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WxSynopsisDavid

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    Severe Weather 5-6 through 5-8-24

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

    SPC has highlighted a swath of the plains from TX to NE for D6. May is in full swing!

      

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous
   thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from
   the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F
   dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly
   surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow
   will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western
   upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall
   severe potential through Sunday/D5.

   For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in
   depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and
   emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place
   ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains
   with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry
   differences exist amongst the models, the combination of
   strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample
   moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe
   probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of
   severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,
   squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

   ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024

    Screenshot_20240501_195807.jpg

    Shouldn’t the thread headline read “5-6-24” instead of “4-6-24”?

    • Haha 1

    Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-24

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Chinook said:

    Only EF -3 for one of the largest ones near Omaha

    only EF 3.jpg

    My understanding is that it is still preliminary. I believe Tim Marshall is going to Elkhorn tomorrow to survey. He was in Marietta today and his findings at the Dollar Tree Distribution Center was the reason that tornado got upgraded to EF4.

    Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-24

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    4000+ SBCAPE along the OK/KS border. Latest guidance showing a string of pearls. Supercells maintain separation and intensify as they enter into the Moderate Risk hatched area. 
     

    Nadocast really starting to go bonkers. Will be interesting to see what the NWS SPC does at next outlook.

    IMG_5508.jpeg

    IMG_5510.jpeg

    IMG_5509.png

    • Like 1

    Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-24

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Quincy said:

    Yeah. Tomorrow looks ugly. If for nothing else, you could see a Moderate Risk, simply for the fact that the storms are likely, regardless of storm mode, supercell longevity, etc. Whether they are numerous or more isolated/intense, it seems like the overall probability of severe across central into eastern Oklahoma is quite high and may warrant higher severe probabilities.

    Really the only things that could dampen the threat a bit would be a mass of early day storms and outflow, along with messy storm modes. Even in this “best” case, it seems probable that a storm or two threads the needle. 

    Buckle up. 

    I absolutely agree with your analysis so far. If storm mode is not messy later today, this environment has the hallmark and look of a classic tornado outbreak. Hard to imagine it surpassing what we seen yesterday. However, the parameter space is more significant. Very possible if things come together this could be a Friday repeat but over a much larger areal capacity. 

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