LakeEffectOH

Yes, with thunderstorms and tornadoes, the NWS sends out the polygon warnings for localized areas but these warnings are short lead time warnings and are of short duration. Also, severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings are for weather entities that already exist. Localizing LES warnings, with current forecasting methods and technology, would be difficult as what you said about it not being easy to tell where a band will set up (The entity does not yet exist.). Also, LES bands are fickle as they can hang around for hours and dump snow or they can be in and out in less than an hour as they were this morning. Bands/cells can pop up and dissipate within minutes so it can be like nailing jello to the wall.

Like last year when the Legendary Polar Vortex (per media hype) with its subzero cold was accompanied by very little LES. Even lake effect cloudiness was limited.

What a dud of an event. Air is just too dry...that's the problem with these really cold air masses as they come with really dry air that all but wipes out the LES. It's better to have a moderately cold air mass as more moisture is available for the LES bands to develop...an unfrozen lake also helps too.

...I figured they would. With the cold we have now, the second shot of cold (guidance suggests sub-zero lows on Sat with temperatures climbing little during the day) the ice coverage will really increase. Our hope for good LES is either a good Huron Connection or some warm windy storm cutting west (during the so-called thaw the models are suggesting to happen in the 11-15 timeframe) to break up some of the ice.

That/those band(s) will eventually swing back up towards the CLE Metro. Questions are...will the air be so dry that these bands will dry out and the snow showers will be more widely scattered? When the bands or the area of LES does swing back north, will it be another quick hitter minimizing accumulations? Just how much will the reduced open water coverage on L. Erie affect cell/band development? This event has definitely under-performed thus far. Good news is that the GFS, GFS Para and the GEM are bullish on the clipper coming through tomorrow night & Friday. Models indicate several inches possible in the snowbelt. We'll see what the Euro says in the next hour. On edit...ECMWF shows potentially 2"-6" accumulations (with the high snow ratios) across the primary snowbelt. Suggests a couple of inches for the rest of CLE metro.

Interesting how the main snow band seems to be setting up in the Akron-Canton area. Talk about reverse lake effect...

Yeah, it is pretty rare. However, during the snowy 2000s, we had a lot of Huron Connection (HC)events. I remember one big one in early Dec. 2005 when Chardon got over 20" from the event. HC started in the early AM and lasted into the evening. I think the last decent one was in early Dec. of 2010 (really been awhile). Chardon had about a foot and a half from that one. Usually we have a significant HC(>10") at least once a winter, but since 2011-2012, we haven't had any decent HCs. Actually, every winter from 11-12 up to the present has been dull in terms of good snow storms.