Volcanic Winter

19 hours ago, BxEngine said:

And sunset at 3:30 pm

Sounds like Iceland this time of year. 
 

Wife and I headed there at the end of the month for our ten year anniversary! 
 

What would be the difference between having say just the NAO negative vs having both AO and NAO negative? I have a decent level of basic comprehension of this stuff, but I’m still learning certainly. 
 

When both are negative are we more likely to see a broader, deeper trough over the eastern seaboard? Easier to sustain? Better pipeline for Canadian Arctic air? What would the actual impact, let’s say, of having both negative vs one or the other. I know this varies, I’m just asking in terms of average forcing or pattern. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol.

You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC

Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. 
 

Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all. 

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sayonara to my Poconos growing season, it was in the 20s there.  Still got awhile to go here-- it's very rare to get an October freeze where I am right now-- it's only happened twice in the last 30 years.

Are you near MJX? They have sandy soil and radiate heat as well as FOK does.

I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. 
 

I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. 
 

Commute up to near EWR for work. 

My low for the weekend was 32.7 on the Tempest; incredible!

Definitely live in a cold pocket of my area of TR (10+ miles inland from shore and backed up to forest, away from main roads). 

Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. 
 

Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October). 

I love looking at those, but damn there are so many color coded charts in meteorological data where the differentiation between colors is just a monumental challenge to decipher.

I pretty much can’t tell the difference between 57F water and 67F water on that. 
 

Eh, it’s probably my eyes. 

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944.  30s in 1958/1904.

Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough). 

Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). 
 

I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. 
 

Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me! 

At 5.89 inches total. Incredible. 

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first 3 days of October are about 12° cooler than the entire month was last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2022	52.5	28
2021	64.4	0
2020	58.1	0
2019	60.4	0
2018	57.4	0
2017	63.8	0
2016	58.9	0
2015	57.2	0
2014	59.3	0
2013	59.6	0
2012	58.8	0
2011	58.1	0
2010	58.3	0
2009	55.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	64.4	0
2	2017	63.8	0
3	2007	63.5	0
4	1971	63.1	0
5	1990	62.4	0
6	1984	62.2	0
7	1949	61.6	0
8	1963	61.2	0
9	1995	61.0	0
-	1947	61.0	0
10	2019	60.4	0
-	1954	60.4	0

Love the data Bluewave, thank you as always. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. 
 

Newark October temperature departures

2021…..+6.9

2020….+1.5

2019…..+3.8

2018…..+0.8

2017…..+7.2

2016…+2.3

2015….+0.6

2014….+2.7

2013….+3.0

2012…..+2.2

2011……+1.5

2010……+1.9

2009…..-0.8

 

+6.9, +7.2… oof! Yeah I distinctly remember wearing shorts through most Octobers the past ten years, makes sense lol. 
 

I do hope we’re not wasting our shot at +PNA this season, but I’m fully expecting and interesting winter regardless. Hopefully it’s memorable for the right reasons!

Is this still technically Ian, or did a new low develop offshore? It looked like Ian died inland and a new low developed from Its energy offshore. I don’t know this stuff as well as many of you but I’m curious. 
 

And I guess there’s a near absence of steering winds aloft to move this out and hence the stall / stationary movement?

My tempest. Insane rain past couple days:

1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

How can you love it.  Nothing fun about being stuck inside

Invest in a good hard shell. Rain never has to keep you indoors. 
 

I guess it takes a certain mindset, but I can enjoy being outside in the rain. It helps having the right clothing though. 

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

good to have a weak polar vortex now so it gets nice and strong in december <3 

It just ain’t modern Christmas around these parts if we aren’t in shorts and flip flops. 

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

Yeah, we’ve only had like two winters in the past decade I’ve lived in inland TR where snow seemed to fall regularly and not melt instantly. Of course it doesn’t happen often, but it can happen which is the main point. I think 2013 and 2014 were the winters I’m thinking of. 
 

Nothing feels more like a classic, beautiful winter than having persistent snow cover. Of course this is different for you guys north and west, but I’m near sea level and not too far from the coast so it’s a much bigger ask. Still, when it does happen, *chef’s kiss.*

I also have vivid memories of 2009 where I lived in a house in Long Branch while going to school, and getting absolutely BURIED in a December storm. December blizzards feel impossible lately, you know? And then briefly lived in North Brunswick with my future wife through Dec 26 2010 and the subsequent massive storms that winter brought. Lot of these are backloaded in my memory, recently it seems we’ve more had isolated big events but little consistency.

I know it’s unlikely and growing ever more difficult, but I’m so ready for a wall to wall classic winter.  

2 hours ago, binbisso said:

8 straight days without a positive departure.  The next 10 days are all below normal on current guidance With coldest air mass of the season possibly next weekend.   1st frost/freeze for some of our northern burbs.  Haven't had a stretch like this in quite a long time

I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. 
 

I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. 
 

Thanks guys. 
 

edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks!

edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else. 

7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Amazing wind across the Deep South with Ian & pressure gradients.




.

How much does the pressure difference add to the power of the storm? So I gather that's what a "baroclinic zone" is?

Hard for me to quantify just how large that effect would be in this situation for example. Does the NHC factor that into the wind rating for Ian, or is it just sort of an additional influence that adds some additional power to the perceived surface winds?

Thanks to anyone, trying to wrap my head around this though I understand how a pressure gradient generates wind.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need the rain up here

What's the point of blocking now ?

Blocking the rain, of course. 

Hope the rain falls for those who need it! 
 

Loving the cool air, finally. 
 

Between Fiona and now 98L boy has ATL hurricane season ‘22 quickly resurrected itself. Potential Charley like track in there amongst the model noise? Long way off, interesting either way. Could be a bad one for the Gulf on a different track. 

No place for feelings in science, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting fall/winter one way or another. 
 

With the strong SH stratospheric cooling and the climate system’s tendency toward balance, maybe we get some stratospheric warming up here and a weakened PV (there was some correlation shown in an article linked a ways back, was interesting if nothing else). Or maybe the extra water vapor broadly keeps things slightly warmer. 
 

In other threads here I saw some speculation about a -NAO Dec with a potential fast start to winter (perhaps front loaded), but I remember last Dec originally being forecasted cold and, yeah big nope. Prob smarter to always assume we’ll be in shorts and flip flops Xmas day lol. 
 

One things for sure, after this consistently hot summer I’m well prepared to enjoy some cool crisp air, so I’m looking forward to the cold front and cooldown however long it lasts. Great hiking weather and my favorite time of year to be outside. 

47 for me as well this morning. Ocean Co NJ. 
 

Starting to get me excited for late fall and winter. Then I realized it’s probably gonna be 90 next week. 

Ah well taking what I can get. Beautiful morning. Crisp and refreshing. 

I’m in NJ but am absolutely ready for a cooler / colder winter. Last January felt like a tease. 
 

The 1/29 event was also one of the coldest snowstorms I can remember in my location a little inland from the Jersey shoreline (about 12 miles). We were in the lower to mid 20’s during snowfall which is few and far between for my location during big events as we more frequently straddle the freezing line. 
 

I have a particular interest in geology and volcanology (sure my username gives that away) but specifically how it relates to climatology, as large volcanic events throughout history have caused major climate disruptions. Especially a couple years after Tambora in 1815, after Laki in the 1780’s, Krakatau in the 1880’s, and most recently Pinatubo in 1991 (I’ve read its effects beyond cooling caused anomalous disruption to the jet streams and may have had a hand in the 1993 superstorm). Now we have HTHH which was anomalous as far as large explosive eruptions go as there was little sulphur flux (the main vehicle of volcanic cooling) but tons of water vapor. I saw the article about southern stratospheric cooling and its possible correlative link to NH stratospheric warming, though it’s comparitive years were not due to volcanic effects. 
 

Color me intrigued for this winter. I hope it’s a cold and productive one for all of us. 

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change.