First that is going to end up being a Lake Superior blizzard cuz it's the GFS
Second I take into consideration all factors beyond trackable, possible SSWE, 30 day long range outlooks, MJO, fading or not fading Nina. Worked well the last two years holding onto the ball, not great snow numbers last years but still had 12-13" more inches of snow and seasonable cold. 2020 punted it into the stratosphere and never looked back. Have to say this year is looking difficult going to need a timeout.