RUNNAWAYICEBERG

East folks will remember this for a very long time. Jan 15 2.0

On 2/10/2018 at 12:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good choice that season, huh?

lol, ya.

this is the week thats usually my calling card to cancel or not....i admit, things looked bleak just a week ago but we turning the corner. Just hope it aint a fraud 7 day atl regime that farts a small event before the pac drives spring on us. 

Enjoy Africa dude.

Legendary status can never be taken away from you....just take a look at OJ. 

Why am I being quoted when it was not my post? lol

2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Not familiar with the terminology, do tell

becs = biblical east coast snowstorm (lifetime event)

mecs = major east coast snowstorm (practically once a winter event)

In between becs and mecs, though, is hecs = historical east coast snowstorm.

So, it was sarcasm on how some have had it so good lately that 24” is just another run of the mill snowfall. 

On 10/18/2017 at 5:48 PM, LoveSN+ said:

I simply cannot fathom being disappointed by 2 ft of snow. 

24” is a BECS for most but only a MECS for some. ha.

Ah, the days when the euro was dead on with ec snow storms by being Dr No for nyc area folk. 

5 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Is this what NE snow weenies do after a forecast bust? 

Yea, up until I somewhat learned how to read a nam snow map and based my forecasts off it. Then, it’s no ones fault but the stupid computers.

Ooooh, I see it. Of course ORH still cashed in. I was in CNJ at the time and recall it being a major forecasting fail but never really understood why, scientifically. I berated twc and local news channels mets until PD2. 

Yea that 2nd Jan event was good. It’s generally a good rule for coastal snows in WCT when E LI mixes. 

For example: Mar 17 had the 500 low traverse over nw ct and points ne so it makes sense why amounts busted south of there. But Mar 01 had the 500 low traverse pretty far south. 

Thats what I was looking at and still couldnt decipher it...I understand the dynamics why but couldnt put it together on the upper air charts.  

Ugh Jan 05, another painful memory.

Speaking of painful memories, I was looking back at Mar 01 charts and I still dont understand the “weaker” amounts south of pike. 500mb and 700mb both look like it should of put 2-3’ down from nyc northeast. What am I missing?

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

I think bermuda ridges can to be under modeled too. Seems like cold regions like Greenland, models tend to overdue the ridging and warm regions like the west Atlantic tend be to underdone. I have zero data to back this up though. 

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

The Euro's precip depiction through Sunday would send me straight to the Tobin if it were January.

We wish it south now and flip the table in 6 months?

15 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Just something to talk about... Ugh the weather has been boring..

Boring summer weather is fantastic. Lets leave the excitement for the cold months. 

When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things:

 

It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable

Agree. Sorry but he ripped the gfs and other east models to shred. he ripped TWC for only going 8-12 in NYC. Well, when you are wrong, you should get blasted for it. Dont dish it if you cant take it. 

This will go down as one of the Euro's poorer performances.  Ultimately what NCEP kept noting on it being too slow vs the other models continued to bite its' forecasts.   I'm hoping the CMC products are missing something and are kicking the low NE too fast in the morning.  NAM and GFS are very nice. 

 

Looking at the WV and analysis, at least through it's first 6-12 hours I really like the 0z GFS.

Dood...your gonna get pounded. The later capture is perfect for you....and this will capture/stall. 

The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west.

I think a compromise is certainly reasonable at this juncture. Very tough forecast for the western edge...but it always is with these. 

Forecasting all-time records generally isn't a good idea. I still think 18" for HVN and BDL though. 

I'll take that for sure. 

Exactly.  You'll have some fun in the snow tomorrow.

No, I think they are wrong. 

Upton gradually shifted their map to the east, still showing insane amounts. 

Euro is all alone again it will tick NE tonight for sure

I might have to take a nap to cool off my ocd....because I'm obsessing whether or not the euro will fail for the western part of the system. I'm torn.

Miller Bs seem like they take longer to develop than models indicate.