Volcanic Winter

It sucks that the MJO may not be a magic bullet, but I’m grateful to continue learning about how it influences our weather. We can’t deny that if a decently strong amplitude cold phase of the MJO isn’t starting to register on the models in the form of even normal temps, that maybe it’s not capable of driving the pattern at the moment. 

Of course I’m hoping this changes. I want to break my good down parka back out I put away after Xmas in exchange for dry fit polos. 

21 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

It's a great question. I know some back in the summer were suggesting it was a warm signal for this winter, including HM. I'm sure lots of papers will be written on it in the years to come.

Yup, likely to be the first large eruption known to feature surface warming tied back to it. The only other exceptions are flood basalt eruptions, which are entirely different and separated temporally by millions of years.

I had some fleeting hopes other elements could win out and produce some favorability, but in reality that water vapor signal might be completely overpowering. You can’t deduce this stuff regionally as even severe volcanic-affected climate years have significant regional variability, but looking at what’s going on with Europe (although Eastern Europe is going to freeze soon) makes me wonder. 

Can’t wait until more is published about this. 

Edit: Just found this which I actually haven’t read before:

Might be illuminating with respect to this topic, though they’re using Krakatoa 1883 as a baseline. That eruption was significantly larger (roughly 3x) and injected an extreme amount of typical volcanic aerosols that produce cooling, unlike HTHH which most notably injected water vapor. So the conclusion may be based off an entirely different type of eruption. Still interesting. 

Enjoy the flakes guys, hoping it over-performs for you. 

Again I don’t know atmospheric physics well enough to answer this, but could the unprecedented stratospheric water vapor injection from Hunga Tonga last Jan be altering the tropical forcing in unexpected ways? Most large eruptions do NOT output as much water vapor, it’s unprecedented in the historical era. 

IF that has any hand, I would be somewhat concerned as the water vapor stays lofted longer than the 2-3 years of volcanic aerosols. 

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex

 

 

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I skimmed the study but don't have time to dig much deeper, it's very interesting. Do you know though if/how they account for the strength of the MJO wave, and what impact that has? Would be my only obvious question.

Thanks.

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. 

Only thing I’m counting on is continued learning and hopefully, eventually a surprise or two. 

Thanks for weighing in. 

Would love to read Bluewave’s take soon as well. 

I’m returning home from work early today with 68 on the Tempest and lots of darker cloud cover. No doubt that’s stopping me from the 70 mark right now. 

68 on my Tempest at the TR Manchester border. My AccuWeather App is showing 64 here at work west of EWR.
 

Pretty gross. To me, enjoy it guys if this is your thing. 

It’s rough, man. There’s truth to the statement that we’ve been “trolled” by favorable storm depictions that evaporate in the shorter medium term. It’s a bitter pill, you know?

I like you though MJO812, you keep the faith going because it rubs off on me sometimes. I don’t like taking a defeatist attitude about this stuff. 

Winter certainly isn’t over on Jan 4th no matter what it shows right now. Might be an uphill battle, but I have to believe this is not going to be a wall to wall shutout. Statistically of course they’re rare. 

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where is snowman19?  He should be here with bells on given this ratter.

I never minded him, truly. At least he would mostly back his takes up with analyses. He always came across as pretty sharp, to me. I guess it comes down to tact/tone with some posters. 

Tip in the NE forum gave an excellent analysis of how the MJO can vacillate between more or less impactful as a driver of the overall pattern. He definitely said it was not in a “constructive” state as of December. Unsure how that changed moving forward in time, but at least WRT the models it doesn’t seem as if they’re sniffing out any MJO help. 

Not sure whether to laugh or cry, so I just gave you a like. 

It stinks how much this one week torch sucked the life out of winter. I totally get that many don’t appreciate sharp cold without snow, but at least for me Dec was kinda fun. Had a winter to deep winter vibe and I finally got a cold Xmas. Every year I hope for that and I finally got something even beyond my best expectations. The day before Xmas Eve when the front pushed through was *crazy*, and at least I got to see some flakes fly with the dramatic temp drop as I was heading home from work. It really felt like Dec could be the start of an interesting winter. 

Can’t overemphasize it, we just need to get on the board. The area at least. Will go a long way to improving the vibe. 

Hey, this is better than not having anything at all. Let’s see how things evolve.

Busting out the Cersei memes, it must’ve been bad. Though I for sure would’ve appreciated the 80’s cold waves. I’m a bit of an arctic… arcto..phile?

2009-2011 was drool worthy for me. My place in Long Branch while going to school at MU got buried in that Dec storm, and then I spent Boxing Day and the rest of that insane winter in North Brunswick in an apartment with my future wife. We moved south shortly after but still had some really awesome winters in the 2010’s and a few extremely memorable events. The past few years have been wholly dispiriting, though of course with some brighter moments like last Jan. The Feb 1 2021 storm I only experienced at work (18 inches), my house got about 5. 
 

I too grew up in an era of big snow in Central NJ, so perhaps many of us are just spoiled. Never knew the 80’s doldrums. 

Clinging hard to the snow and cold we had in North Iceland in November. Was a great trip. 
 

I’m about ready for a “Classic northeast Day After Tomorrow pattern.”

This is peak depression climo for me. Warm heavy rain in January. Doesn’t get much more dispiriting. 

57 on my Tempest (TR / Manchester border), 49 up at work (Hillside) currently. 

Barf. 

Given the active train of waves, I’m still thinking we’ll avoid a complete shutout. It’s the only thing keeping us even slightly in the game right now it looks like. Regardless, seems unavoidable that we’ll be sweating temps unless something really comes together perfectly, but at least there’s stuff to watch. 

Small victories?

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

SN+ is heavy snow.

SN- is light snow.

 

Excellent, thank you! 

Not to interrupt a good discussion, I’m just curious what -SN or SN+ means? I’ve seen that a few places aside your username, Easton - especially on the NE boards. My best context guess is whether snow is sticking to all surfaces or not? I’m sure that’s wrong, but I think it refers to a snowfall characteristic.

Thanks. 

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I dont like February snow. Month is too short and I'm ready for spring. Late January too..and early January. I only like mid January snow

I prefer my snow on January 14th. If it snows any other day, I send it back. 

Got me beat Rjay, but 1/29 was pretty fun my ways too:

We’re really putting the tropical in humid subtropical.