RU848789

Snow ratio time. I like the cuboid method over the core method: I simply carve a 10" x 10" slice of snow and shove it into a big bowl, melt it and measure the volume vs. the snow height I measured (it's a much bigger volume than most cores, so it should have less error associated with the measurement. I had 9832 cc volume in my 10"x10"x6" cuboid vs. 1180 cc of melted snow, so my ratio was 8.33:1, which was very close to Newark's 8.4:1. I suspect it was much lower over the first hour or two, when we had 1/4" or so of sleet followed by fairly wet snow, but that was maybe the first inch of depth. Once we started getting higher intensity snowfall it clearly was at least 10:1 ratio snow as the flakes were very nice dendrites (although a little wet until later in the storm). Also, I had estimated we'd have ratios around 8:1 for most of 95, before the storm and at least EWR and I got very close to that, while Kuchera estimates were in the 6-7:1 range, depending on the model. I get why Kuchera is used - I'd just rather do my own estimate. So much for the concerns over the ratio of the snow that fell from the sky. And while we're at it, this storm also reconfirmed that snow will easily accumulate on all surfaces, including roads (and even treated, heavily traveled roads) at above 32F temps after a warm previous day and after a bunch of rain had fallen, as long as there is enough intensity. The equation governing this is so simple: accumulation rate = snowfall rate - melting rate. And accumulation is only a challenge initially, when there's bare/wet ground at 33-34F, which is why the snowfall rate needs to be greater to overcome that initial melting rate; once there's a layer of snow/slush on the ground, the new "ground" is 32F snow/slush meaning the melting rate is far less than for bare ground and subsequent snow will accumulate easily (as 33-34F air does minimal melting of snow given air has 1/20th the heat transfer coefficient of wet ground). There are certainly times where the intensity isn't enough to overcome that initial melting rate and we get a white rainstorm. This wasn't one of them.

My snow ratio today was 8.3" snow per inch of liquid, which is pretty close to Newark's 8.4 from above. Sad that CPK's was 4.2, half of Newark's. I know the UHI is more significant in Manhattan but I would think being in the Park would reduce that difference somewhat. Still makes me wonder if they have measuring issues in CPK, although hard to imagine it being off by more than 10-20% vs. the 100%+ difference between EWR and CPK. But at least maybe it would've been more like LGA's 5.2, which would've given CPK 4.0".

Agreed, felt like March and I'll take a 6" storm anytime...

Yeah, just saw that too; wasn't mine as I had 6.0" and didn't report it yet (I usually do post them on the NWS FB page - sometimes they get used, sometimes not). Surprised that Metuchen seems to have gotten the most in Middlesex County, although I've seen reports not too far N of us in Union County (Westfield, Roselle, etc.) of 7-8", so maybe not a surprise. Maybe that subsidence death band hurt folks south of us more than it hurt us and we did get a hellaciously good band, getting 1.75" in one hour through 8:30 am.

Thanks!!

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2". This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks. And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2". This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks. And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

you don't, although I did clear the board around 11:00 am (allowed every 6 hours), so the last inch plus will be less compacted. It is important to have the board or whatever measuring spot out of the indirect sunlight, as that will melt the snow a bit at the surface, increasing compaction; my spot is on the north side of my house.

That friggin' subsidence hole killed us for 3 hours. I went from 4.0" at 8:30 am to 5.4" at 11:30 am which is 1/2" per hour vs. the 1.75"/hr I got before 8:30 am and many others in CNJ/NNJ continued to get 1-2"/hr rates. Conservatively, I'm guessing we missed out on at least 2" of snow. Damn. Is coming down good now - could get to 6" if lucky...

As of 11:30 am, it's 33F and snowing moderately with 5.4" OTG, so only 0.4" the last hour, as rates just haven't been great, missing out on the best bands for the last 3 hours; we had 4.0" at 8:30 am, so only 1.5" the last 3 hours while the good bands were giving people 1-2" per hour (we got 1.75"/hr before 8:30 am). Oh well. One last band to go through in the next 30 min or so and if we're lucky we'll get to 6", but not sure, although as I'm typing this the snow has gone to almost heavy for the first time in hours, so maybe.

As of 11:30 am, it's 33F and snowing moderately with 5.4" OTG, so only 0.4" the last hour, as rates just haven't been great, missing out on the best bands for the last 3 hours; we had 4.0" at 8:30 am, so only 1.5" the last 3 hours while the good bands were giving people 1-2" per hour (we got 1.75"/hr before 8:30 am). Oh well. One last band to go through in the next 30 min or so and if we're lucky we'll get to 6", but not sure, although as I'm typing this the snow has gone to almost heavy for the first time in hours, so maybe.

Well we finally got out of that terrible subsidence band the last half hour and picked up about 0.4" to get to 5.0" as of 10:30 am. Temp 33F.

Well we finally got out of that terrible subsidence band the last half hour and picked up about 0.4" to get to 5.0" as of 10:30 am. Temp 33F.

As of 10 am, it's 32F and we have 4.6" of snow, as we only got 0.1" that last half hour being stuck that goddamn subsidence hell hole! We've probably lost 1.5" from that subsidence. About to fill in at least. We only have about 2 more hours of snow, so unless it cranks, my guess is we only get about 6".

As of 10 am, it's 32F and we have 4.6" of snow, as we only got 0.1" that last half hour being stuck that goddamn subsidence hell hole! We've probably lost 1.5" from that subsidence. About to fill in at least. We only have about 2 more hours of snow, so unless it cranks, my guess is we only get about 6".

I can't complain too much as we did way better than most in CNJ/NENJ this year by getting lucky with good bands, which is why I had 7.3" before this storm. Still hoping we get to 6-7" assuming it fills in and we snow well for 2 more hours. We'll see.

As of 9:30 am 4.5" of snow on the ground at 32F as we only got 1/2" over the last hour, due to being stuck in what looks like a subsidence lull. Might keep us from getting above 6" if this doesn't end soon.

As of 9:30 am 4.5" of snow on the ground at 32F as we only got 1/2" over the last hour, due to being stuck in what looks like a subsidence lull. Might keep us from getting above 6" if this doesn't end soon.

I'm assuming that's subsidence and not a dry slot per se - we're stuck in it too

Here's a quote from a friend of mine who was at the NWS in New Mexico for 30+ years: "Been years since I’ve seen the models perform so poorly…especially in the east. One of my coworkers was a modeler in Environment Canada. We were talking how ******* the performance has been with this system. He thought it was because the upper wave went across the Rockies where drag slowed it down and weakened the system. A combination of fewer inputs into the models that far west and the diffuse nature of the upper system (and model resolution) had a big effect in model performance. This is something he has seen before (he is more into theoretical meteorology)."

Been snowing pretty heavily the past hour, so as of 8:30 am we have 4.0" on the ground, so that was 1.75" the past hour, which is ripping. Just did my first driveway/sidewalk shovel and that's heart attack heavy snow, especially the bottom half which has the sleet/wetter snow. The snow the past hour has to be greater than 10:1 ratio snow - much drier and gorgeous dendrites. 32-33F right now.

Been snowing pretty heavily the past hour, so as of 8:30 am we have 4.0" on the ground, so that was 1.75" the past hour, which is ripping. Just did my first driveway/sidewalk shovel and that's heart attack heavy snow, especially the bottom half which has the sleet/wetter snow. The snow the past hour has to be greater than 10:1 ratio snow - much drier and gorgeous dendrites. 32-33F right now.

Puking snow right now - heaviest in 2 years!

Puking snow right now - heaviest in 2 years!

As of 7:30 pm, 32F and snowing heavily with 2.25" OTG, so that's 1" in the last hour. With maybe 4-5 hours of snow left, think we can get to 6" but maybe not my 7.2" forecast unless we really get into a heavy band for awhile.