RUNNAWAYICEBERG

We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet.

Are we hyper reacting to a d4 gfs op run much?

Keep the gfs right there. Have the euro be a little amped. Blend it 70/30. Boom.

dc to nyc crushed hr102.

Confluence looking a little more pressed this run, or it could be noise and not matter.

Jimmy is excited, it’s all good. Let the weenie fly out and fly high.

Months and months.

Blocks don’t always equal 36hr storms. The huge 50/50 is transient here.

Ah ok. I see what you’re saying. Doubt the primary is so strong that it floods the mid levels into CPA though. If this slows another 12-24hrs, then maybe. I could be wrong but now I know what you’re getting at.

It’s possible but I like where we sit. A 10” spot on a d4 eps mean is pretty sweet.

There is more to the mid atl then dc and philly. Interior mid atl will do just fine when the low gets captured around the delmarva or nj coast. I’m not sure what we’re even debating anymore lol.

That’s a good spot where the primary fades and kinda merges into the deform goodies.

Look at MD and SEPA. tucked low caused SNJ to rain and miss the goods and not because the system gets kicked east. But the mid atl is not just big I95 cities. Id be happy it I was NW of philly right now.

Yea, big numbers there.

Pretty big on a mean at d4-d5 but you can begin to see the early capture in the mid atl and then the seconday max in ema.

Stamford to philly is a 2hr ride but then again we consider Stamford pretty much NYC anyway.

A little better from OKX: A srn stream low pressure system moving across the lower Mississippi Valley Tue night will weaken W of the Appalachians on Wed while a secondary low takes shape near Hatteras. This system will have plenty of Gulf and eventually Atlantic moisture to work with, as well as a continued supply of low level cold air from the strong high to the northeast, so as this system approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all snow at this point with a good chance of significant accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be modeled too strong, and if it does retreat more quickly that could allow for a more N/W low track, as well as potential for mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine air and possibly warmer air aloft get involved.

So that’s where the bodies are buried.

That’s the play. Smell it and taste it.

Yea. You may not have to drive far. Interior EPA looks good atm.

We might play with fire but I’m ok with it. I sent out my initial SWC email today to my family and friends saying 8-12” from Merritt on north, as a preliminary heads up.

Slower leading to more tucks:

I kid obviously. I should have said the ‘massive gigantic biblical’ amounts are a mirage.

It depends how big or small ones hands are. Big to me, is 20-30”.