CentralNJSnowman

That’s pretty interesting. There may be some seasonality or other cyclical factors so you may only get a clear picture of the ongoing rate of erosion over a period of multiple years

Heavy here (monroe township) too. Looks like 1/2” down already. Was not really expecting this.

12z GFS says we do it again next Monday

Yeah - I just got in from two hours of shoveling and snowblowing...and probably have another two hours to do later in the day. How much snow do you think we have so far?

No real idea how much we have here but I saw a report of 22” in freehold, which is pretty nearby and I would definitely believe that. My neighbor has been shoveling his driveway for an hour and has really made significant progress.

Looks like still to come from 6am

The guy who posted the ‘yikes’ lives pretty far west in NJ. That run was bad for his area.

I’m near you (Monroe) and it started sticking to my street about 10-15 minutes. Things just feel the start of a blizzard. I have a good feeling about this.

Kind of surprised at the quantity of rain here in central nj. Seems like we’ve had about 1/4” already and probably hours more till the temp drops and the white rain begins. not sure if that’s good (more moisture than expected) or bad (more of the moisture is being wasted)

It really shouldn’t. No accumulations forecasted till afternoon and not much till very late afternoon

Mount holly upped my area to 18-25”

And then she added "And by the way...I doubt the snowstorm will be that big either"

That's beginning to feel like it might be the most likely mode of 'failure' at this point. Canadian showed a pretty sharp East/West cutoff in NJ. Fingers crossed that it doesn't play out that way.

Not 1996. Might have been 2006.

Feels like with most storms after the fact, there tends to be a lot of confusion (and maybe a bit of revisionist history) about which model 'got things right'. That's probably due in part to all the models waffling back and forth at different time ranges. With this storm, there should be absolutely no question...if ends up being a non-event, the Euro nailed it. If it ends up being a major snowstorm for our area, the GFS nailed it. Neither of them have really varied much at all (while the others have all moved somewhat from run to run).