konksw

I’ll take 9 inches no problem. Even 7 snow and 2 sleet. Looks great.

Looks nice down there so far.

But then immediately rush right back in?

Thanks. It feels unbelievable. Maybe it’ll happen but having a hard time buying what it is selling in my head.

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

I could show other ways for it to fail with a crayon. But that doesn’t mean they’re right.

Pretty close range with 8.8 expected and 10 being the 10% boom scenario.

Does ice include sleet in that context?

10F -10.5 dew point. NW DC.

So the Euro folded to the GFS after all the shit the GFS took.

18.5/-9.1

I think the sleet is overblown.

18.9 degrees

19 degrees in NW DC.

How many times has that happened with this level of significant cold in place?

Maybe the GFS is just right?

HRRR? I know it’s far out for it but…

Seems like a pretty consistent array of outcomes that fall within the WSW of 7-14” of snow and sleet for DC from SE to NW and the ultimate figure will rest on how quickly we transition and where the banding sets up.

Is it possible the models just aren’t handling the cold in place very well?

Where do you see that?

Winter Storm Warning for DC. 7-14”

Winter Storm Warning Severity: Severe Significant threat to life or property Weather Event Onset 11:00 PM (EST), January 24 Description * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday night, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period wind chills in the teens and single digits is likely beginning this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

Because of the NAM??

Yes but I think most were hoping for the largest snow since 2016. That falls short of 2019 and at least one of last years much less hyped storms.

is it?