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WxSynopsisDavid

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  1. WxSynopsisDavid
    That 902mb measurement also had 22kt winds. That would make it 899mb. Really does suck that we don’t have a recon flight making another pass.
  2. WxSynopsisDavid
    There are a ton of peer-reviewed articles and the NOAA NHC have held seminars discussing this.
  3. WxSynopsisDavid
    An ERC is not always a guarantee. If the environment is pristine, the cyclone is healthy, and the cyclone roots in at the surface it takes full advantage of its environment. These scenarios are rare, and a lot of us in this forum never seen it happen until Melissa. When this happens, you don’t get traditional ERC’s. They are MERC’s and they don’t weaken the cyclone: they typically lead to rapid or explosive intensification.
  4. WxSynopsisDavid
    As far as today is concerned, there’s been no ERC or MERC. Yesterday, Melissa underwent an MERC. But I don’t know where those Twitter forecasters come up with the conclusion that it happened again today.
  5. WxSynopsisDavid
    It is, “merged eyewall replacement cycle” is what Melissa did yesterday. An MERC does not weaken a hurricane, it instead leads to rapid or explosive intensification. MERC are usually seen with these small, compact high-end canes.
  6. WxSynopsisDavid
    906mb in W/SW quadrant
  7. WxSynopsisDavid
    If an ERC happens, windfield expands. It’s almost fair to say the “best case scenario” from the wind and surge aspect is for Melissa to landfall with no ERC before landfall. If an ERC occurs, that tight window of Cat4/Cat5 5 winds will double or triple in size. Also, the storm surge would compound and grow higher.
  8. WxSynopsisDavid
    Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad.
  9. WxSynopsisDavid
    I think at this juncture, given the pristine environment until landfall and how healthy Melissa is, it’s hard to fathom any additional intensification. Melissa is making a serious run at sub-900 pressure in a tight window before landfall.
  10. WxSynopsisDavid
  11. WxSynopsisDavid
    Adjusted to 907mb
  12. WxSynopsisDavid
    907mb
  13. WxSynopsisDavid
    WOW!!! Between passes, gusts go from 194kts to 210kts. In the more recent dropsonde, notice how the temperature and dewpoint lines zigzag at the bottom. This means the dropsonde rotated and touched all 4 quads of the eye. Melissa is in extremely rare air, officially the 3rd highest gusts ever recorded by recon hunters.
  14. WxSynopsisDavid
    Recon measured 158kts in the north eyewall at the surface. This equates to 180-185mph range for surface winds.
  15. WxSynopsisDavid
    917mb in N/NE quad. Along with the 140kts they measured earlier in the NE quad, Melissa will now be upgraded to a Category 5. Either we get a special advisory or they wait for 5am.
  16. WxSynopsisDavid
    Your assumption on ERC is wrong, point of my remark. The asymmetry is from friction and the trough. There’s also deep convection that fired in the east quadrant. Melissa is showing no signs of weakening. I mean, we literally have pressure falling and winds increasing on each recon pass right now.
  17. WxSynopsisDavid
    Also, asymmetry can happen in Category 5’s when they start to feel friction with the coast.
  18. WxSynopsisDavid
    No, recon hunter data confirms no ERC is ongoing or imminent. What is happening to cause the asymmetry is deep convection firing. Melissa is undergoing another RI process. We just happen to have recon hunters inside the storm this time.
  19. WxSynopsisDavid
    140kts in NE quad
  20. WxSynopsisDavid
    918mb in southwest/western quadrant. We have 923mb in S/SE quad and 918mb in W/SW quad. Very impressive readings in the weakest quads of an Atlantic hurricane.
  21. WxSynopsisDavid
    Recon Hunters are currently inside Melissa. Those previous readings were measured in the south quadrant. In Atlantic hurricanes, the south quad typically features weaker winds and higher pressure. The higher winds and lowest pressure (peak intensity) reside in the northeast quadrant. So process that for a minute. The weaker quadrant of the hurricane measured at 923mb with 150mph winds. What do you think they will find in the northeast quadrant?
  22. WxSynopsisDavid
    I still stand with 910-920mb and 170-180mph winds for my bet on the northeast quadrant reading. Any final bets or adjustments to previous bets?
  23. WxSynopsisDavid
    I think very few of us in here actually look at TWC for tropical weather insight. Melissa is likely in the 170-180mph range right now. Just need the northeast quadrant eyewall measured to confirm.
  24. WxSynopsisDavid
    Historic and likely one for the record books. Top-5 or Top-10 reading inbound.
  25. WxSynopsisDavid
    Wilma is the GOAT. At least we never got to witness Wilma’s peak on landfall.
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