starting to get covered near Crystal City.

Near Crystal City, visibility down to 1/2 mile or less. About a half-inch of snow on the shrubs, cars getting covered, pavement still clear.

Grass is caving near Crystal City, starting to stick on cars.

TOP just said Fredericksburg schools are closed tomorrow.

Starting to stick to shrubs and tree twigs. Still too warm on the car and roads.

A few dozen flakes near Crystal City. Arlington still hasn't brined my Hill of Doom- maybe they thought rain would wash it away.

Fox Weather just showed snowflakes coming down in Stafford VA.

Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Caroline- Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, Rehoboth Beach, Georgetown, Denton, Dover, and Chestertown 301 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 7 inches, with localized totals as high as 7 to 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern Delaware and northeast Maryland. * WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

My radio just alarmed me.

Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bedford, and Somerset 231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Bedford, Fulton, and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Lancaster, Chambersburg, Gettysburg, and Carlisle 231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. * WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Lancaster, and York Counties. * WHEN...From 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

My big question is Will it stick? The latest hourly guidance from NWS claims it won't get to freezing around DCA on Tuesday until almost midnight. Must be why Arlington hasn't brined my Hill of Doom yet.

NWS on a bit further to the south... Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 240 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and a light glaze of ice accumulation. * WHERE...Portions of east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday.

I'm a bit puzzled. Can someone please explain to me how NWS says DCA gets over 4" of snow when the temperature is scheduled to be above freezing at that spot for the entire event? Is this event "decorator snow" versus ground depth?

Oh NO!! As a warminsta, I thought I and DCA might get nothing. The NWS winter weather update map Snow and Ice Forecasts & Services Expected: 4" Best case for me: >1 Worst case: 7" Of course, this could all change by Monday morning.